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When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Kikapu » Sun Mar 10, 2013 8:35 pm

bill cobbett wrote:These National Debt clocks are fun... well, if we can't laugh at the debts we'd all be crying... :bawling:

This is the one for Turkey which needs 1,400 TL to service the debt every... OMG! ... every single second!...

http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/turkey


It seems like Turkey is paying about 8.5% interest on their national debt, whereas the UK is paying only about 2.5%.

It goes to show which economy and country is more trusted by the debt holders! :wink:
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Viewpoint » Mon Mar 11, 2013 12:30 am

B25 wrote:
Anippe wrote:I hate the turkish for Cyprus invasion but it true I like Istanbul morer then Athens. Sorry to my fellow Greeks

I have lived in 11 countries

fantastic projects in Istanbul

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=295886


No such place as Istanbul it is called Constantinople you ignorant pig.


This is classic Gc ignorance and blindness, man you need help and fast.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Maximus » Sun Mar 24, 2013 3:32 am

24 March 2013

The free trade agreement (FTA) the European Union and the US have agreed to conclude is expected to adversely affect the Turkish economy, raising concerns among Turkish businesspeople and top economy officials.

“This would have a huge negative effect on our trade with the US,” Rızanur Meral, president of the Turkish Confederation of Business-men and Industrialists (TUSKON), recently said.

On a Voice of America broadcast in mid-March, Meral said: “This is a great danger for Turkey. In the future, the trade imbalance between Turkey and the US would further increase.

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-310557-.html
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Nikitas » Sun Mar 24, 2013 3:04 pm

I happen to know one industry rather well, and therefore can judge both the financial reasons that parts of it moved to Turkey as well as the results. What I see is unprecedented state help for startups, generous export subsidies, zero environmental controls, super low social insurance costs. To give an example: the metal finishing process which in Italy must by law be in certified buildings with special air filters, worker protection, redundant recycling and entrapment systems, in Turkey happens in the OPEN AIR!!! No wonder it is cheaper to transfer manufacturing there.

Then there is the R&D costs. Turkish companies simply reverse engineer products in this sector, paying zilch for development and FA for patent use. This is not a major cost, but it shows the mentality behind the push to maximise exports at all costs. Those who tried to recoup on patent infringement found that the courts are not that interested.

Subsidies are high and encourage dumping, that is selling goods in the foreign markets at cost or below, because the subsidies make up the difference and then some.

All the above are illegal under EU regulations. No European country can compete simply because it cannot suspend environmental protection or offer export subsidies.

Now as to the quality of the goods. In some it approaches the original, managing to offer about 60 per cent of the quality, in most it is way behind. In all cases there is almost zero local initiative shown. The situation reminds me of the state of Spanish manufacturing in the 70s and 80s and Japanese copies of the 60s. This is the most disturbing part of the situation because no industry can survive without local innovation. What is even more disturbing is that offering 60 er cent of the quality at half the price is still not enough to establish Turkish goods as a presence in this particular market. Consumers are aware that they are buying second rate. After years of trying there is still not one single maker who can claim to be offering a top product. Spanish makers in the same area have only just recently managed to place their products in the top tier, and only after undergoing a drastic restructuring of their industry which reduced their companies from hundreds to less than twenty.

I am not gloating nor predicting doom. Just noting that some of the conditions that give a leg up to Turkish manufacturing are untenable long term.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Jerry » Tue Apr 02, 2013 6:24 pm

Will Turkey be joining the ROC for a bailout soon? Economic growth has slowed and the lira has fallen against the euro today. Perhaps the EU won't join Turkey after all. :lol:


“Market experts agreed on Monday that the economy had experienced what is called a “hard landing” with the below-expected growth rate. Turkey experienced strong growth, which was mainly supported by domestic consumption, between 2010 and 2011. The low savings rate and dependency on foreign energy sources -- which are subjected to volatile price increases -- led to a high current account deficit (CAD).”

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-311325- ... rcent.html
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Nikitas » Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:34 pm

The Turkish economists I read worry about the credit fueled domestic consumption. They talk of a 30 per cent annual increase in domestic borrowing to finance this consumption. It is reminiscent of Greece five to ten years ago. You were afraid to pick up the phone (pre caller ID days!) because it was likely some credit card dude trying to get you to sign up.

The other titbit that I picked up is that Turkey is statistically and economically divided into two nations. The west has a birth rate of 1,6 children per married couple, pretty much like Europe, the east has about 4 children per couple. The divisions and the rest of the stats follow along those lines.

So the reality is not as rosy as the projected picture. But a country that is free of EU nonsense regulations and prints its own currency, and which is not uner the thumb of the Eurogroup, will most likely avoid the worst of any downturn. That there will be a downturn, that seems inevitable. You cannot be prospering when all your clients are in recession.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Viewpoint » Wed Apr 03, 2013 12:36 am

Still better than Greece and south Cyprus.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Lordo » Wed Apr 03, 2013 12:50 am

this idea that terkish economy will collapse has been around for soem time. i would have thought that the educated people would wake up by now. next thing you will be telling us that jesus did really come back from the dead twice.

whats going on with the gc intelligentsia are they all fast asleep. god give us strength if only he bloomin existed.

Terkey two nations, give us a break will you, usa is 10 nations from bagladesh to germany. did you know that there are farmers who cannot afford to eat what they produce in the usa. which bloody planet do you people live on.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby bill cobbett » Wed Apr 03, 2013 1:54 am

So Turkeyiyeye's economy expands 2.2% in 2012 and the inflation rate is ... let's have a look... oh... it's 7% ...!!!

... so in real terms the great and mighty Turkish economy contracted by nearly 5% ... wow! some economic powerhouse...!!!
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Viewpoint » Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:23 am

Still better than Greece and south Cyprus.
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