Cyprus-Forum.com

[Pyrpolizer]

The truth is Turkey has attracted foreign investment especially from the EU and can show rising rates of growth.
Let's assume that this is just a bubble that will burst sooner or later.
Will that benefit the Kypreoi if it occurs? And what about the Kibrislis, will it benefit them given the fact they depend on Turkey's financial support? In the end will it help solve the CP or will the militants rise again and screw us all?

[Demonax]

The truth is Turkey has attracted foreign investment especially from the EU and can show rising rates of growth.
Let's assume that this is just a bubble that will burst sooner or later.
Will that benefit the Kypreoi if it occurs? And what about the Kibrislis, will it benefit them given the fact they depend on Turkey's financial support? In the end will it help solve the CP or will the militants rise again and screw us all?

Just a couple of things. First, the foreign investment amounts to around 15 per cent of the deficit, the rest is external debt. Although the Turkish economy has been growing at an impressive rate, this is the result of financial manipulation. Turkey's central bank has been giving out cheap loans (really election bribes) which are financed through loans that the Central Bank has taken out externally. This is what Argentina and Mexico did in the 1990s before they went bust.

Turkey has no natural resources, a backward hinterland, a declining fertility rate (except amongst Kurds), regional instability and no skilled labour force to offer. They rely entirely, for the moment, on the confidence of the financial markets. If these markets decide to shut them out then the economy will collapse very quickly. If Erdogan continues with his Islamist direction, and takes Turkey further from the EU, then this will happen sooner rather than later.

Whatever the Turks say, their economy is built on shifting sand. For Cyprus it's all about the long game. At the moment Erdogan believes in his own illusions. Our strategy has always been to make the Turks pay a heavy financial and diplomatic price for the occupation of the north. This should continue to be our strategy and not to fall for the myth of an omnipotent powerful Turkey. That would be a big mistake.

[Pyrpolizer]

The truth is Turkey has attracted foreign investment especially from the EU and can show rising rates of growth.
Let's assume that this is just a bubble that will burst sooner or later.
Will that benefit the Kypreoi if it occurs? And what about the Kibrislis, will it benefit them given the fact they depend on Turkey's financial support? In the end will it help solve the CP or will the militants rise again and screw us all?

Just a couple of things. First, the foreign investment amounts to around 15 per cent of the deficit, the rest is external debt. Although the Turkish economy has been growing at an impressive rate, this is the result of financial manipulation. Turkey's central bank has been giving out cheap loans (really election bribes) which are financed through loans that the Central Bank has taken out externally. This is what Argentina and Mexico did in the 1990s before they went bust.

Turkey has no natural resources, a backward hinterland, a declining fertility rate (except amongst Kurds), regional instability and no skilled labour force to offer. They rely entirely, for the moment, on the confidence of the financial markets. If these markets decide to shut them out then the economy will collapse very quickly. If Erdogan continues with his Islamist direction, and takes Turkey further from the EU, then this will happen sooner rather than later.

Whatever the Turks say, their economy is built on shifting sand. For Cyprus it's all about the long game. At the moment Erdogan believes in his own illusions. Our strategy has always been to make the Turks pay a heavy financial and diplomatic price for the occupation of the north. This should continue to be our strategy and not to fall for the myth of an omnipotent powerful Turkey. That would be a big mistake.

My friend let's admit it that whatever would possibly happen to Turkey's economy has nothing to do with any strategy of ours. My concern is what would be the impact -in case the Turkish economy collapses- to our own problem.
As long as I remember Turkey's economy was never healthy and all they were doing was changing governments all the time, while the militants were holding the strings.
Furthermore if it collapses there goes away whatever EU ambitions they had and whatever EU leverage we ever had.

[repulsewarrior]

...indeed, Turkey thinks it is too big to fail. Erdogan has the idea to play a Putin with Gul so that their programs can continue, toward a "new" deep state. a great deal relies on the stability or shall we say instability, that revolves around Turkey and her International partners, deals can be made in such a state, compromises on Principals, much news for internal consumption and side deals in secret where (this) Turkey can by implication induce her desires, as well as influence matters where otherwise their influence is none.

...Turkey has it seems, done itself no favors with its "zero friend" policy. but, her strong allies, such as China, Brazil, and Pakistan (as well as other Middle Countries), are the direct competitors to Turkey's Western face; will they take Erdogan's refusal to pay "the Banks" with the same calm as they display today? it may be that the Plan B is to fight, the "West", assuming dark forces exist everywhere and the collapse will explode in instability widely, by force, securing for themselves the primordial influence as allies.

..."Banks" are not our friends; i fear that the Leadership in Turkey is neo-Ottoman, its intention is to turn this sense into the "West", being the enemy, toward expanding their "Turkish" dominion.

@Pyrpoliser, well said. by putting our own house in order, we are stonger for it. whatever Turkey does, with its present leadership has been far from the illusions they make. Cyprus cannot compromise, in effect, it represents an order which defines people as Human Beings, and so far its support is not exhausted from Turkey's persistence in refusing to recognise this fact.

[Viewpoint]

God the doom and gloom merchants are out in force.

[Maximus]

If Turkeys economy collapses then we can assume that the economy of the TTTT will also collapse since it will have no support or access to markets. The affect this would have on the people living there and what they do about it, stay or flee is yet to be seen.

[Viewpoint]

If Turkeys economy collapses then we can assume that the economy of the TTTT will also collapse since it will have no support or access to markets. The affect this would have on the people living there and what they do about it, stay or flee is yet to be seen.

Ho vey ho vey then they will have to submit to alll your demands, please hold your breath and wait.

[Maximus]

probably three quarters of the people should not be there in the first place. They should get out of there.

[Pyrpolizer]

God the doom and gloom merchants are out in force.

VP I understand you beleive nothing will happen to the Turkish economy.
I also understand this is the wish of most Kibrislis, because they rely on Turkey's financial support and without it they feel they would be obliged to yield to the demands of the Kypreoi. In this respect you believe a strong Turkish economy is a factor that will help reach a balanced solution.
So do you think an even better Turkish economy will help solve the Cyprus problem, or will it drive us more into the status quo?

[Maximus]

...Turkey has it seems, done itself no favors with its "zero friend" policy.

The man himself has failed to prove his theories of strategic depth. Corroding relations with the west, what kind of 'bridge' can Turkey be towards the east?