Kikapu wrote:With the rise of oil prices as well as the depreciation of the Turkish Lira, I expect it will cost Turkey additional 10-15 Billion US Dollars more per year for their imported energy needs. This will of course be passed onto the consumers who are already paying the most expensive petrol in the world, not to mention higher infation rate.
Yes, and the cost of production is going to increase too.
I am looking at some indicators to try and determine where the price of oil is going to go, deciding whether to trade it or not. My assertion is that further price rises are likely. Fundamentally speaking, the ducks are lining up. Given the situation in Syria, any military intervention will act as a further catalyst causing prices to spike even higher. Its currently trading at $109 per barrel and the most recent highs of 2011 is at $115. If the price breaks this level, then there is not much stopping it from continuing its upward trend to test the all time highs of 2008, $140 per barrel. (tip
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if this little 'fart' in the market has already cost Turkey $300m, what will an increase in price of $31 per barrel cost her?
Things are not looking good all round but in the case of Turkey and her economy, this is going to be another devastating blow. All bubbles and manias collapse, eventually and Turkeys economic miracle has all the signs to characterize it as such, a bubble.
How sustainable is this GDP trend? Its gone parabolic already and parabolic growth is just not sustainable. The median seems to be at around $400b and a retracement back to these levels would normalize it in my opinion. That's probably where it should be.
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