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When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Maximus » Thu Aug 29, 2013 1:49 pm

Turkey’s foreign trade gap has widened in July as imports rise and dwarf exports.

The country recorded a trade deficit of $9.81 billion in July, marking a 22.5 percent rise from last year’s same period, according to data released by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TÜİK).

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey ... sCatID=344
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Maximus » Thu Aug 29, 2013 1:50 pm

Lordo wrote:pop down the high street and see how many terkish products you can buy in average high street. of course the saving on the exports may not be passed on the the consumers but who cares so long as the parasites make more profit then they will push the terkish products harder. talking of collapsing economies you really would do a lot better if you concentrated on how the greek and gc economies will be recovering. unless of course you have given up on them.


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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Maximus » Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:08 pm

The recent jump in oil prices has already cost Turkey a $300 million, the country’s energy minister has said.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/oil-pr ... sCatID=344
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Kikapu » Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:19 pm

Maximus wrote:The recent jump in oil prices has already cost Turkey a $300 million, the country’s energy minister has said.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/oil-pr ... sCatID=344


With the rise of oil prices as well as the depreciation of the Turkish Lira, I expect it will cost Turkey additional 10-15 Billion US Dollars more per year for their imported energy needs. This will of course be passed onto the consumers who are already paying the most expensive petrol in the world, not to mention higher infation rate.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Maximus » Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:58 pm

Kikapu wrote:
Maximus wrote:The recent jump in oil prices has already cost Turkey a $300 million, the country’s energy minister has said.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/oil-pr ... sCatID=344


With the rise of oil prices as well as the depreciation of the Turkish Lira, I expect it will cost Turkey additional 10-15 Billion US Dollars more per year for their imported energy needs. This will of course be passed onto the consumers who are already paying the most expensive petrol in the world, not to mention higher infation rate.


Yes, and the cost of production is going to increase too.

I am looking at some indicators to try and determine where the price of oil is going to go, deciding whether to trade it or not. My assertion is that further price rises are likely. Fundamentally speaking, the ducks are lining up. Given the situation in Syria, any military intervention will act as a further catalyst causing prices to spike even higher. Its currently trading at $109 per barrel and the most recent highs of 2011 is at $115. If the price breaks this level, then there is not much stopping it from continuing its upward trend to test the all time highs of 2008, $140 per barrel. (tip :wink: )

if this little 'fart' in the market has already cost Turkey $300m, what will an increase in price of $31 per barrel cost her?

Things are not looking good all round but in the case of Turkey and her economy, this is going to be another devastating blow. All bubbles and manias collapse, eventually and Turkeys economic miracle has all the signs to characterize it as such, a bubble.

How sustainable is this GDP trend? Its gone parabolic already and parabolic growth is just not sustainable. The median seems to be at around $400b and a retracement back to these levels would normalize it in my opinion. That's probably where it should be.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Kikapu » Thu Aug 29, 2013 9:22 pm

Kikapu wrote:
Maximus wrote:The recent jump in oil prices has already cost Turkey a $300 million, the country’s energy minister has said.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/oil-pr ... sCatID=344


With the rise of oil prices as well as the depreciation of the Turkish Lira, I expect it will cost Turkey additional 10-15 Billion US Dollars more per year for their imported energy needs. This will of course be passed onto the consumers who are already paying the most expensive petrol in the world, not to mention higher infation rate.


Well, as I was saying!

Gas prices rise by 14 kr, diesel up 17 kr

29 August 2013 /TODAY'S ZAMAN, İSTANBUL
Not even a week has passed since a recent price hike in fuel oil, but Turkey will see gas prices go up by TL 0.14 per liter and diesel oil prices rise by TL 0.17 per liter on Friday at 12:01 a.m.
The increasing exchange rate and the rising prices of crude oil are cited as the reason behind the move. The newest rise brought the pump price of a liter (nearly a quarter gallon) of 95-octane unleaded gasoline in İstanbul up to TL 5.06 from TL 4.92.

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-324906- ... 17-kr.html
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Lordo » Fri Aug 30, 2013 1:57 pm

Maximus wrote:
Kikapu wrote:
Maximus wrote:The recent jump in oil prices has already cost Turkey a $300 million, the country’s energy minister has said.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/oil-pr ... sCatID=344


With the rise of oil prices as well as the depreciation of the Turkish Lira, I expect it will cost Turkey additional 10-15 Billion US Dollars more per year for their imported energy needs. This will of course be passed onto the consumers who are already paying the most expensive petrol in the world, not to mention higher infation rate.


Yes, and the cost of production is going to increase too.

I am looking at some indicators to try and determine where the price of oil is going to go, deciding whether to trade it or not. My assertion is that further price rises are likely. Fundamentally speaking, the ducks are lining up. Given the situation in Syria, any military intervention will act as a further catalyst causing prices to spike even higher. Its currently trading at $109 per barrel and the most recent highs of 2011 is at $115. If the price breaks this level, then there is not much stopping it from continuing its upward trend to test the all time highs of 2008, $140 per barrel. (tip :wink: )

if this little 'fart' in the market has already cost Turkey $300m, what will an increase in price of $31 per barrel cost her?

Things are not looking good all round but in the case of Turkey and her economy, this is going to be another devastating blow. All bubbles and manias collapse, eventually and Turkeys economic miracle has all the signs to characterize it as such, a bubble.

How sustainable is this GDP trend? Its gone parabolic already and parabolic growth is just not sustainable. The median seems to be at around $400b and a retracement back to these levels would normalize it in my opinion. That's probably where it should be.

must you shoot yourself in the foot every time. look at the graph again. Greece with under 11 million people have comparing with terkish 75 million population. greece has more than twice the figure per population. your ancestors are turning in their graves. you cant even add 2 and 2 together. you get 22.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Maximus » Fri Aug 30, 2013 2:25 pm

Lordo wrote:must you shoot yourself in the foot every time. look at the graph again. Greece with under 11 million people have comparing with terkish 75 million population. greece has more than twice the figure per population. your ancestors are turning in their graves. you cant even add 2 and 2 together. you get 22.


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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Lordo » Fri Aug 30, 2013 5:23 pm

why what you done now.

did you fart and did not realise and follow through like what betrovromoshilla does every day.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Maximus » Fri Aug 30, 2013 8:05 pm

I just want to know what comparing 11 million people in Greece with a 75 million Turkish population has to do with 2 and 2 = 22?

How does this fit in with a 50% retracement in Turkeys GDP? Down from nearly $800b to around $400b.
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