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When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Demonax » Tue Jul 09, 2013 2:52 pm

Kikapu wrote: It's nice by them to try and fool the gullible, but they can't fool the world's markets. Sure, it will help the Lira on the short term to sell off some dollars, but that won't last too long.


Yes, resorting to desperate measures will not fool the markets in the long run. As this article in the WSJ makes clear, Turkey is boxed in a corner:

The only other viable alternative for Turkey's policy makers is to raise interest rates, some investors said. Turkey's war chest is smaller than that of, say, Brazil, so its ability to keep fighting for a stronger lira is limited, they said. Turkey has less than $45 billion in foreign-exchange reserves that commercial banks don't have a claim on, according to analyst estimates. That is about 10% lower than on June 11, when the central bank first began intervening.

But Turkey's central bank has been reluctant to take the step of raising rates for fear of further quashing already-slow economic growth. Like many other central banks, Turkey's central bank steadily cut rates in past months to head off currency appreciation caused by the inflows from investment funds.

"The central bank is trying to make a stand, but people are going to start counting what foreign-exchange reserves they have left," said Angus Halkett, who oversees emerging-market debt at Stone Harbor Investment Partners, which has $68 billion under management. "They will need to hike interest rates in some way. But they are backing themselves into a corner at the moment."


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 74464.html
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby bill cobbett » Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:02 pm

Yes, the international bankers will make some easy money... cos they can see Turey's hand of cards.

They know how much foreign reserves it has, they know Turkey has and will use them to support the TL, they know the intervention levels and they also know that Turkey is reluctant to raise interest rates but sooner rather than later it will raise them.

Money for old rope.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby bill cobbett » Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:06 pm

... and the bankers also know that in a few weeks time they'll be another hint from the US Fed that it'll back off QE later in the year.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Maximus » Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:21 pm

bill cobbett wrote:Yes, the international bankers will make some easy money... cos they can see Turey's hand of cards.

They know how much foreign reserves it has, they know Turkey has and will use them to support the TL, they know the intervention levels and they also know that Turkey is reluctant to raise interest rates but sooner rather than later it will raise them.

Money for old rope.


spot on.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby bill cobbett » Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:23 pm

Maximus wrote:
bill cobbett wrote:Yes, the international bankers will make some easy money... cos they can see Turey's hand of cards.

They know how much foreign reserves it has, they know Turkey has and will use them to support the TL, they know the intervention levels and they also know that Turkey is reluctant to raise interest rates but sooner rather than later it will raise them.

Money for old rope.


spot on.


It's gonna be a Turkey Shoot file .. as people like K might say.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Demonax » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:18 am

Turkey 'Looks Vulnerable' as Unrest Flares Again

"On the face of it, the intervention by Turkey's central bank was huge," Shearing added. "It was supposedly a massive demonstration of power by the Turkish central bank and all they got out of it was a paltry rally in the lira. History has shown us that central bank intervention in this way does not have a lasting effect."

Shearing said the Turkish central bank's foreign exchange reserves were, at $45 billion, not sizable. "To say you've burnt through about $2 billion of that in a day, like the central bank did - you can only do that for another 20 days and markets know that, making the effect on them insignificant."

Support for the lira would be hard to maintain unless interest rates rise too - a move that the central bank has so far resisted, he added. "I think that's the only thing that they can do. High interest rates suck in the capital. But I think we'll see market rates drift up - as we have seen - rather than policy rates."


http://www.cnbc.com/id/100872061?
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Viewpoint » Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:28 am

Can you update us whats happening economically in Greece and south Cyprus?
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Demonax » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:23 pm

Viewpoint wrote:Can you update us whats happening economically in Greece and south Cyprus?


There are threads for that already. This thread is about the state of the Turkish economy.
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Demonax » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:25 pm

Lira Weakens First Day in 3 as Fitch Warns Turkey Rating at Risk

The Turkish lira declined for the first time in three days and bond risk jumped the most in two weeks after Fitch Ratings said a lengthy period of social unrest could put the nation’s investment-grade status at risk.

The lira slid 0.4 percent to 1.9497 per dollar at 12:17 p.m. in Istanbul, after gaining as much as 0.3 percent. The costs to protect against default on Turkish debt climbed 17 basis points, or 0.17 percentage point, to 220. The yield on two-year notes rose 29 basis points to 8.89 percent.

Fitch, which raised Turkey to investment grade in November, said “prolonged social unrest, poorly handled, could deter tourism, exacerbate short-term capital outflows, drive-up inflation and damage economic growth, potentially putting Turkey’s sovereign rating at risk.” Yields rose as investors weighed prospects for scaling back U.S. stimulus before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its June meeting today.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-07-1 ... -risk.html?
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Re: When will Turkey's economic bubble burst?

Postby Lordo » Wed Jul 10, 2013 4:40 pm

just a few years ago it was 100% per year. blimey things must be improving.

has anybody heard the noise when it burst or was it charluibullaruimus who each let one go again in unison.
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