by rotate » Sat Oct 29, 2005 1:10 am
Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott is possibly the last 'Old Labour' cabinet level minister left in Tony Bush oops! meant Blair's 'New Labour' government.
JP or 2Jags as he is also known (he owns two Jaguar cars) is probably Tony Blair's staunchest supporter although at times he has proved to be an embarrassment as he can shoot from the hip politically and throw a punch or two physically when roused. Regarded by many as pre-historic, JP a former merchant seaman is however a survivor and an astute observer of political trends. By and large JP is in equal measure both loved and loathed by the UK electorate who love him for his no nonsense old fashioned politics and loathe him for his almost unquestioning support of Blair (although this may be questionable after fell out with the rest of the cabinet over an education matter last week).
The Iraq cock-up and the falling popularity of US President Bush is bad news for Blair who now needs to be seen to have succeeded at something during his final term as Prime Minister. The European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) fiasco and Customs Tariffs have been quite rightly on Blair's 'To Do' list for some time but he cannot overcome the resistance of France and Germany to the changes that need to be made, so its time for some horse trading. Cyprus has and still remains a major stumbling block for Turkish entry into the EU, the more sceptical amongst us would perhaps consider that the Cyprus situation is one that suits many European politicians very well as its the best possible reason for excluding Turkey from the club without appearing to be overtly racist or anti Islamic. This sets the stage for a deal to be struck within the EU for the the minutely gradual lessening of UK support for Turkish EU membership in exchange for the eventual overhaul of the CAP the UK rebate and the Tariffs. The rejection by the electorate of France and Holland of the European Constitution has been read or perhaps misread as a rejection of further EU expansion and/or the inclusion of Turkey within Europe, this upset has confused the European political elite who have striven to regain the high ground in European politics, perhaps unwittingly Turkish politicians have by some of their more recent statements regarding Cyprus helped the EU politicians regain this high ground.
Tony Blair could not outwardly be seen to be cooling towards Turkish EU membership but the introduction by his messenger John Prescott of the term 'illegal occupation' of Cyprus by the Turkish Army is perhaps a sign that the sands have shifted a millimetre or two. If Blair does not get what he wants from Europe on the CAP and the Tariffs the sands can shift backwards and any reference to John Prescott's 'illegal occupation' statement can be waived aside as 2Jags just shooting from the hip again.
Where does this leave Cyprus? unfortunately and as always as the 'Meat in the Sandwich'. Turkish EU membership may possibly have helped resolve the Cyprus problem but this is at best questionable. Rejection of Turkey by the EU will most likely be blamed on Cyprus regardless of any stance taken by Cypriot politicians on the matter whilst the rest of Europe's politicians will be more than happy to let Cyprus take the blame.
If there ever was a time for John Prescott to throw a thirty one year late punch now is that time!