Cyprus-Forum.com

[BirKibrisli]

Birkibrisli, what we have here is a country with population over 65 million with one of the top 10 armies in the world occupying part of our country. The army of Turkey is larger than our whole population. If we are to hold this army for some days it is required that all of us can become soldiers in case of war.

This is not what we want, this is what we are forced to do.

Say we didn't have an army, or we had a very week one and Turkey one day decided to invade us again. Then what? What would stop them? International law? Human rights? We already know they don't care about these things.

Believe me I know how you feel Piratis.But if Cyprus army stand no chance against the Turkish army why have it???Turkey can never invade an EU country which has no army.That would be morally and humanely indefencible.And knowing the Turks,they just wouldn't do it.I know you won't take my word for it,and I don't blame you given our sad history,but it is worth giving it a try since everything else has failed.

[Piratis]

But if Cyprus army stand no chance against the Turkish army why have it???

For 2 reasons:
1) For political reasons: What we have today is not peace. We have a cease fire. We are basically in a war situation with Turkey. If we disarm ourselves it would be like saying that we are not in war anymore (you can not be in war without an army), which would mean that we accepted the de facto situation. Having an army sends the message that we will not accept peace while Turkey continues to occupy part of our country and that we reserve the right to fight to gain that part back.

2) As I said already our army can not defeat the Turkish army, but we can at least hold them back for some days. These days can be important for Greece/EU to intervene politically or militarily to stop the invasion.

urkey can never invade an EU country which has no army

I still don't understand what is the difference between an EU country with an army and an EU country without an army. The way you say it implies that if a country has an army this can be an excuse to be invaded.

And knowing the Turks,they just wouldn't do it.

Today no. But who knows what will happen in Turkey in 5-10 years. Turkey is not the most stable country in the world. If we despond our army and then something changes in Turkey and she becomes more aggressive then we might not have the time to rebuild our army.

[BirKibrisli]

Piratis,

Cyprus was not in the EU in 1974 or Turkey could not have done what she did.I believe Turkey is now looking for a face saving exit from Cyprus.Waving guns at them will not do the trick.Something totally unexpected might.I think Turkey will be politically very stable for the next 5-10 years if not forever.They seemed to have found their natural leader,Erdogan.Unless power goes to his head,and he turns into a despot he will be leading turkish politics for a long time.

[Sotos]

You think Erdogan will stay prime minister for the next 10 years? Is it allowed by the Turkish constitution to stay for so long?

[BirKibrisli]

You think Erdogan will stay prime minister for the next 10 years? Is it allowed by the Turkish constitution to stay for so long?

Sotos,

As far as I know there is no limit to how long Turkish PMs can stay in power.As long as they keep winning elections of course.In Turkish politics leaders often develop cult following,they start acting like Ottoman Sultans after a while,and people start treating them so.Demirel and Ecevit were in politics well into their 80s,Erdogan is in his mid 40s.

On the other hand Turkish Presidents (head of govenment with strong powers of veto) can only be appointed for one 7-year term.The present president was appointed by the previous parliament where AKP was not even represented.The fun and games will start when AKP gets to appoint its own candidate as President.That will give them total power,so they can pass their populist bills (freeing the hijab etc) which should keep them in power for a long time.The only way Erdogan will be defeated,is if he turns away from the EU,and gives the army an excuse to intervene.But that won't happen as Erdogan is as cunning as a fox.The only good thing about having Erdogan,for me,is that he has no nationalistic attachment to Cyprus,hence he might be more willing to walk away given a face saving excuse.

[Sotos]

he only way Erdogan will be defeated,is if he turns away from the EU,and gives the army an excuse to intervene.

Why would the army intervene in this case? I think EU wants to cut the power of army in Turkey, no? I thought the army would be better off if Turkey didn't join the EU.

[BirKibrisli]

he only way Erdogan will be defeated,is if he turns away from the EU,and gives the army an excuse to intervene.

Why would the army intervene in this case? I think EU wants to cut the power of army in Turkey, no? I thought the army would be better off if Turkey didn't join the EU.

No no no Sotos.Turkish Army is very much pro EU.Because they are strickly Kemalists they are are by definition pro Western and Secularist.
The Army does not trust Erdogan because of his Islamist background.
In another life Erdogan was jailed for reading an Islamist poem.The army is very weary of him. If Erdogan deviates from the EU path (and he can't,imo, and he knows it) that will be the end of him and his party.The Army and the USA interests will see to that.

[Sotos]

So Erdogan is not pro EU but he is forced to act in this way because of the army? And what will happen when EU will demand from Turkey to cut the power of the army in politics? Will the army continue to be pro EU then?

[BirKibrisli]

So Erdogan is not pro EU but he is forced to act in this way because of the army? And what will happen when EU will demand from Turkey to cut the power of the army in politics? Will the army continue to be pro EU then?

Everybody is playing their part very well in this game.The army does not mind losing its political influence as long as the borders of the Turkish Republic is not threatened,and there are no internal push for autonomy from anyone.After all the generals know that they have the real power,the power of the gun,when the push comes to shove.And they will not hesitate to ditch the EU dream if they think it would seriously undermine national identity.And as long as they have the USA on their side,they know they can survive any backlash(economic or otherwise) from Europe.