Cyprus-Forum.com

[bg_turk]

At the same time, as time passes, Turkey's negotiating position becomes worse, as the stakes for her EU accession become bigger. Accordingly, the longer Turkey waits for solving the problem, the more concessions she will have to make. It is in her interest to make a serious offer to GC now and get it sorted.

I am afraid the pasage of time is detremental not to Turkey but to those refugees, whose live have been spent waiting to return to their homes. How many of them will be alive in 10,20 or 30 years?

Besides with time the political landschape will change in Turkey, and I am afriad most of the other parties, which are likely to come to power like CHP or MHP will not be as forthcoming as Erdogan's AKP. I would also like to remind you that recent polls have shown that the turkish people would abandon the EU rather than TCs, so any government that recognizes the RoC will have committed a political suicide.

The passage of time only cements the division. As Clerides once wisely put it: "Every time we rejected a solution, the solution that was on offer later on was no better than the one we had rejected." No doubt as to why Denktash was so happy when he learnt of your OXI to the last solution attempt.

[tubegallery]

At the same time, as time passes, Turkey's negotiating position becomes worse, as the stakes for her EU accession become bigger. Accordingly, the longer Turkey waits for solving the problem, the more concessions she will have to make. It is in her interest to make a serious offer to GC now and get it sorted.

If this does not happen, I can see a scenario in say 10 years when Turkey might be begging for ANY solution in order to get in the EU. Eventually, this may lead to Turkey withdrawing the troops, dissolving the "TRNC", handing back the stolen land and demanding that the 1960 agreements are adhered to.

Tony I dont think the scenario you speak of here is realistic. The situation with Turkey's negotiations wont be easy, and there will be tough times ahead. But I do believe with the re-structure being planned for the EU in the coming years the great obstacle that Cyprus currently is for Turkey will be removed. There is already talk of the veto rights of countries being removed, talk of moving to a more majority based system, which will make smaller countries like Cyprus insignificant and countries like Turkey a lot more powerful.

Thats why the time for solution is now and I believe the GC leaders missed a major major trick by not demanding more from Turkey before the start of their negotiations on Oct 3. I think they had never imagined of having all that power and the result was an ineffective and totally inept performance which did not move their own position forward.

Waiting for time to wear down Turkey and making it give more concessions is not a waiting game the GC's can enter. If the current position continues as is for the next 5 years I think you will find that the TRNC will have a high degree of recognition on some level, even if this isnt official recognition. Direct flights, lifting of the economic isolation, etc will occur and their motivation to enter into an agreement with the GC's will diminsh greatly. Sure there may be some changes such Turkey being required to reduce their number of troops on the island but hey this doesnt change anything in reality for the GC's.

People with courage and determination need to enter the game now, make the tough decisions and walk that final mile to solution which so many other leaders have failed to do.

[Viewpoint]

Tony-4497

No, I mean a true federation in which people are able to live, work, do business etc where they want, e.g. USA (or, in other words, EU acquis!).
TC may get to have a non-sovereign component state on say 25% of the land, with state officials being elected by only the TC community, but this should only be able to deal with internal governance issues and not issues such as foreign policy, immigration, security (e.g borders) etc etc. The strong central federal government should of course represent the communities on a basis that does not discriminate among citizens, i.e. 1 person 1 vote.

I think you are talking about the Annan plan???? a chance missed, whos to say if a new plan was ever arrived at it would be any better??

Possibly. But I don't think anyone disputes the population percentages. It is also well known that TC were generally poorer than GC even well before any trouble began - partly as they were having large families and hence depleting their per capita wealth. If I remember correctly, according to the British-run land registry the land ownership of TC in 1960 was around 12%. In any case, given the population, I think 20% would be an absolute maximum.

Well then if GCs have no concerns about land ownership then independent assesment wont hurt has many TC dispute that their lands were taken off them as far back as the 1940s (due to them being poorer and uneducated) and that they have the necessary documentation to prove their rights. This is why TCs side always claims our land ownership rights are around 25% to 27%.

At the same time, as time passes, Turkey's negotiating position becomes worse, as the stakes for her EU accession become bigger. Accordingly, the longer Turkey waits for solving the problem, the more concessions she will have to make. It is in her interest to make a serious offer to GC now and get it sorted.

You under estimate Turkeys position and what the EU perspective is, there are a further 24 nations in the EU that will if their interest demands it apply enough pressure on southern Cyprus to agree to Turkeys acession. I also believe that you over estimate Southern Cyprus value within the EU club, you will always be a headache to the EU community and at every turn you will try to lever concessions on the Cyprus issue from Turkey but dont forget that as you want you will also have to give are you willing to agree to our ports being recognized as Turkey opens her own ports to you?? because this is what will be asked from your leader next year.

[Tony-4497]

Viewpoint

I think you are talking about the Annan plan???? a chance missed, whos to say if a new plan was ever arrived at it would be any better??

No - the Annan plan's provisions were the opposite of the criteria I mentioned above (right of return, work etc etc).
Chance missed?? Yes, same as the "chance" of having a bullet through one's head.. A new plan would have to be FUNDAMENTALLY better.. otherwise we would much prefer the current situation.

TC dispute that their lands were taken off them as far back as the 1940s (due to them being poorer and uneducated)

If the TC population was only 18% AND as you admit above they were poorer, then how on earth did they own land of 27%?? As I said, even according to the land registry of the British (who were patrons of the TC community), TC ownership was I believe around 12%.

there are a further 24 nations in the EU that will if their interest demands it apply enough pressure on southern Cyprus to agree to Turkeys acession

As proven at the referendum, GC are not the type who can be pushed around when it comes to their land and their national survival. Do not be fooled by the start of negotiations - GC WANTED Turkey to start accession talks more than even the Brits, because that is the only way of raising the stakes and giving Turkey incentives to accept a fair solution in the medium term.

Also, I think you will find that most EU countries will jump at the opportunity to use Cyprus as an excuse to leave Turkey out, rather than push GCs.

are you willing to agree to our ports being recognized as Turkey opens her own ports to you??

Am I to assume that by "our ports" you are referring to the ports in the part of Cyprus currently illegally occupied by Turkish troops?? Should I understand that you are labouring under the illusion that just because Turkey invaded those areas and held them by force for 30 years they have somehow become "yours"??

My dear friend, wake up and smell the EU acquis and the European Arrest Warrant... they are coming your way fast..

[garbitsch]

Wait and see Tony, wait and see. Time is running against you guys.

[Tony-4497]

bg-turk

other parties, which are likely to come to power like CHP or MHP will not be as forthcoming as Erdogan's AKP. I would also like to remind you that recent polls have shown that the turkish people would abandon the EU rather than TCs

So be it. GC made it clear they would rather have today's situation than accept an unfair solution (fair, in my view, being the (A) or (B) per my previous post). And this of course also means that Turkey will never enter the EU.

And in any case, this is not about Turkey "abandoning" TC, who in a fair solution will have the protection enjoyed by any EU citizen. This is about Turkey accepting that just because it violently and illegally occupied a part of Cyprus for 30 years doesn't mean that part is now hers. Any plan that is based on the recognition and legalisation of the "realities" created by the illegal occupation and ethnic cleansing is doomed to fail.

[tubegallery]

This topic seems to have gone in a different direction to what it was intended, in a typically Cypriot way. Talking about the merits of Turkey's EU bid and its ramifications will do nothing for the current situation and Cypriots have a history of always waiting for something to happen which will supposedly be a catalyst for solution. Think Cyprus' EU entry, think the supposed Oct 3 deadline, the list in endless.

At this point I would really like to know what TC people in particular think of my initial idea, regarding a central government made back in the first post of this thread. The idea does divert from the initial plan considerably and basically strenghtens the GC's hand in controlling the central government, with checks in the upper house, and the president.

I would like to know their opinion on such a proposal and whether they would be likely to accept it, considering all other aspects of the plan, which does give them a great deal of control of their own affairs through their own TC state which can never be diluted by GC representation in there, and also a fairly strict interpretation of the bi-zonal idea.

[Tony-4497]

Tubegallery

There is already talk of the veto rights of countries being removed

1. These were provisions in the EU constitution, which has been rejected. 2. The vetos in question related to less significant areas i.e. noone talked about removing the veto on admission of new members
3. Even if such a proposal was put forward (by e.g. the Brits) it would require approval by all members - and Cyprus would no doubt veto it.
4. Everyone in the EU and even Turkish politicians have said that Turkey cannot enter the EU before a solution in Cyprus.

GC leaders missed a major major trick by not demanding more from Turkey before the start of their negotiations on Oct 3.

No, they did not. GC were in fact Turkey's biggest champions at this stage, and rightly so, as they have the most to gain from this process.

Waiting for time to wear down Turkey and making it give more concessions is not a waiting game the GC's can enter.

Erm.. I think you'll find they already did...

If the current position continues as is for the next 5 years I think you will find that the TRNC will have a high degree of recognition....their motivation to enter into an agreement with the GC's will diminsh greatly.

On the contrary, the signs are that Turkey will be forced to carry out a gradual lifting of the effects of occupation, not least because of EU pressure and acquis implementation and Papadopoulos's 63 vetos. The opening of turkish ports next year is only the start. Then there will be issues around settlers, GC properties, implementing ECHR decisions, promoting a solution "consistent with the principles on which the EU was founded" (see EU protocol) etc.. There will be a carrott and stick approach which will eventually remove most of the illegality in Cyprus.

As for the motivation of TCs, I do not think it was ever an issue. If Turkey says jump, they say how high.. Talat could not even open 1 roadblock without permission from Ankara. Cyprus's counterpart is Turkey, not the TC community.

[tubegallery]

Tony why you place so much faith in the GC leaders is beyond me. They haven't gained anything tangible for their people in face of what happened in 1974 and they are totally useless, inept, and bumbling fools who as Australians would say, "couldn't organise a root in a brothel with a fist full of fifties!".

So disregard whatever rhetoric they feed their people for dosmetic consumption. And your other arguement of the EU will gain for us everything we haven't been able to, well how pathetic is that. You are saying that the GC's haven't been able to achieve their aims so we will leave it to a third party, made up of 24 other countries to do all our work for us and achieve everything we haven't been able to!

This is the wrong way to think. If the GC's want something they have to go out there and get it themselves and negotiate hard and within the current realities. The EU or anyone else is not going to be their saviour. Thinking along these lines will just delay and delay and lead to disappointment and 10 years down the track the GC's will be talking about how the EU let them down, how they were mislead, etc, etc, playing the blame game again, when they couldn't get off their ass and take some leadership of their own.

[Tony-4497]

tubegallery - I respect your wish to go back to your original proposal. That said, and as garbitsch pointed out, what TC think of it is not very relevant, because it is almost the same as the Annan plan, which has been rejected by the vast majority of GCs.

Also:

Talking about the merits of Turkey's EU bid and its ramifications will do nothing for the current situation and Cypriots have a history of always waiting for something to happen which will supposedly be a catalyst for solution. Think Cyprus' EU entry, think the supposed Oct 3 deadline, the list in endless.

I am surprised that there are still GCs who think in this way. Thankfully, you are part of a small minority (i.e. 24% at best). Can you not see the blindingly obvious?? Can you not see that the ONLY reason the Annan plan is NOW on the table is precisely and solely because of Turkey's EU bid???

Did you think that after 30 years of stating that there is no problem in Cyprus, Turkey all of a sudden felt sorry for the poor Cypriots and decided to accept a solution??

If a solution is ever found it will be ONLY because of the combination of Cyprus' EU entry AND Turkey's accession process (which started on Oct 3rd) - and these are the parameters that will determine the shape and timing of the solution.