Stanislav Tarasov: “Arab spring” in Turkey: the collapse of the country becomes a reality
Russian political scientist Stanislav Tarasov. Collage: BakuToday
Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has made tactical savvy move: his army left the cities and towns in the North-West of the country, effectively handing over control of the Kurds. In their hands crossed all State structures in border areas with Turkey, Afrin, Dariko Kobani, Amud and Al-Ajnada. They hung their flags. The 12 Kurdish organizations have banded together, creating a Kurdish National Parliament.
As reported by the British newspaper The Guardian, now the Syrian Kurds are given the opportunity to defend their territory. At the same time, according to Western observers, everything passes peacefully, clashes Kurds with the armed opposition or with the regular army. If Damascus would issue a decree on granting autonomy to the Syrian Kurds and begin the process of federalization of the country, the situation in Syria, so it may change qualitatively. Anyway, before Damascus pledged to take steps in this direction. Moreover, some of the requirements-equalizing in rights with the majority population of Syria, teaching in the national language and some others-was granted. This in turn means that Damascus is part of a complex “games” are already in Turkey, where Kurds for decades, are fighting for the same rights.
Of course, Ankara will take a lot of effort to prevent unification of Kurds living in Turkey, with Syrian brethren. Maybe at first it will be able to achieve such a goal. But the very fact of appearance at its borders, along with Iraqi Kurdistan and Syrian Kurdistan is nothing good for Turkey from the point of view of the prospects for further developments. In the future everything will be simple: Syrian Kurds, after perhaps a prolonged pause, will build mechanisms of interaction with virtually an independent Iraqi Kurdistan. In this regard, the Turkish media reported with dismay that in the matter of the establishment of Kurdish autonomy interest involved in Syrian territory head of Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq Masoud Barzani. He held the Arbile meeting, which stated that in the case of the unification of all Kurds, he would support the Kurds in Syria.
At the same time, as you might expect, have stepped up their military activities in South-Eastern Turkey combat units of the Kurdistan Workers ‘ Party (PKK), also require giving them the status of autonomy. So it was surprising how Ankara, which was historically the feel of the alleged events, now trying to wriggle out of the situation. Obviously: cover the Kurdish movement in Syria paint “terrorism” it would hardly be possible. Because it is close to the Kurdistan Workers ‘ Party-Democratic Unity of the Syrian Kurds refused to join the Kurdish-National Assembly. Tactically is also a good move. So Prime Minister Recep Tajimp Erdogan has rear ends, trying to prove that “creation of a Kurdish State in northern Syria is the terrorist Kurdistan Workers Party”. At the same time Abdulgamid Dervish, representative of the Alliance of Kurdish political parties in Syria-Kurdish National Parliament-after meeting with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu said Ankara would not oppose granting equal rights to Kurds in Syria. Thus, Turkey has actually acknowledged that Ankara was not only tactically to play battle with Damascus, but was forced to “play” in his field, because the political scene are now official Kurdish opposition forces in Turkey.
Before Turkey looming threat Lebanonization. So living in Lebanon, Shiites have supported its alawite Muslims of Syria and Sunni politicians and religious leaders, in contrast, supports the Syrian opposition. By the way, this is the channel through which you enter into a new area of confrontation has been Iran. And not only. Judging by the Israeli press, Israel’s Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has long been keeping his hand on the pulse of the Kurdish “to assist Turkish Kurds in confrontation with Ankara. However, the Minister himself refutes such a message, noting that “there is a large Kurdish nation, and not all Kurds are PKK”. On the other hand, the Syrian military opposition has urged Ankara to fight the PKK in exchange for arms to fight with Al-Assad. In our view, is about the Turkish political scene will appear and a local cemevi.
Ankara, which entangle themselves in the Syrian crisis under the slogans of democracy, with the reasoning shown by “worries about the fate of the Syrian people” proved itself dragged into Middle East mystery. That’s why the Turkish politicians and historians now-in the future-will have to painfully searching for the answers to the questions: “How is it that in Turkey the Syrian issue has such a policy, which potentially leads to the loss of significant parts of its territories? That it is a strategic mistake or betrayal? “.
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