Interesting...about 8 months before Moody's first downgrade on Iceland, interest rates were around 9%. Significant volatility occurred about a month before they put Iceland on review in Sep '08, then on to an initial downgrade to A1 in Oct '08. And then to a downgrade to Baa1 with neg outlook in Dec '08, etc, etc.
Here's the thing; 9% is hardly the hallmark of a stellar economy. What were the ratings agencies doing 8 months before they put Iceland on watch? 8 months is an awfully long time to miss such obvious information in the bond markets... This leads me to thank you for your contribution of solid empirical backing to my assertion that the ratings agencies are useless. There is no choice but to agree that the agencies should definitely be questioned. But not for the same reason as the Turkish gov't - the answer to the question here is that these agencies were slapping AAA+ ratings on securities that had no chance of ever being supported by the mortgage debt that backed them (because that's what their clients paid them to do and demanded from them).
The ratings agencies are criminal enterprises at best, and until they demonstrably clean up their acts, you take serious risk listening to a
damned thing they spew. It's unfortunate that people can see how badly these agencies screwed them, yet back them up when it starts to involve Turkey. It's not to say that Turkey's economy is doing fantastically - but that's a separate discussion (and already another thread on the forum, which has been around for several months, adding further to the uselessness of the ratings cabal who now have missed problems in Turkey for a similar amount of time).
Turkish bonds @ 9.32%:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-0 ... -data.htmlLinkies for Iceland here.
http://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Ic ... ng-392575#http://www.bonds.is/MarketOverview.aspx ... okId=53175