by repulsewarrior » Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:31 am
...of course Putin has the Trump card, timing will be everything.
Assad will leave, as he said he would, a Legacy for him and his family's rule in Syria will be found that Syrians can live with, in dignity.
...it will be the end of a chapter, in Syria, an end to the Civil War.
Putin is no hero in this, neither will Trump be doing anything more than taking advantage of an opportunity which improves his brand; then there is Erdogan.
...i shudder to think what Erdogan and Trump will do, under Putin's guidance, because it is possible without good intentions. If Syria is torn apart like Iraq "for the Kurds", (and Turkey benefits because she wants some too).
The saving grace in such an oligarchy of course, is that they will bicker among themselves; someone will go too far.
In any case, all eyes will be on Erdogan in January at Geneva: if there is a deal with Cyprus where he can recognise the existence of it as a People called Cypriots, then Turkey, its People may consider it well. (so too Putin and Trump.)
Peace with Greece, a tripartite alliance with Cyprus, joining the other alliances with Cyprus and Israel that have begun with Egypt and Jordan, reaps the benefits he needs for strong regional relationships that prosper accordingly.
...such a tripartite alliance would be possible, providing positive results, if/because the notion of a BBF suits the regional environment of the Eastern Med, and the Middle East, where Citizens seek Individual Rights, as Individuals, and who nurture distinct identities as Persons otherwise. (let's not forget that the USA is a BBF, Russia could be a BBF, and a BBF suits Turkey as much as it suits Cyprus).
"One Turkey, One Cyprus", is not too hard to understand under the circumstances, for Erdogan to say in Geneva, (to his electorate); (nor for Turkish Constituencies to exist, like Cypriot Constituencies).
...and under the right circumstances a BBF in Syria, and Iraq, and Iran, may follow. (there, is a Legacy for Erdogan bigger than airplanes, helicopters, pipelines, bridges, or trains)
A BBF in Cyprus, one Cyprus, plays a role in this wider sphere, i think. It is, or will be, in effect a template for Turkey's National issues (Minority Rights), and the Constitutional issues they must make (read: debate).
If in Cyprus the Constitutional changes are worth emulating, Turkey may follow, it is the only solution to the Cyprus Problem that Turkey cannot reasonably refuse. It can be "perfect", by solving the Problem regionally.
