miltiades wrote:Paphitis wrote:miltiades wrote:Care to tell me which of your views has thus far been proven right, on the Syrian issue that is.
Remember saying that Russia achieved " zero" and your dismissal of Aleppo old city falling to the Syrian army as " bollocks ? Come now, you have been consistently wrong. Your coalition has all but given up. Just look at how utterly lethargic it has been on Aleppo.
My only prediction thus far is that the war in Syria will continue. that the rebellion will metamorphose to clandestine guerrilla tactics and that the conflict will be very long and protracted. This has been proven correct so far.
I also predicted that the Gulf States will interfere, fund and supply these rebels.
I also predicted that DAESH will increase its tempo and become stronger. This has been proven correct so far.
I also predicted a brutal war in Yemen by the same protagonists, only this time, the Gulf States are helping the Government of Yemen. In other words, the tables are about face in that war, but it will be every bit as brutal as SHIA civilians get slaughtered by their thousands which I do not support by the way. Not in a million years will the West support the killing of thousands of innocence which is why huge defence Contracts have been
suspended to Saudi Arabia by Congress. our policy is consistent, and we will never be swayed by War Crimes.
What has happened is that all protagonists have been emboldened and they will all be out for blood. That includes, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Jordan, and Turkey. And it will also embolden israel which is looking for any excuse to attack Iran.
I also predicted that global terrorism will increased to levels never before seen.
there is nothing at all unreasonable with my predictions. I am not the only person to be thinking this way. our most senior experts seem to agree with these predictions.
The other day, the Head of the CIA sent a blunt warning to Australia saying the exact same things. This warning told Australia to expect infiltration by DAESH into South East Asia (it has already occurred) and even to Australia itself. He said, Russia has undermined global security like no one else. And thousands of people will die, even in Western Countries.
Milti, we have a global network of Security Agencies all working together. And the people employed by these agencies are some of our brightest young men and women. Fearless they are too doing a very dangerous job in foreign countries. We know what is going on and we don't need a pot salesman to be telling us anything from behind their computer in Belarus. We also have the technology not only to spy on your life, but we spy on most Governments around the planet, including Pootin.
You have ...predicted NOTHING. You are merely saying what some commentators are saying, no doubt the same commentators that ...predicted the fall of Assad. Your political analysis and views on Syria has been disastrously wrong . Your persistency in personalising western policy as if you personally was directing operations is laughable. We now know that none on this forum consider your views on Syria as valid.
Your childish spelling of Putin is further evidence of your inability to be a realist. Does misspelling a name renders you as a credible analyst or ....analist !!!
Mate you are so so wrong. By the way, this thread is devoted to the war in Syria, we are not talking about Yemen or any other ME country.
You are I see also ...predicting WW3 . WHAT BOLOOUCKS !!
These are my predictions and I said these predictions about 6 months ago.
I don't heed anything from mere commentators. I am privileged enough to have access to some of the most powerful people within my country, from politicians to ministers, to former prime ministers even, and senior defense people and think tank academics. But you don't need that to be able to analyse world affairs properly and with due respect that it deserves. Your views are simplistic Milti and very basic. Any reasonable person with reasonable intelligence can see what I am saying and are more than capable enough to come up with similar conclusions or variations there of. There are many scenarios and possibilities, but you can be sure that terrorism will be on the rise, the refugee crisis will get worse and bring other countries like Greece (and not just Greece) to its knees, and the war in Syria will continue and another war in Yemen will play out. All that is 100% and you can write it down.
The CIA warning only came about 2 weeks ago, and he basically mirrored everything I wrote on this forum about 6 months ago and have believed since about a year ago.
fact is, none of you have absolutely no clue.
DAESH are here to stay and they have 250 million Indonesians to recruit from.
https://www.unodc.org/documents/southea ... A_2016.pdfThe problem with your kind of thinking is that people like you believe that WW3 is impossible. It won't occur because you go on about Mutually Assured Destruction. Well, unfortunately for you and the world, it isn't quite as simple as that. And no one is convinced about Mutually assured Destruction either which was an American policy to ensure the destruction of the Soviet union should it attack the USA or its allies or both. Since this concept, coined in the 50s btw, the West has spent more money on Missile Shields than on its Nuclear Arsenal (fact). WW3, just like WW2 and WW1, starts off as a war, sometimes civil which then escalates as war between countries and then keeps escalating with other protagonists. Your kind of thinking is extremely dangerous, and will lead to WW3. Those in power do not accept your way of thinking as a fait accompli. They view WW3 as a definite possibility and so they should because it would be irresponsible not to or to be so gun ho and resolute about such a war ever taking place. fact of the matter is, major wars like this ALWAYS occur and the last big one was only a mere 3 generations ago. In other words, it was started by our Great Grand Parents.
Some people, and they aren't commentators, actually view Syria and Yemen as the beginning of a global slide towards unprecedented terrorism at best, to downright war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, with Israel throwing its ten cents worth in, and then escalating with Russia and USA plus allies.
I kept warning you that a comprehensive peace settlement was the only way forward and out of this cycle. I am not stupid, you are!
The fall of Aleppo is not a deescalation but an escalation towards more war and mayhem, which if the world is lucky, will play itself out in Yemen in the same manner as it did in Syria. But the SHIA won't be so lucky now because they will fall victims to war crimes like the ones we saw in Syria, and the world is powerless to do anything about it. That is the sad thing Milti. The cycle of hundreds of thousands of people being killed will continue, and hopefully it won't be millions. And for that to not occur, we are relying on luck and a whole set of assumptions that protagonist A, B or C won't push the button because protagonist D bombed the Protagonist A. It's not Russia or USA you need to worry about but Israel, Iran and Saudi Arabia. It's North Korea, Pakistan and India.
Here is a scenario for you. Israel bombs Tehran. Iran responds. Hopefully not with a Nuclear device. What do you think will happen? For how long can the West keep Israel on a leash when International Diplomacy is basically ineffective now? And can we take Iranian restraint for granted and just keep on doing it?
For your information, Israel has already bombed Damascus, which is an attack on Iran effectively, but there has been no response.