Cyprus-Forum.com

[Paphitis]

You don't need to convince me!

The US Arms Industry is only a small percentage of the American GDP. The USA , as you say, has countless more industrial output and the likes of Microsoft, Apple, General Motors, Intel, Tesla and so on.

Do you know how much a 1% of primary wealth might boost a nation’s GDP? Would you be surprised to learn it may boost it up by 13%? The reason is very simple: Because primary wealth recirculates multiple times. Isn’t this the reason the whole EU (and a lot of other countries) subsidize agricultural products?
Countries like Saudi Arabia make up 80-90% of their GDP from primary wealth (oil). A huge part of Australia's GDP is also made up from mining. And Russia's of course from oil/gas exports.
Arms production is not primary wealth though, It ‘s industrial production, but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn it may boost the GDP up by 3-4% for each 1% of output.

Russia has nothing like that at all.

Even if the American Arms Industry shut down overnight, it wouldn't be good for the American economy but it would hardly bring the USA to its knees whereas that is not the case for Russia. Russia would literally implode.

You are wrong. I will assume arms exports and arms local consumption are about equal.
Both countries' arms exports are exactly 3.6% of their own GDP.
If the arms industry in both countries were shut down completely then their GDP of both would fall by the exact same percentage (I estimate it to about 10%.)

However, arms production (including local consumption+exports) are just a small portion of what makes America’s GDP war dependent...

I challenge the 10% figure in America's case. I only believe America will go down by 3 to 4% but there is a snowball effect because it will mean hundreds of thousands of people out of work. Therefore, less money in circulation and less other goods these people will buy in terms of goods and services.

The State will also lose tax revenue.

But let's say you are correct and that Russia and America are the same. Then why do you say that America is funding the war industry? I challenge that notion.

There isn't at all enough money America can ever make in order to recover what it has spent on arms and its involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq. Bear also in mind that US Arms dealers are usually private enterprises as opposed to publicly owned in Russia. In the USA, the revenue goes to private investors, not the Government. The Government gets tax revenue from the profits and income tax from the workers.

Fact is, the USA isn't as reliant on the arms industry for its survival. You claim to have visited the USA. Well, it is a very broad and diverse country in terms of its people and its economy. You should know this.

You look at the computer you are using. It's either an Apple or a Windows 10 PC with Microsoft. Then look at Microsoft and Intell as a company. 2 of the largest corporations on the planet. Then look at Google and Yahoo. 2 more companies that are among the top 30 or so businesses on the planet. Then look at all the social media - like Facebook, Twitter etc 2 more massively huge American corporations that employ more people that the entire population of Nicosia.

Those are just businesses associated with the computer you are currently using to post on this forum.

Do you drive an American Car? I do. I really love American Cars too. I actually think they are much better than Mercedes or BMW. Certainly better value for money. And they are built strong too. Have a look at the Ford Wildtrac - one of my favourite 4WDs. It's good old fashion American muscle not like the European rubbish they are building today. Because that is what 95% of European consumer cars are. They are total rubbish that are not built to last. American cars are different.

Then look at their Oil Industry. I know, fossil fuels. But Americans are also innovators. Look at Tesla! The anti-thesis to Oil. America is a free market economy. Business laws are among the most liberal of course. What that means is that the USA is open for business and it is a massive market too, like China is. Anything goes in America.

Defence is only a very small component of the US economy.

[repulsewarrior]

...interesting i suppose the percentage of their economies, Russia and the USA, in terms of Foreign Aid, and Humanitarian Aid; in that respect who is the bigger?

[Pyrpolizer]

You don't need to convince me!

The US Arms Industry is only a small percentage of the American GDP. The USA , as you say, has countless more industrial output and the likes of Microsoft, Apple, General Motors, Intel, Tesla and so on.

Do you know how much a 1% of primary wealth might boost a nation’s GDP? Would you be surprised to learn it may boost it up by 13%? The reason is very simple: Because primary wealth recirculates multiple times. Isn’t this the reason the whole EU (and a lot of other countries) subsidize agricultural products?
Countries like Saudi Arabia make up 80-90% of their GDP from primary wealth (oil). A huge part of Australia's GDP is also made up from mining. And Russia's of course from oil/gas exports.
Arms production is not primary wealth though, It ‘s industrial production, but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn it may boost the GDP up by 3-4% for each 1% of output.

Russia has nothing like that at all.

Even if the American Arms Industry shut down overnight, it wouldn't be good for the American economy but it would hardly bring the USA to its knees whereas that is not the case for Russia. Russia would literally implode.

You are wrong. I will assume arms exports and arms local consumption are about equal.
Both countries' arms exports are exactly 3.6% of their own GDP.
If the arms industry in both countries were shut down completely then their GDP of both would fall by the exact same percentage (I estimate it to about 10%.)

However, arms production (including local consumption+exports) are just a small portion of what makes America’s GDP war dependent...

I challenge the 10% figure in America's case. I only believe America will go down by 3 to 4% but there is a snowball effect because it will mean hundreds of thousands of people out of work. Therefore, less money in circulation and less other goods these people will buy in terms of goods and services.

Industrial production has a spinning factor in GDP, but I don't remember exactly how much. Have to search about it.Like I said I just estimated it. Arms production is a kind of industrial production however the profits are much higher probably in the region of 100% if not more.Again I have to search it's spinning effect on the GDP. Bottom line is that if both countries shut their arms production their GDP would diminish by the exact same %age

The State will also lose tax revenue.

But let's say you are correct and that Russia and America are the same. Then why do you say that America is funding the war industry? I challenge that notion.

One indicator that America IS a war dependent economy is the amount of money it spends (not as a percentage of it's GDP but as pure dollar value for a) defense as summarized in her budget b)for overseas operations that may go unlimited. The war in Afghanistan for example cost 1+ trillion. Like I said that's just one indicator, not the whole reason why. I will explain later the full reason.

There isn't at all enough money America can ever make in order to recover what it has spent on arms and its involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq. Bear also in mind that US Arms dealers are usually private enterprises as opposed to publicly owned in Russia. In the USA, the revenue goes to private investors, not the Government. The Government gets tax revenue from the profits and income tax from the workers.

Beleive it or not I agree with you. America spends more money in defense and overseas operations (that's the category in which their wars fall) than what it presumably gets in return. On first look it doesn't make sense.

Fact is, the USA isn't as reliant on the arms industry for its survival.

True and again I agree with you

You claim to have visited the USA. Well, it is a very broad and diverse country in terms of its people and its economy. You should know this.
You look at the computer you are using. It's either an Apple or a Windows 10 PC with Microsoft. Then look at Microsoft and Intell as a company. 2 of the largest corporations on the planet. Then look at Google and Yahoo. 2 more companies that are among the top 30 or so businesses on the planet. Then look at all the social media - like Facebook, Twitter etc 2 more massively huge American corporations that employ more people that the entire population of Nicosia.

Those are just businesses associated with the computer you are currently using to post on this forum.

Do you drive an American Car? I do. I really love American Cars too. I actually think they are much better than Mercedes or BMW. Certainly better value for money. And they are built strong too. Have a look at the Ford Wildtrac - one of my favourite 4WDs. It's good old fashion American muscle not like the European rubbish they are building today. Because that is what 95% of European consumer cars are. They are total rubbish that are not built to last. American cars are different.

Then look at their Oil Industry. I know, fossil fuels. But Americans are also innovators. Look at Tesla! The anti-thesis to Oil. America is a free market economy. Business laws are among the most liberal of course. What that means is that the USA is open for business and it is a massive market too, like China is. Anything goes in America.

Defence is only a very small component of the US economy.

[Paphitis]

You don't need to convince me!

The US Arms Industry is only a small percentage of the American GDP. The USA , as you say, has countless more industrial output and the likes of Microsoft, Apple, General Motors, Intel, Tesla and so on.

Do you know how much a 1% of primary wealth might boost a nation’s GDP? Would you be surprised to learn it may boost it up by 13%? The reason is very simple: Because primary wealth recirculates multiple times. Isn’t this the reason the whole EU (and a lot of other countries) subsidize agricultural products?
Countries like Saudi Arabia make up 80-90% of their GDP from primary wealth (oil). A huge part of Australia's GDP is also made up from mining. And Russia's of course from oil/gas exports.
Arms production is not primary wealth though, It ‘s industrial production, but I wouldn’t be surprised to learn it may boost the GDP up by 3-4% for each 1% of output.

Russia has nothing like that at all.

Even if the American Arms Industry shut down overnight, it wouldn't be good for the American economy but it would hardly bring the USA to its knees whereas that is not the case for Russia. Russia would literally implode.

You are wrong. I will assume arms exports and arms local consumption are about equal.
Both countries' arms exports are exactly 3.6% of their own GDP.
If the arms industry in both countries were shut down completely then their GDP of both would fall by the exact same percentage (I estimate it to about 10%.)

However, arms production (including local consumption+exports) are just a small portion of what makes America’s GDP war dependent...

I challenge the 10% figure in America's case. I only believe America will go down by 3 to 4% but there is a snowball effect because it will mean hundreds of thousands of people out of work. Therefore, less money in circulation and less other goods these people will buy in terms of goods and services.

Industrial production has a spinning factor in GDP, but I don't remember exactly how much. Have to search about it.Like I said I just estimated it. Arms production is a kind of industrial production however the profits are much higher probably in the region of 100% if not more.Again I have to search it's spinning effect on the GDP. Bottom line is that if both countries shut their arms production their GDP would diminish by the exact same %age

The State will also lose tax revenue.

But let's say you are correct and that Russia and America are the same. Then why do you say that America is funding the war industry? I challenge that notion.

One indicator that America IS a war dependent economy is the amount of money it spends (not as a percentage of it's GDP but as pure dollar value for a) defense as summarized in her budget b)for overseas operations that may go unlimited. The war in Afghanistan for example cost 1+ trillion. Like I said that's just one indicator, not the whole reason why. I will explain later the full reason.

There isn't at all enough money America can ever make in order to recover what it has spent on arms and its involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq. Bear also in mind that US Arms dealers are usually private enterprises as opposed to publicly owned in Russia. In the USA, the revenue goes to private investors, not the Government. The Government gets tax revenue from the profits and income tax from the workers.

Beleive it or not I agree with you. America spends more money in defense and overseas operations (that's the category in which their wars fall) than what it presumably gets in return. On first look it doesn't make sense.

Fact is, the USA isn't as reliant on the arms industry for its survival.

True and again I agree with you

You claim to have visited the USA. Well, it is a very broad and diverse country in terms of its people and its economy. You should know this.
You look at the computer you are using. It's either an Apple or a Windows 10 PC with Microsoft. Then look at Microsoft and Intell as a company. 2 of the largest corporations on the planet. Then look at Google and Yahoo. 2 more companies that are among the top 30 or so businesses on the planet. Then look at all the social media - like Facebook, Twitter etc 2 more massively huge American corporations that employ more people that the entire population of Nicosia.

Those are just businesses associated with the computer you are currently using to post on this forum.

Do you drive an American Car? I do. I really love American Cars too. I actually think they are much better than Mercedes or BMW. Certainly better value for money. And they are built strong too. Have a look at the Ford Wildtrac - one of my favourite 4WDs. It's good old fashion American muscle not like the European rubbish they are building today. Because that is what 95% of European consumer cars are. They are total rubbish that are not built to last. American cars are different.

Then look at their Oil Industry. I know, fossil fuels. But Americans are also innovators. Look at Tesla! The anti-thesis to Oil. America is a free market economy. Business laws are among the most liberal of course. What that means is that the USA is open for business and it is a massive market too, like China is. Anything goes in America.

Defence is only a very small component of the US economy.

Mate,

you know where the profits are.

The Profits are in Microsoft, Intell, IPhones, Ipads, and other gadgets like this. Companies that fuel mass consumerism of the masses.

It's much better to be selling IPhones than to be selling F-35s. And the profits are not all that high when you consider all the Billions that are spent in Research and Development, prototypes, testing and then subsequent maintenance of airframes and upgrades. Margins are only 10% or thereabouts.

Margins on IPhones and Ipads, however, are in the vicinity of 40 to 50%. Plus, you are pitching to a market of Billions of people all over the world as opposed to Lockheed pitching to a dozen or so odd NATO and Allied countries apart from the US Armed Forces to sell the F-35.

Apple Profit = $180 Billion profit

Lockheed Martin = $45 Billion profit

And Lockheed is one of the largest and most profitable Defence Industry Companies on the planet.

Furthermore, there are only so many Defence Companies, but literally hundreds of tech companies in the USA like Apple. Some are absolutely astronomically huge giants and far bigger than any Arms Dealer (Microsoft, Intell, Google, Yahoo etc). Others are Small to Medium Enterprises to large Enterprises.

The likes of Lockheed Martin are big, but they are nowhere near the size of the Apples, Microsofts, Teslas, and Googles of this world.

America isn't a war dependent economy. That is pure hyperbolic hysteria. America is however very reliant on Oil as is every other developed Western Economy, and its economy also relies on rampant throwaway consumerism of goods and services like the kind that Apple offer. If people stop spending money, the US economy slows down.

In addition to that, global Defence spending has been in decline since 1960. That is basically because in part of NATO and other Security arrangements around the world between America and its allies. America is far more known to be the catalyst for this peace and prosperity and consequently the decline in Arms Sales globally. They have been very good at providing a great deterrent to war, especially in Europe and taking down the Soviet Union.

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS

And finally, the USA only spends about 3.0% of its GDP on Defence. Most NATO allies are sitting on about 2.0%. Greece spends 2.6% Australia is also on 2.5% and so on.

It's hardly earth shattering.

[Pyrpolizer]

You are getting too hasty in explaining me how America's economy is made up.
Who said that America's economy is made of anything different on the first place??
The question here is why that economy is war dependent. I will explain that with links not just off my head but i need some time to collect them.
Just be patient and I am sure you will eventually understand.

Regarding your previous challenge that shutting up the Arms Industry which outputs about it 1 trillion per year (2/3rd exported) -about 6% of US's GDP you may first need to study the effect of multipliers in an economy:

https://implanhelp.zendesk.com/hc/en-us ... ultipliers

As you may see typical values range from 2 to 7. It looks my estimate of 10% was way too low.

[yialousa1971]

Breaking##
Deal over, sanctions reinstated

highest level of economic sanction

any nation who deals with Iran to be strongly sanctioned

America will not be held hostage to nuclear blackmail.

https://www.rt.com/usa/426191-trump-nuc ... announced/

The US is leaving the 2015 JCPOA agreement, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, President Donald Trump has announced.

[Pyrpolizer]

WHY IS THE US A WAR DEPENDENT ECONOMY

US Military spending

First of all let’s have a look at US’s military budget as detailed here.

https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-military ... th-3306320

Notice it’s not only the base budget. There are other budgets from supplementary bills that the US Government may add in case of war.
For example the Iraq and Afghanistan wars spending over the years is shown on the DoD/OCO column. (1+ trillion US $).

Worth noting that the US spends over $150 b /year on overseas bases. This amount is included in the base budget.
https://www.mintpressnews.com/214492-2/214492/

US’s defense spending is still missing some other amounts though
-Various intelligence Agencies: $52 b/year
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-23903310
-The VA's budget which isn't a part of the Department of Defense budget was $163.9 billion in 2015.
-Other spending for development as e.g. the F-35 program that seems to be getting more and more costly
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-pent ... nse-2015-2

https://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/31/how-dod ... orce.html#.

US Armaments production

I have already posted links that the US exported Armaments in 2016 worth 666,250 b
I estimate they also sell another say 200,000 b of Armaments to the US Govnt.
The total is about 5-6% of US’s GDP. That would more or less be the same with or without wars.

In Summary
From the above data it’s clear that the US will be spending something from 874 billion to maybe o1 trillion on defense in 2018. Assuming a 17 trillion GDP this means something from 5.1-5.9% of it’s GDP.
At the same time it produces armaments worth another 5-6% of it’s GDP.

The percentages look high but not really that high to make the US economy dependent on armaments sales or wars. Also the production of their own weapons plus their exports more or less make up for a large part of their defense spending.

The important factor though is the sum of spending. It makes the US the only country in the world that can spend such a huge amount of money in war activities.

The petroleum issue
The assumption is that the US engages in wars for the control of oil, in stealing any amounts it wishes or get it for free from friendly regimes or buy it for free through the petrodollar system.

However the table here shows that the United States only imports $108.1 billion worth of oil.
http://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-o ... y-country/
This is not even 0.5% of it’s GDP and either it would get it free or not it wouldn’t change one iota in it’s economy.
Moreover the US is not really so much dependent on imports from foreign countries. 77% of it’s needs are covered from it’s own production mainly from Texas. It also does some exports of processed petroleum products. It mainly imports from Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela and Iraq
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/ind ... il_imports

The US consumes on the average 8 million barrels/day of imported petroleum. Considering an average price of $65 per barrel that’s worth only 189 billion.
So even if the US were to get all it’s imported oil totally free, it wouldn’t make sense to spend nearly a trillion per year in wars and armaments.

So what’s the real reason behind all these wars in controlling the oil sources?
The reasons are these:
a)To make sure there is continuous and adequate supply to meet all possible demand. (the distortion of the supply Vs demand rule pushes prices down)
b)To force the oil producing countries to rely on selling their oil to sustain their economies.

Therefore the reason is to keep the price ridiculously low level.
Today gasoline is sold in Europe at about € 1.20 per liter. Nearly half of it is tax.
Compare it with the price of milk. Do you think it’s reasonable?

Therefore what the US actually aims at controlling is the price of petroleum, primarily for it’s own good. It is a war dependent economy (imagine having to pay for example $650 per barrel which imo is a very logical price for a non renewable energy product). Similarly most of the Western World economies are also dependent on the wars the US is doing on behalf of everybody.

Control over the oil to hold it’s price at current levels is what makes any oil producing country that might oppose the American control a potential enemy. That’s why Russia is an enemy, because it may reduce supply to Europe and elsewhere. China is also sort of an enemy because it takes advantage of the situation and consumes too much "cheap oil" without contributing anything.

Conclusion:
The US is a war Dependent economy but she is not the only one. Nearly all western economies depend on the wars the US is doing to get us cheap fuel. We are all guilty in other words.

[Pyrpolizer]

Breaking##
Deal over, sanctions reinstated

highest level of economic sanction

any nation who deals with Iran to be strongly sanctioned

America will not be held hostage to nuclear blackmail.

https://www.rt.com/usa/426191-trump-nuc ... announced/

The US is leaving the 2015 JCPOA agreement, also known as the Iran nuclear deal, President Donald Trump has announced.

EU leaders decry Trump’s withdrawal from Iran deal, vow to work together to maintain it
https://www.rt.com/news/426195-eu-decri ... iran-deal/


I am curious to see what happens. Will Trump impose sunction on the UK, Germany, France and Russia as well ???
That's what this clown said though.

[Paphitis]

You are getting too hasty in explaining me how America's economy is made up.
Who said that America's economy is made of anything different on the first place??
The question here is why that economy is war dependent. I will explain that with links not just off my head but i need some time to collect them.
Just be patient and I am sure you will eventually understand.

Regarding your previous challenge that shutting up the Arms Industry which outputs about it 1 trillion per year (2/3rd exported) -about 6% of US's GDP you may first need to study the effect of multipliers in an economy:

https://implanhelp.zendesk.com/hc/en-us ... ultipliers

As you may see typical values range from 2 to 7. It looks my estimate of 10% was way too low.

Pyro,

You can come up with any links you like, the question is, are they credible? There are hundreds of sites which will suggest one thing or another, but are they factual.

Making the assertion that the USA is war dependent is just hysterical. They do not want to have wars.

They formed NATO, ANZUS to prevent wars from starting. This policy has proven to be immensely successful is Europe’s case as well as the Asia Pacific.

They have a fairly pacifist outlook with China but they will enforce UNCLOS and Freedom of Navigation.

Now, the Iraq War 1 occurred when Iraq invaded Kuwait. The Americans didn’t start it. It’s like saying if the Americans had come to Cyprus aid after the Turkish occupation, that the Americans are somehow causing trouble and waging war for no apparent reason. That would not be the case. Turkey started the war by invading Cyprus as did Iraq for invading Kuwait. Sure, there were US interests in entering the war to liberate Kuwait and hence no interest in helping Cyprus but rather, they were on Turkey’s side. Well, they are not completely upstanding about things. We know that and it is the case for all countries. Then, Sept 11 occurred so there was always going to be a war over that because they got attacked on their own soil with perhaps the most successful terrorist action in history.

So they went after Afghanistan because the Taliban was harboring Al Qaeda.

I posted information that arms sales have in fact reduced by about 80% since 1960. If the Americans are so polemical, they are clearly not very good at driving their Arms sales as opposed to selling things like IPhones, where the real money is. Explain this. Consumer companies like Apple are able to increase their sales by massive amounts but Arms dealers have not been as successful.

Arms sales will continue not because of the USA. The threats today are in the Middle East against Israel, Russia against Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, North Korea, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia over Yemen, and China in the South China Sea. Anyone who let’s their guard down will pay a price.

Countries like Australia, Japan, South Korea, Canada, France, Germany, and UK are building their capabilities not because they want to start wars. It’s about protecting your economic interests, Sea lanes, Economic Zones, Resources and these countries need to patrol the globe right down to the Antarctic to even prevent illegal fishing of the Pantagonisn Tooth Fish which sells for $10,000 per fish.

If you don’t have this kind of capability, then you are surrendering control and are left to the mercy of others which will not happen since no one will be merciful or follow the rules of international agreements when money is involved.

It has nothing to do with the USA at all.

[Robin Hood]

IMO: This will create a problem for the US and the rest of the World, particularly the Western World, that they (we) will live to regret. Trump is creating division and making other Nations take sides!

Iran has vowed to continue to comply with the agreement if the remaining signatories do and is resisting the hard liners attempt to re-start its nuclear enrichment programme. Iran's Rouhani has said the agreement will work without the need for US involvement. It remains to be seen if Europe in particular, and other countries, refuse to go along with the US imposed sanctions and whether the US will then impose sanctions on them if they do?

It appears that most of the rest of the World leaders, with the exception of Israel, oppose Trumps action. The next few weeks will be interesting.

America’s word is worthless - Paul Craig Roberts

We can now dismiss all hope that Trump’s campaign promises to pull out of Syria, normalize relations with Russia and stop the offshoring of American jobs will ever become US policies. By dishonouring the US government’s word and pulling out of the Iran nuclear non-proliferation agreement, an agreement signed by the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China, and Iran, President Trump has revealed that his regime is totally in the hands of the Zionist warmongers.

https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2018/0 ... worthless/