By Peter Harling & Hugh Pope
Ankara’s foreign policy raises more questions than it gives answers. While Erdogan’s statements in Cairo and Tunis in favor of secular constitutions were welcomed in the West, non-Islamist Middle East audiences are increasingly suspicious that the model of his Justice and Development Party (AKP) is not the Turkish Republic but rather for pro-Islamic movements. Increasingly polarized relations diminish Turkey’s ability to bridge and mediate among the full range of regional and international players -- a key factor of legitimization of its regional role before the uprisings. The increasingly bloody Syrian crisis challenges the effectiveness of both Ankara’s soft and hard power.
Above all, Erdogan’s spectacular popularity on the Arab street may not last forever -- partly because it has occurred in a vacuum while the Arab Spring waits for indigenous heroes, partly because Arab governments are wary of anything that smacks of a Turkish big brother, and partly because that popularity is based on Erdogan’s willingness to challenge Israel on a rhetorical and diplomatic level. After decades of exposure to empty propaganda, Arab public opinion tires fast of anti-Israeli bluster that changes nothing on the ground.
In short, when the popular applause eventually subsides, Turkey may be left with a foreign policy with no conceptual framework to unite its many contradictions: an unsustainable mix of alliance with the US and confrontation with Israel; a socioeconomic model built on convergence with Europe but in which the EU negotiation process has stalled; idealistic enthusiasm for Muslim democrats but continued links to other authoritarian leaders; public displays of Muslim piety alongside support for secular constitutions; and bitter arguments with all those keen to capitalize on the above to cast doubt on Turkey’s role in the Middle East -- not least EU states happy to use any available pretext to further slow Turkey’s accession negotiations.
Turkey is weak on issues closer to home too, as bills come due that were left unpaid during Turkey’s forays in the Arab world. Following the collapse of on-off peace talks, a five-month escalation of the domestic Turkish Kurd insurgency has killed more than 250 people, including more than 115 members of the security forces and 31 civilians. The Turkish economy is also on the edge, as a credit-fueled consumer boom peaks, Turkey’s current account deficit exceeds 10 percent of gross domestic product and, after strong economic performance in the 2000s, the International Monetary Fund predicts growth will shrivel to 2.2 percent next year. Internal political polarization, the stalling of the EU reform process, an increasingly authoritarian approach to freedom of expression, and low rankings in gender equality, transparency and educational achievement all mean that Turkey sometimes evokes aspects of the Arab world’s past as much as a possible path to a better, more integrated future.
Turkey’s “zero-problem” regional policy of the mid-2000s set fine targets. For the long term, Turkey needs to get back to what made that policy work so well -- open channels to all from Iran to Israel, a rigorously balanced approach to all emerging Arab players rather than an embrace of like-minded Islamic movements, and a functioning EU accession process. It’s worth noting that it was in the peak year of EU accession reforms, 2004, that Turkey had its highest growth rate of the 2000s, 9.4 percent. For Turkey to serve as a genuine model for Arab democrats to emulate, and thereby establish a lasting source of positive influence in the region, Ankara would be wise to step back and take into account the model that works best for itself.
Full article here: http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_ar ... 011_416462
You clearly didn't read the article.
