Almost half a century of negotiations have failed to bring a fruitful outcome for the unification to the ethnically divided Mediterranean island of Cyprus. There is nothing left that both sides have not already discussed in detail over the years; however, instead of making progress on reconciling differences, things have gone from bad to worse, and hopes for a settlement have faded. I wonder if the time has come -- or already passed -- to be honest with ourselves and admit that other options such as partition and separation may be all that's left.
The main reason for this failure to resolve differences is a lack of will and intent on the Greek side to see the island united with the Turkish one because the Greek Cypriots know they have to share the government, take in partners on revenues and give up the title as the sole representative of the entire island in international platforms such as the UN and the EU. There is no real desire or incentive for the Greek side to successfully conclude talks on a Cyprus settlement. Many EU and US officials privately acknowledge this but refrain from making it public.
I was in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) this week to attend an international symposium on isolation, which was jointly organized by the European University of Lefke and Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, under the auspices of the president's office. While there, I also had a chance to speak with Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu during lunch at the presidential palace on Thursday. My sense is that many people in the Turkish side, including Eroğlu, believe we have reached an impasse on the talks and that we need to come up with a different strategy to address this issue.
Though he was not expected to say that talks are over to avoid the blame, his warning about the last chance for a settlement until June 2012, when the Greek Cypriots take over the rotating presidency of the EU, indicates that he is seriously considering other options. What is more, at the end of the EU presidency, the Greek side will hold presidential elections in February 2013, which means any breakthrough for a settlement is quite unlikely. The talks about “the endgame” by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon following a recent trilateral summit also point out that talks for the sake of talks may be over. The UN may throw in the towel next year.
Even if both sides miraculously somehow reach a settlement, recent surveys point out that the Greek Cypriots are not ready to accept the deal in a public referendum, either. Just like in 2004 when Greeks on the island overwhelmingly rejected the EU-backed UN plan for settlement while the Turks approved it, we will go back to square one again. The Greek Cypriot government knows that as well. That is why they bank on a game plan of isolating the Turkish side and suffocating its economy with the hope that the Turks will agree to their demands. They are working with 230 lobbyists around the world to deny any opportunity for the Turkish north to raise its profile globally. It is ironic that the Turkish economy in the north of the island is picking up despite the isolation while the south is engulfed by major economic challenges.
The fact that the island has also turned out to be a proxy battlefield for major powers further complicates matters, dimming hopes for a real settlement any time soon. For one, Russia is a major player in the economy of the south with 30,000 Russians living there. Russian expats, some of whom also have citizenship, run multibillion-dollar offshore companies. There is an estimated 10,000 Russian companies in the south, and some are suspected to be involved in money-laundering activities from illicit trade. That is how the tiny economy of Greek Cyprus came to be the second largest foreign investor in Russia in the last three quarters, during which total foreign investment to Russia soared 180 percent to $134 billion, according to the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow.
Faced with economic challenges from the eurozone crisis, especially its major exposure to financial woes in Athens, and high government debt, the Greek Cypriots had to turn to Russia for a financial lifeline. Moscow agreed to provide a loan of 2.5 billion euros ($3.4 billion) at an annual interest rate of 4.5 percent, which is much lower than markets are currently offering. We do not know what Russia will get in return, but many suspect a secret deal was made to cut Russia a role in gas and oil reserves in the eastern Mediterranean. Russia is also a major arms supplier to Greeks on the island, and as a permanent member of the UN Security Council it protects Greek Cypriot interests at the UN. Greek Cypriots return the favor to Russia by keeping an eye on Moscow's interests in the EU.
In recent years, southern Cyprus also enlisted other international partners against Turkey by offering the French a deal for air and naval bases on the island and partnering with Israel, a former ally of Turkey, in joint oil and gas exploration efforts in disputed economic zones without the approval of the Turkish north. Adding insult to injury, the Greek Cypriots also provide shelter and safe haven to some 3,000 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) militants even though the PKK was condemned by the US and the EU as a terrorist organization.
All these efforts indicate that the Greek side in Cyprus has no interest in mending fences with the Turkish side or Turkey, for that matter. They are determined to keep hurting Turks whenever and wherever they see an opportunity. Turkey bashing must be very popular among the Greek Cypriots. After all, how one can explain the rise of the ultranationalist, racist and xenophobic National Popular Front (ELAM), a party that garnered 1.08 percent of the vote (4,354 votes) in parliamentary elections in May 2011. Considering that EOKA, a Greek Cypriot nationalist military organization that sought union with Greece by way of a terror campaign in the 1950s, had only 1,250 members, the danger ELAM poses to peace is much greater today. I guess Greek Cypriot leaders will reap what they have sown.
In conclusion I have to stress that the current stalemate is no longer sustainable in the Mediterranean region where economic crises and anti-government democracy movements are taking a toll on many governments. Certainly time is not on the Greek Cypriots' side. Their decades-long strategy has failed to secure what they sought on the island: dominance over the Turks. We have reached at a point where the Greek Cypriots need to either accept the Turkish community as an equal partner and act accordingly, or both sides will go their separate ways.
Source: http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-26 ... yprus.html
