Get Real! wrote:AWE wrote:but GR will oil get TR out of Cyprus?
Oil, when managed correctly has been known to do far greater things than that…
For the sake of all Cypriots lets hope it is managed well but I fear that it will not be and as such not remove TR from Cyprus.
I need to be clear as many members think I support TR - I do not like the Turkish-Vegasisation of the north and want to see a settlement but feel this needs to be done in stages as there is little trust between the two sides. Additionally, I feel there is a political class on both sides that don't want a solution as they will then have to deal with the corruption and nepotism that is rife.
The problem is that a hydrocarbon based economy, with or without a solution, will not have to address the problems and as only Norway, of oil based economies, has correctly managed this I worry that Cyprus, with the already entrenched corruption and nepotism, is going to be hard pushed to manage it all correctly. The concern is that if it is badly managed this will not foster a cooperative atmosphere between the two sides, continue to push the north in to arms of TR, and so perpetuate the stalemate.
The RoC GDP is $23 billion or so, if the estimates are right and this doubles it is still small compared to say Istanbul at $122 billion or even the West Yorkshire of £46 billion.
The only way I can see a solution coming from the gas is if there is one before the gas flows and a pipeline connects to TR as a delivery route to Europe, if the alternative is an LNG plant then the investment in this will preclude a settlement as there will be no economic benefit of one.
But you will not manage because at least half of our island is free. Unless you are looking for another excuse to invade the free part and kill everybody you missed in your previous invasions?
