Greek and Turkish Cypriots have never before been so close to an agreed settlement but the next few months will be critical as the United Nations push for a deal before Cyprus assumes the presidency of the EU in July next year, Makarios Droushiotis says writing in Politis and the Cyprus Mail.
According to informed sources close to the negotiations, both leaders gave assurances to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, during their meeting in New York last week that they were committed to producing the convergences he had asked for by the time they meet him next in January.
Significant differences nevertheless remain between the two sides, but Ban made it absolutely clear to them that his good offices mission will be terminated in the next few months if the sides do not break the deadlock.
The timeframe for a solution is June 2012. Until then there must be an agreement; the two sides must hold referenda and a federal Cyprus will assume the presidency of the Council of the EU.
If the deadlock is not broken by February, the UN will shut its good offices mission in Cyprus, the source said.
The option of freezing the talks until 2013 is unrealistic and it is something both leaders have fully understood. In fact, Christofias told Ban that he would not be a presidential candidate for a second term and has no plans to continue the talks in 2013. Once the UN team had made sure that the two sides had clearly understood the time constraint, Downer and Pascoe asked both sides if they believed they could bridge their differences. Both Christofias and Eroglu said they could.
The fact that they understood the time factor is perhaps the biggest achievement of the talks at Greentree. Talks without a timeframe and arbitration no longer constitute valid rhetoric. A very clear roadmap and a new procedure have emerged culminating in the endgame. If there is political will and courage, an agreement is possible.
Talks in Nicosia will start again on Thursday with one weekly meeting between the two leaders.
The leaders’ aides and working groups will take it from there while UN representatives together with their experts will be shuttling between the two sides, enriching discussions with their ideas and suggestions.
The UN has assured that they are not interested in imposing any solution, seeking especially to dispel the fears of the Greek Cypriots who vehemently oppose arbitration. As Downer said after briefing the Security Council, “we cannot want a solution more than the Cypriots themselves”, stressing that the role of the UN is to help the two sides reach a solution not to impose it. “They must be happy with the solution they will have reached”.
According to the new roadmap, the final round of talks in Cyprus will cover all chapters that are still open - governance, territory, property and citizenship.
A new tripartite meeting will be held in New York around January 15. Ban expects that the new meeting would be part of the final phase and not its beginning in the sense that when the leaders go to New York they would have already agreed on the four remaining chapters. If they go to the new meeting empty handed they would just be confirming the deadlock in the talks.
Sources said there is neither time nor inclination for another tripartite meeting. In New York there would only be two possibilities - declaring a deadlock or an agreement on the internal aspects and scheduling a multilateral meeting. If all goes as planned, the multilateral meeting will again be held in New York at the end of February or early March. If the talks reach the point of a multilateral meeting their success is a given, but if they collapse, it will happen in February. However, while a settlement is feasible on paper, it would have no value if it is not approved by both communities.
The UN believes that Christofias can count on the strong backing of the EU in case of a settlement, while Russia has given assurances that it will back a deal that is acceptable by both communities. Turkey is still willing, but less enthusiastic than before. Ban has already asked for support from Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan while his envoy in Cyprus, Alexander Downer is planning a trip to Ankara. The United States will not get involved in the talks but have pledged to provide help backstage. The UN Secretary-general has the backing of the Security Council. Its President, José Filipe Moraes Cabral, said that both Ban’s and Downer’s efforts have the Council’s strong support. He added: “The Council agreed that the sides should make additional efforts and display the necessary political will to move forward and conclude the negotiations in a positive way.”
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