Cyprus-Forum.com

[supporttheunderdog]

the risk of Grexit has subsided

Subsided from zero to minus zero.

Not having much success with your internet lobbying, hey, dog?

Depends on where you are looking from - where you are looking from the POV of your misconceptions then []you might mistakenly think so - but then who am I lobbying?

This article indicates why the risk still remains:
http://cyprus-mail.com/2017/04/26/juncker-calls-euro-zone-outline-greek-debt-relief/
For as long as Greece has UNSUSTAINABLE national debt then unless bail outs happen GREXIT could occur.

The IMF are not yet on-side for this particular bail-out. They want more - actual debt relief - and that means a haircut for some one - last time that included Cypriot banks and was a part but not the sole or likely even main reason for the Cyprus *anking Crisis (which included and includes far larger home generated NPL). We have to see how the various creditors will react, and the IMF.

[supporttheunderdog]

Another discussion on Grexit, highlighting the risks
http://www.capital.gr/o-kostas-stoupas-grafei/3207854/to-grexit-kerdizei-edafos

Now why after 5 years and counting are GREEKS and the GREEK Press still discussing Grexit and the risks it will bring...

[supporttheunderdog]

Another recent Greek Press article highlighting why the welcome agreement to release the next tranche of bailout funds does not spell the complete end of the risk of Grexit
'http://www.parapolitika.gr/article/giati-den-exafanizete-kindinos-tou-grexit

[quote= "Parapolitika"]With the agreement reached yesterday in the morning between the Greek government and representatives of institutions, the discussion now turns to alleviate the Greek debt and in one way or another, the deal is expected to close before the significant repayments of July debts, the Capital Economics notes. But he warns that concerns about a Greek default and a Grexit can be mitigated for a time, but will not disappear.
[/quote]

[supporttheunderdog]

Another recent Greek Press article highlighting why the welcome agreement to release the next tranche of bailout funds does not spell the complete end of the risk of Grexit
'http://www.parapolitika.gr/article/giati-den-exafanizete-kindinos-tou-grexit

With the agreement reached yesterday in the morning between the Greek government and representatives of institutions, the discussion now turns to alleviate the Greek debt and in one way or another, the deal is expected to close before the significant repayments of July debts, the Capital Economics notes. But he warns that concerns about a Greek default and a Grexit can be mitigated for a time, but will not disappear.

[repulsewarrior]

interesting survey on how Greeks see themselves.

http://www.dianeosis.org/en/2017/04/gre ... e-in-2017/

[supporttheunderdog]

Thanks RW, an interesting study, in particular in showing how attitudes have changed over an 18 month Period.

The rising anti EU sentiment must be a matter of concern. I remain of the view that Greeces best hope is to stay in the EU and Eurozone. I think it shows that at least some those interviewed clearly consider the possibility that there are some internal causes underlying some of the problems. They live there, they should know.

There is otherwise a lot more to Analyse.

I Wonder what gIG makes of it.

[supporttheunderdog]

Pending any objective analysis of the survey, that scandal sheet, the Daily Excess is maintaining that Germany is looking to impose a list of 140 demands on Greece
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/802673/Greece-bailout-news-EU-creditors-austerity-tax-debt-crisis-Europe

EXPOSED: The 140 shock orders EU is demanding Greece to adhere to for a bailout deal
A SHOCK document has been released revealing the 140 EU orders Greece must obey before the release of the next instalment of its multi-billion-dollar bailout.

The extensive list of austerity measures, including crippling pension cuts and major tax rises, could devastate the stricken Mediterranean country already on its knees as it is scrambles to meet strict requirements.

Athens is desperately trying to repay €6 billion of debt by a July deadline to meet bail out criteria.

I cannot find anything that confirms if this is correct, but if it is, it is Brutal.

[supporttheunderdog]

More doom and gloom from the Daily Excess.

[url]http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/802959/Greek-debt-crisis-EU-Slovakia-Germany-bailout][/url]

The IMF and the Eurozone proposed a deal which would see the country make more far-reaching austerity measures including pension cuts of up to 18 per cent.

But after Germany insisted the deal was not totally secured without laws being passed, Slovakia has stepped into the debate to insist it might cause problems.

Not confirmed elsewhere - The DE does have a reputation for making it up!


An Italian comment
http://www.wallstreetitalia.com/grexit-fmi-partecipera-al-terzo-salvataggio-tspiras-sempre-meno-popolare/

[supporttheunderdog]

The latest on the problems being put in the way of Greece
http://cyprus-mail.com/2017/05/22/euro-zone-imf-seek-compromise-greek-debt-deal-monday/


and of course the Daily Excess
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/807598/Greece-debt-Grexit-Eurogroup-European-governments-euro

Greece begs Eurogroup to agree £6bn bailout on ‘explosive debt’ in bid to stave off Grexit

GREECE has pleaded with European governments to sign off a £6billion bailout which will stave off a Grexit from the euro.

Greece really has done all that has been asked of it.

[supporttheunderdog]

and so it goes on

Deal - then No deal
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40005503

Greece fails to secure fresh bailout funds
Greece has failed to secure a deal to unlock the next instalment of its multi-billion-dollar bailout after talks with eurozone finance ministers broke down.
Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem said there was still a gap "between what could be done and what some of us had expected should be done".
Nonetheless, he said they were "very close" to an agreement.
Informal talks are expected to continue ahead of the group's 15 June meeting.
The Brussels-based meeting was aimed at deciding whether Greece had done enough to receive a €7.5bn (£6.4bn; $8.3bn) loan plus debt relief.
The cash is vital for Greece to avoid defaulting on a debt repayment due in July.
To secure the funds, the country has had to enact a series of economic reforms.
The International Monetary Fund and Germany are reported to have disagreed over how to help ease the country's debts once its rescue programme ends next year.
The IMF's participation in Greece's latest bailout hinges on resolving this issue.
"The feeling was.... more work was needed to be able to have that kind of clarity that the financial markets understood and the Greek people understood (of) what to expect at the end of the programme period in terms of debt relief," Greek Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos said.
However, he also said he was optimistic that a definitive deal could be brokered by the time of the next formal meeting in June.
Figures released earlier this month showed that Greece had fallen back into recession for the first time since 2012.
The country's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the first three months of the year after shrinking by 1.2% in the final quarter of 2016, the Eurostat figures showed.

and http://www.ekathimerini.com/218631/article/ekathimerini/news/no-greece-deal-at-eurogroup-issue-to-be-reviewed-in-june
http://www.tanea.gr/news/politics/article/5447457/proodos-ta-metra-oxi-gia-th-symfwnia/


and an analysis
http://www.ekathimerini.com/218604/opinion/ekathimerini/comment/debt-relief-is-not-the-solution-for-greece

Debt relief is not the solution for Greece
The notion that Greece cannot recover because of its crushing debt burden is superficially attractive. However it overlooks some basic facts and cannot explain why all the other peripheral countries which needed official support (Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus) are recovering.
The notion that Greece cannot recover because of its crushing debt burden is superficially attractive. However it overlooks some basic facts and cannot explain why all the other peripheral countries which needed official support (Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Cyprus) are recovering.

The key to understanding Greece’s debt situation is that most of it is owed to the European institutions, which have already extended the maturity to over 30 years and are charging very low interest rates.

Expenditure on interest amounts now to 3.2 percent of GDP, which is much less than what the Greek government had to spend on interest before the crisis and before the troika. Interest expenditure is also lower for Greece than for Italy (3.9 percent of GDP) and much less than Portugal (4.2 percent of GDP). Even the US government has to spend more on interest (3.8 percent of GDP) than the Greek government. But nobody argues that these countries need debt forgiveness to be able to grow.

An implicit conclusion from the fact of low interest costs is that debt forgiveness makes little difference. Assume the official European lenders were to forgive Greece 100 billion euro, a huge sum. What would change? This huge concession would save the Greek government a little over 1 billion euros in interest payments each year. Savings of this order of magnitude, less than 1 percent of GDP, are unlikely to make much of a difference.

In order to make debt forgiveness important one would need to argue that business will become much more willing to invest in the country because 30 to 40 years down the road there will be 100 billion euros less to be repaid (or refinanced). This is not realistic. Very few investments have such a long time horizon. Both Greek and foreign investors are reluctant to commit their capital to Greece because they fear the regulatory environment and the continuing political instability in the country, not because it has to pay some large sums two generations into the future.

The discussion about debt forgiveness is a dangerous distraction from the real problem, which is that Greek exports continue to stagnate. Wages have fallen by over 20 percent. Greek exporters should be experiencing a boom. The other peripheral countries are recovering because their exports are growing, spurring growth without the need for new capital from abroad.

The Greek economy can grow again on a sustainable basis only if exports grow. Debt forgiveness will do nothing to solve this key problem.