Cyprus-Forum.com

[CBBB]

02 November 2011, Wednesday.
CENGİZ AKTAR
[email protected]

The Cyprus stalemate is on the agenda once again, in a way no one expected. It seems as if all the parties involved, for different reasons, are about to converge on the same point, where a potential solution may lie.

The [Dimitris] Christofias administration in southern Cyprus is in deep trouble economically and politically. Its last move regarding offshore oil and gas drilling in the Mediterranean, although legally sound, otherwise indicates that it is really in a tight spot. Even a miraculous solution to the Cyprus feud can’t save Christofias’ political career, but it would definitely engrave his name in history. If the reunification of the island via a new federal state could be brought about before Cyprus takes over the rotating presidency of European Union (EU) on July 1, 2012, even Christofias would prefer a lasting solution in Cyprus to a hollow six-month presidency of EU.

As for northern Cyprus, it is not an independent state in the same way as the south. Turkey has a great influence over the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC). Its president continues to negotiate, but it seems that the final say will be Ankara’s when it comes to a solution. Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu made his first official visit to the KKTC on July 9, and stated: “We hope that we will come up with a solution for the Cyprus issue, and that a referendum will be held on it in the coming year. In that way, Cyprus could assume its EU presidency on July 1, 2012 as a new federal state representing the whole island.” Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, despite tough rhetoric during his own subsequent visit to northern Cyprus, mentioned the new federal state as well.

The UN has clearly been showing signs of “negotiation fatigue” for a long time, and was threatening to withdraw from the negotiations if the parties cannot come up with a solution. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon’s special envoy Alexander Downer set March 2012 as a deadline, which would be only three months before the start of Cyprus’s EU presidency. Today this timetable is running out.

It feels as though the international community supports finding a solution, not only the UN and Turkey. First, without the tacit approval of the influential permanent members of Security Council the UN secretary-general cannot take any critical steps on the issue, despite its institutional memory of the Cyprus stalemate. Second, it looks as though the international community will be present throughout the process and will arbitrate a multilateral conference. Announcing the next meeting to be held in New York in January, the secretary-general made the following point: “By then, I expect the internal aspects of the Cyprus problem to have been resolved, so that we can move to the multilateral conference shortly thereafter.” One can assume that “internal problems” might not include hard issues such as real estate, land and international guarantorships: these might be reserved for the conference. In January third parties would expect that the islanders would have progressed enough on easy-to-agree issues in order to leave the hard ones to the conference. That is what “give-and-take” would mean, in this context.

Exactly a year ago, I wrote: “We now need to look for solutions beyond the island, at an international gathering like the Dayton Conference which ended the war in Bosnia.” Let’s hope that Cyprus will soon drop from the agendas of Greece, Turkey, the region and the world once and for all.

In the case that a solution is reached, major obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership negotiations would be removed, and EU membership would be at the top of Turkey’s agenda again. This in turn would have an impact on domestic politics and the solution of the Kurdish conflict. The normalization of relations between Greece and Turkey would also be brought to the agenda. A solution to the dispute over gas and oil drilling on the Part of southern Cyprus would be easier to find. The problems between Turkish Cypriots and Ankara would ease, as they would become EU citizens. Turkish troops in Cyprus would return to Turkey with the foundation of a new state on the island, which would also greatly contribute to the demilitarization process in Turkey. Last but not least, a normalized Cyprus would bring new hope to the currently chaotic situation in the eastern Mediterranean.

If the Cyprus issue is not solved, and leaving aside the dream of getting the KKTC recognized by the international community, the only option for Turkey would be to annex the KKTC, as it would be much more difficult to continue managing it from afar in the long run. However, this option would be very costly. Today the facts that the south is in a tight spot, Greece is in chaos, Turkish Cypriots are standing up to Ankara, the Cyprus issue continually handicaps Turkey, despite its growing self-confidence, and the international community is fed up with this decades-old problem all point to the desirability of finding a solution.

Allow me to reiterate once more: Any kind of negotiation, including an international one, is not a process in which one party loses everything while the other wins all. And long-lasting agreements are those in which both sides leave the table equally dissatisfied.

http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/colu ... sId=261756

[Maxx]

02 November 2011, Wednesday.
CENGİZ AKTAR
[email protected]

The Cyprus stalemate is on the agenda once again, in a way no one expected. It seems as if all the parties involved, for different reasons, are about to converge on the same point, where a potential solution may lie.

The [Dimitris] Christofias administration in southern Cyprus is in deep trouble economically and politically. Its last move regarding offshore oil and gas drilling in the Mediterranean, although legally sound, otherwise indicates that it is really in a tight spot.

This is absurd. If anything, it is Turkey that is in a tight spot. Embarrassed and reduced to trolling for Sardines and Tuna.

Even a miraculous solution to the Cyprus feud can’t save Christofias’ political career, but it would definitely engrave his name in history. If the reunification of the island via a new federal state could be brought about before Cyprus takes over the rotating presidency of European Union (EU) on July 1, 2012, even Christofias would prefer a lasting solution in Cyprus to a hollow six-month presidency of EU.

Christofias won't be saved for 2 reasons;
1) the Mari Affair, and
2) his handling of the Cyprus Question.

The people have lost faith, so it is inconceivable that he can sell a solution plan to the people, even if the solution did have the right content. There is a lot of mistrust.

As for northern Cyprus, it is not an independent state in the same way as the south. Turkey has a great influence over the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC). Its president continues to negotiate, but it seems that the final say will be Ankara’s when it comes to a solution. Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu made his first official visit to the KKTC on July 9, and stated: “We hope that we will come up with a solution for the Cyprus issue, and that a referendum will be held on it in the coming year. In that way, Cyprus could assume its EU presidency on July 1, 2012 as a new federal state representing the whole island.” Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, despite tough rhetoric during his own subsequent visit to northern Cyprus, mentioned the new federal state as well.

Erdogan also mentioned that no land will be handed back. No compromise.

The UN has clearly been showing signs of “negotiation fatigue” for a long time, and was threatening to withdraw from the negotiations if the parties cannot come up with a solution. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon’s special envoy Alexander Downer set March 2012 as a deadline, which would be only three months before the start of Cyprus’s EU presidency. Today this timetable is running out.

Absolute nonsense.

The UN Envoy has not set a timetable or a deadline.

It feels as though the international community supports finding a solution, not only the UN and Turkey. First, without the tacit approval of the influential permanent members of Security Council the UN secretary-general cannot take any critical steps on the issue, despite its institutional memory of the Cyprus stalemate. Second, it looks as though the international community will be present throughout the process and will arbitrate a multilateral conference. Announcing the next meeting to be held in New York in January, the secretary-general made the following point: “By then, I expect the internal aspects of the Cyprus problem to have been resolved, so that we can move to the multilateral conference shortly thereafter.” One can assume that “internal problems” might not include hard issues such as real estate, land and international guarantorships: these might be reserved for the conference. In January third parties would expect that the islanders would have progressed enough on easy-to-agree issues in order to leave the hard ones to the conference. That is what “give-and-take” would mean, in this context.

Exactly a year ago, I wrote: “We now need to look for solutions beyond the island, at an international gathering like the Dayton Conference which ended the war in Bosnia.” Let’s hope that Cyprus will soon drop from the agendas of Greece, Turkey, the region and the world once and for all.

In the case that a solution is reached, major obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership negotiations would be removed, and EU membership would be at the top of Turkey’s agenda again. This in turn would have an impact on domestic politics and the solution of the Kurdish conflict. The normalization of relations between Greece and Turkey would also be brought to the agenda. A solution to the dispute over gas and oil drilling on the Part of southern Cyprus would be easier to find. The problems between Turkish Cypriots and Ankara would ease, as they would become EU citizens. Turkish troops in Cyprus would return to Turkey with the foundation of a new state on the island, which would also greatly contribute to the demilitarization process in Turkey. Last but not least, a normalized Cyprus would bring new hope to the currently chaotic situation in the eastern Mediterranean.

If the Cyprus issue is not solved, and leaving aside the dream of getting the KKTC recognized by the international community, the only option for Turkey would be to annex the KKTC, as it would be much more difficult to continue managing it from afar in the long run. However, this option would be very costly. Today the facts that the south is in a tight spot, Greece is in chaos, Turkish Cypriots are standing up to Ankara, the Cyprus issue continually handicaps Turkey, despite its growing self-confidence, and the international community is fed up with this decades-old problem all point to the desirability of finding a solution.

Why do they not annex the occupied territory right now? Even after so many years, what are they waiting for?

Allow me to reiterate once more: Any kind of negotiation, including an international one, is not a process in which one party loses everything while the other wins all. And long-lasting agreements are those in which both sides leave the table equally dissatisfied.

http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/colu ... sId=261756

Were the Turks equally dissatisfied with the Annan Plan?