Cyprus-Forum.com

[Nikitas]

Turkey joining the EU means it will have to abandon the scandalous export subsidies, enact environmental laws and labor protection that would wipe out any competitive advantage its exports enjoy. And it is the only advantage, because quality wise they are pretty shoddy. Even items that are made in Turkey by foreign firms, who transported their manufacturing plant to the country, are shoddy. Just compare items and see.

As for Greece leaving the Euro, this is the talk of schmucksperts who spout forth a new opinion every day. The Germans figure Greece leaving would cost the Eurozone 2 trillion Euro.

And let us not forget that accounting is a double entry business. The deficits of the Greeks are someone else's profits, namely the Germans. The so called "financing" given is in reality lending at preferential rates and then relending to Greece at two points profit.

If these super dooper economists are scientists, as they claim, how come they could not foresee the problem building up in 2007? Because they know FA, that is why. The knew FA then, they know FA now. After this crisis, the Lehman Bros folding, Madoff, Enron, it is obvious that economics is no more science than the reading coffe cups.

[Jerry]

Nikitas, Kenneth Rogoff did forsee the current Greek crisis early last year ;-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... ogoff.html

This is what he now predicts for Greece. I don't like what he says but that's not a good reason to dismiss his views.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/h ... 600833.stm

[Capt J Sparrow]

Nikitas, Kenneth Rogoff did forsee the current Greek crisis early last year ;-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... ogoff.html

This is what he now predicts for Greece. I don't like what he says but that's not a good reason to dismiss his views.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/h ... 600833.stm

But where were these "experts" 5 years ago Jerry?

This crisis is not something that just developed from early last year. Around that time, the Greek debt wouldn't have been much different to what it is today.

This has been brewing for years, possibly decades, and Cyprus might also find itself in a similar position in the years ahead, if it does not rationalise its public sector and spending.

But that prediction doesn't make me a financial expert. I am just predicting, maybe even just guessing, even if I do turn out to be correct, and I hope that I don't.

[Nikitas]

Rubini, Stilglitch (Sp?), Kruger, the list goes on and on of experts who have published and are still publishing conflicting opinions on the Greek economy.

Basically they judge from abstract numbers and not everyday reality. Having lived here for 35 years I have my own conclusions and they are based on factors these guys do not take into account.

Factor 1- the Greek civil service is ineffectual. No matter what policy they decide it will not be implemented because there is no machinery to implement it.

Factor 2- The myth of tax evasion. Greeks are overtaxed. Tax evasion is impossible in a system with objective criteria regardless of reported income. You might have zero income, ie you are a student aged 19, at university. But if you own a car, a gift from your parents, that places you in tax bracket B, and you must pay income tax, though you have no income. Every five years there is a tax settlement scheme which is essentially additional tax on already settled accounts, ie double internal taxation.

Factor 3- linked to the above, the use of legal fictions. This is a characteristic of inept administrations, and it is rife in Greece, ie the objective value on property, totally out of touch with real market values, and other fictions that are used as arbitrary tax revenue sources.

Factor 4- the high cost in money and time of starting a business. Greece is somewhere around position 80 in the world if I recall.

Fix all the above and within six months the economy will start to turn around. If these things are not fixed they can give all the loans and help they want, things will not change.

[Maximus]

Update :

The Lira losses 4 cents to the Euro further to my first post.

[Get Real!]

They can always remove another 6 digits and rename it to the Turkish Pico Lira.

[Lit]

Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Turkey may be unable to halt the lira’s tumble after selling more than $1 billion yesterday as part of a two-month campaign to end the currency’s decline, according to analysts at banks including UBS AG and Commerzbank AG.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-1 ... s-say.html