Cyprus-Forum.com

[bill cobbett]

Well firstly there's the right way...

... which involves trawling survey gear for 10,000s of kms for months over the past four years as detailed on these four pages...


http://www.pgs.com/en/Data_Library/Nort ... st/Cyprus/
http://www.pgs.com/en/Data_Library/Nort ... D-CYP2006/
http://www.pgs.com/en/Data_Library/Nort ... D-CYP2008/
http://www.pgs.com/en/Data_Library/Nort ... D-CYP2007/

Well worth a look at the above boys and girls for a couple of reasons, to see the detail that proper seismic surveys involve and to see how confident the surveyors are about the prospects in CY waters, and not just in Block 12.

Then there's the wrong way which is to send these two dodgy-looking grease-balls on day-trips in a clapped out old dredger equipped with a fish-finder...

[wyoming cowboy]

good question Bill?..

who are Turkey trying to fool, with this nonsense. It could be that they are just trying to cause an incident and continue in their rhetoric that cyprus gas exploration threatens the peace and security in the eastern mediterranean.

[Hermes]

good question Bill?..

who are Turkey trying to fool, with this nonsense. It could be that they are just trying to cause an incident and continue in their rhetoric that cyprus gas exploration threatens the peace and security in the eastern mediterranean.

They're mainly trying to fool the TCs into thinking that Turkey is looking after their interests. The last thing Turkey wants is for TCs to feel that the Turkish occupation is going to deprive them of their right to benefit from the island's resources. It might make the TCs start to see the benefit of a united island. Turkey needs the TCs to do nothing until it can fully implement its final solution and rid the north of the TCs for good and replace them with settlers it can more easily manipulate.

[Laplace]

They're mainly trying to fool the TCs into thinking that Turkey is looking after their interests.

I think that they're trying to deter investors. The rhetoric, threats, overflights, mock seismic surveys - they all cost nothing, and even if the chance for actually benefiting from any of it is miniscule, it's a no brainer for the game-theoretician gansters in ankara to decide what to do. If they do manage to deter investors, they it's a bargaining chip for them at the table; they figure they've done pretty well out of this kind of racketeering behaviour in the Aegean, why not give it a try elsewhere.

They don't care about tc's - after all, there's not much chance of a 'tc-spring' when there is one armed turk soldier for every 4-5 tcs on the island.

[Hermes]

They're mainly trying to fool the TCs into thinking that Turkey is looking after their interests.

I think that they're trying to deter investors. The rhetoric, threats, overflights, mock seismic surveys - they all cost nothing, and even if the chance for actually benefiting from any of it is miniscule, it's a no brainer for the game-theoretician gansters in ankara to decide what to do. If they do manage to deter investors, they it's a bargaining chip for them at the table; they figure they've done pretty well out of this kind of racketeering behaviour in the Aegean, why not give it a try elsewhere.

They don't care about tc's - after all, there's not much chance of a 'tc-spring' when there is one armed turk soldier for every 4-5 tcs on the island.

No doubt Turkey is creating tension as a way of questioning the legitimacy of Cyprus's EEZ. Whether this will deter investors is doubtful given the backing for exploration Cyprus has received so far. But Turkey is playing a high-stakes game as you suggest.

I think there are two issues at play here. Firstly, I wouldn't underestimate Turkish fears of discontent in the occupied areas. It is very difficult for Turkey to accept that the better developed ROC will be enriched even further by any gas discoveries. This could easily increase social tensions and resentment against Turkey in the occupied areas as TCs would be excluded from the benefits of any discoveries. Turkey needs to create the impression that Turkey is protecting the TCs interests to put a lid on any resentment leading to a weakening of its grip on the north. As the protests earlier this year show, the TCs don't trust Erdogan and further protests can undermine the Turkish case for occupying Cyprus. Any improvement in the economic position of the RoC would threaten to cost Turkey its influence on the island, which is important geopolitically.

Secondly, Turkey appears to have decided that the "Arab Spring" will put Islamists in positions of power. So the Turks are trying to ride the wave of Islamism in the region by positioning themselves as the main political force in the Middle East. Hence Ankara’s attacks on both Israel and the EU. Hence also the escalation of the Cyprus problem and the related desire to control and claim the hydrocarbon reserves in the eastern Mediterranean.

Of course, the new Caliph in Ankara needs to act tough. In taking vigorous action, however, he opens himself up to the risk of overestimating Turkey’s capabilities. Turkey will come up against more powerful interests and it could be that Cyprus and the hydrocarbon discoveries will become the beginning of the end for Turkish dreams in the region.

[Nikitas]

The Arabs are not as dumb as Erdo thinks. They know that he was chummy with their tormentors till the very last days of their tenures. The Arabs suffered under the Ottomans as much if not worse than the Europeans. Streets and squares throughout the Arab world are named after heroes who fought the Turks.

Sooner or later they will spot Erod's playacting and will realise the dangers of neo ottomanism.

[Capt J Sparrow]

They're mainly trying to fool the TCs into thinking that Turkey is looking after their interests.

I think that they're trying to deter investors. The rhetoric, threats, overflights, mock seismic surveys - they all cost nothing, and even if the chance for actually benefiting from any of it is miniscule, it's a no brainer for the game-theoretician gansters in ankara to decide what to do. If they do manage to deter investors, they it's a bargaining chip for them at the table; they figure they've done pretty well out of this kind of racketeering behaviour in the Aegean, why not give it a try elsewhere.

They don't care about tc's - after all, there's not much chance of a 'tc-spring' when there is one armed turk soldier for every 4-5 tcs on the island.

I agree with you Laplace. So if this is the case, why is it that Greece, has fallen victim to this?

If they do manage to deter investors, they it's a bargaining chip for them at the table; they figure they've done pretty well out of this kind of racketeering behaviour in the Aegean, why not give it a try elsewhere.

Yes, Greece has been a massive political cost to Cyprus, hasn't it? They have damaged and compromised us, haven't they?

Greece's lack of political will, over sovereign rights have not only ruined their own economy, but it has spurred the Turks on to try the exact same within the Cypriot EEZ, and gain another bargaining chip or prevent the RoC from exploiting its natural resources.

It's not hard to understand why there are many Cypriots that have lost respect for Greece. Is it?

Greece is the weakest link!

Would you like a Rum?