Exclusive Area of Conflict
The dispute over the natural resources between Turkey and Southern Cyprus is expected to result in even further tensions that might also affect peace talks held on the divided island. bianet talked to an expert on the matter, Dr. Cengiz Aktar, Head of the EU Department of Bahçeşehir Universtiy (Istanbul).
Aktar referred to statements made by Dimitris Christofias, current President of Greek Cyprus, in which he had emphasized that both societies in the north and south were going to benefit from the natural resources of the United Federal Republic of Cyprus that shall be established. In the case of a united Cyprus, the oil would belong to the whole island. However, "today's calculations and negotiations are not taking that as a base", Aktar said.
How would you describe the main lines of the problem?
The issue is this: There has been an 'Exclusive Economic Area' (EEA) for the past 30 years more or less. It was defined in 1982 and came into force in 1994 as part of the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea. Turkey is not part of this agreement for a number of reasons and particularly because of the dispute with Greece on the continental shelf. Turkey is not part of the convention institutions either. There is an important institution which is the Court of International Maritime Law. That is a structure established within the framework of the convention. In addition, the EEA is not something that was declared unilaterally.
This situation concerns us. However, Turkey is not part of the argument because it is not part of the agreement. Turkey cannot apply to that court because it is not part of the convention. Neither is there any support to base objection on. The only thing left in your hands is force.
Is the military Turkey's only trump card?
The situation is very complicated indeed. There would even be problems if Turkey had signed the convention. Then, how could the Republic of Cyprus sit down and talk with a country it does not recognize as an official state? Turkey says it protects the rights of Northern Cyprus. What is that based on? Probably on the agreements of Zurich and London made in 1959 and 1960 respectively as a guarantor state. Yet, Turkey is not the guarantor of Northern Cyprus but of the Republic of Cyprus. So with the present attitude they enter the international arena by defending the rights of a country called Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) that is not recognized by anybody. Nobody is going to take that seriously. It lacks any foundation. Taking legal steps and progressing that way is impossible. So what is left? Again the navy. This is the deadlock Turkey is in.
Prime Minister Erdoğan talked about a deal with Northern Cyprus...
The latest move was an EEA agreement between Northern Cyprus and Turkey... Such a thing can be done but it certainly has no influence in terms of international law. Or, in order to be able to put it into force, Turkey has to launch a new process but that will not easily come to a result either.
The government in Turkey sets the bar for this sort of issues very high. If you set the bar that high it is usually impossible to lower it. Considering the dilemmas I mentioned, frankly I do not know how they will get out of this. What will they do other than resorting to weapons? That would trigger an enormous response of course due to the lack of a legal basis.
It is an American company that is drilling for oil in Southern Cyprus. Does that create further problems?
The situation is very complicated. Noble Energy as the company searching for the oil is an American enterprise. An armed intervention by Turkey against such an economic undertaking would leave the country in an unpredictable difficult situation in my opinion. Turkey will not be able to overcome that easily. There is no justification. (...) There is nobody to speak out for the support of Turkey or the right of Northern Cyprus. Turkey is on its own.
You also have to look at what was said by the different parties. On one hand Southern Cyprus is negotiating with Northern Cyprus, on the other hand this issue comes to the agenda... This is a very unfortunate situation in terms of timing. Both negotiators will go to New York in October. They will submit a special representative report to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. The negotiations are said to be the last chance for quite a while.
Is Southern Cyprus going to take a step back?
It seems very difficult for Southern Cyprus to take a step back. If Turkey had not been that rigorous, Southern Cyprus might have been dissuaded by the USA or some European countries but unfortunately the issue got beyond that point. (...) There will be elections in 2012. Christofias' power is in difficulty. Accordingly, taking a step back seems to be very difficult in terms of domestic politics.
Also the developments in Northern Cyprus are not beneficial. There is a delegation of negotiators that is interlocked in finding a solution under any circumstances. Such an environment makes both a solution and the negotiations more difficult.
Northern Cyprus is very disturbed and so is the European Union (EU) because eventually Southern Cyprus is a member of the EU. The USA are very disturbed because it is a NATO member. There is the possibility of military contact with Southern Cyprus. Also Israel is in the business and even though it is not facing Turkey directly it is disturbed by this incident that is like a show of Turkey's strength. (...)
Cyprus will hold the EU Presidency in 2012. If the problem will not be solved till then, how is that going to affect the relations with the EU?
The relations between the EU and Turkey are worn out. However, they are not broken at least. Yet a military move, a military intervention would leave Turkey's relations with the EU on a very difficult basis. This may be a reason to stop negotiations.
How do the people of Northern Cyprus feel?
We know that both the government and the opposition in Northern Cyprus and the people as well are very disturbed about the timing. This confrontation can carry the potential to end ongoing negotiations and people are concerned that the issue may go that far. They do not say that they appreciate Southern Cyprus's drilling for oil but nobody calls for an intervention by Turkey either. They think that this issue is unfortunate and came untimely.
http://www.bianet.org/english/minoritie ... f-conflict
