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Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

How can we solve it? (keep it civilized)

Who will win the

Cyprus will get natural gas / oil. Turkey will do nothing more than empty threads.
13
59%
Turkey will stop Cyprus from getting any gas / oil by blackmailing Cyprus.
0
No votes
Turkey will stop Cyprus from getting any gas / oil by using her navy.
0
No votes
Turkey will try to stop Cyprus from getting gas / oil by using her navy but other countries (Israel, USA etc) will respond and Turkey will have her ass kicked.
4
18%
No gas or oil will be found
0
No votes
Gas / oil will be found but Cyprus will gain very little from it. The Americans etc will take most of it.
2
9%
There will be an all out war and Cyprus will lose big time.
0
No votes
There will be an all out war and at the end of it the occupied part of Cyprus will be liberated.
3
14%
 
Total votes : 22

Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Hermes » Fri Sep 16, 2011 11:03 am

Lit wrote:It has started.


Indeed it has. According to the CM:

Turkey watchful as oil rig moved into position

THE NOBLE rig Homer Ferrington yesterday took its place in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) ahead of the start of drilling next week under the watchful eye of Turkey’s navy and air force.

According to a Defence Ministry source, Turkish navy ships and planes watched from a distance as the rig was moved from Israel’s offshore field Noa where it completed drilling to Cyprus’ Block 12, also known as the Aphrodite field.

The source clarified that the Turkish ships and planes did not violate Cyprus’ territorial waters or air space.

The Homer rig is due to start exploratory drilling in Aphrodite as early as this Monday in a climate of tense rhetoric as the Turkish leadership continues to question the rights of Israel and Cyprus to drill in for hydrocarbon reserves in their respective EEZs...


http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/turke ... n/20110916
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Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Hermes » Sat Sep 17, 2011 6:25 pm

It looks like drilling will start soon (maybe as soon as next week) and Turkey's response announced today by Davutoglu will be...

"If this fait accompli continues we have steps of our own that we will take ... northern Cyprus can carry out the same explorations with Turkey and TPAO," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told a news conference, referring to Turkey's state-owned oil and gas exploration company."

In other words ... Turkey will do bugger all.
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Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Hermes » Sat Sep 17, 2011 8:06 pm

According to Phileftheros drilling will begin on Monday...

On Monday is expected to begin drilling the first test in the plot 12 "Venus" in the EEZ of Cyprus. With the start of drilling Nicosia will proceed to the second round of licensing for other plots of Cyprus' Exclusive Economic Zone.

Above the gas fields, which will investigate, is the platform "Homer" the U.S. company Noble Energy (Noble Homer Ferrington).

Today will be the first test flight of the helicopter from the port of Limassol on the platform of Noble Energy, which is installed on the land 12.

On the flight will involve only three pilots, two Americans and one Israeli. Friday was the final inspection of facilities in the heliport, which operates the port for the service process platform.

The helicopter of type Bell 412, will carry about 30 people daily to and from the platform. Moreover, ships carrying equipment and food, and if necessary will be transferred and staff.

In the area where the platform, identified Friday patrolling Turkish warships. The Republic of Cyprus authorities monitor the situation closely.

Reportedly, the first studies of specific U.S. company will cover the definition of where to drill rig of Noble Energy. Initially, we fill the tanks of the platform with water to stabilize the sea, with the help of the ship with it. The transfer of staff is expected to be completed by Monday.

In the first stage of the drilling rig will drill on the land 12 at a depth of 1700 meters.


In Greek: http://www.philenews.com/
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Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Nikitas » Sat Sep 17, 2011 9:28 pm

The latest statements by Davut bear several interpretations.

he said that if RoC proceeds then they too can proceed, letting it be understood that they will start exploring in the EEZ of the TRNC. This by itself sounds daring, since the TRNC is a non recognised entity and therefore it cannot have an EEZ.

But there is another interpretation, that the Turkish state oil company will start drilling in the EEZ of south Cyprus, thereby upping the ante, a kind of come interfere with us if you dare sort of thing.

In any case, the latest torrent of Davutisms is a very clever way of defusing the situation with lots of bravado thrown to impress domestic opinion of Turks and TCs.

My take is that the Americans have told them to lay off an American company doing lawful business, and the pashas realised that from that point on is no use playing the tough guy.

The real important stage of the game will come if gas is found. Then the situation changes drastically and Davut will find that his policies of neo ottomanism, which is islamism by another name, will rebound in his weasel face. No sane person would trust them with energy supplies of Europe, not when there is an EU member ready to host the ground installations and another staunch western ally to do the recovery.

Any offer of "energy security" by Turkey in the future and in regards to this area, will be the exact same thing as protection money demanded by gangsters, who get paid to protect you from themselves. Because really, who is likely to threaten Cyprus oil and gas other than the Turks! Once more the diplomacy of zero problems with neighbors, strategic depth and neo ottomanism has hit a rock. When will people realise that Davut is a clown. They still believe him to be a diplomatic genius, maybe a genius at creating a mess
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Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Hermes » Sat Sep 17, 2011 10:08 pm

Nikitas wrote:My take is that the Americans have told them to lay off an American company doing lawful business, and the pashas realised that from that point on is no use playing the tough guy.


It looks like the latest statements from Davutoglu bear this out. The Turkish threat is now not to interfere with the drilling by Nobel in Cyprus' EEZ but for Turkey to drill off northern Cyprus in retaliation. A fairly meaningless threat as this would lack legitimacy and resources. Davutoglu is trying to save face as he has been clearly warned by the US to lay off threatening a US company going about its lawful business. Are the Americans turning the screws on the Turks and reminding them they have no intention of allowing Turkey to interfere in US/Israeli-Cypriot gas reserves? If so, Davutoglu would be advised to keep his mouth shut or risk appearing as all bark and no bite.
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Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Nikitas » Sun Sep 18, 2011 3:30 am

Ermi,

Davut is a world class clown. I struggled through most of his book on strategic depth and was shocked that so many Greek commentators (who say they read it) found his analysis intelligent.

His plan to restart a new Ottoman empire to include nations that fought against the Ottomans did not raise any eyebrows. No one asked how these cultures that are passionately anti Turkish will suddenly accept regional Turkish leadership. More importantly no one asked how a western trained professor can harbor such bird brained notions of imperial revival in the 21st century. Exactly how does a third rate power extend its influence into a block like the EU, which is tightly bound by legal, commercial and financial ties no one explained, and Davut avoided analysing. Unless he only refers to Arab nations. As for the turkic republics they have got the mesage and are starting to clamp down on Turkish influence, the Uzbecks going as as far as to close schools and companies. So much for that plan and all the others, like zero problems with neighbors. Davut has caused more problems with neighbors than all post war turkish FMs combined. Like one TUrkish paper said, his is a policy of confusion depth.

The partition bit is what Davut and his friends fail to understand. THe world was OK with partition, because they could understand it. You guys cannot live together (a lie established by the Turks at great cost) so live apart. Now all of a sudden partition is inconvenient and they want to bring back the idea of commonality of wealth and all the other garbage they have been spouting. And who is going to be impressed about oil exploration in the north when none of the mineral wealth there was ever shared since 1974. These moves are too little too late. Vintage Davut.
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Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Hermes » Sun Sep 18, 2011 2:39 pm

Nikitas wrote:And who is going to be impressed about oil exploration in the north when none of the mineral wealth there was ever shared since 1974. These moves are too little too late. Vintage Davut.


I suspect that Turkey's true goal is ultimately related to the sea between Cyprus and Kastelorizo. Turkey wants to claim areas within the EEZ of Greece and Cyprus. Hence, its so called "research" in the north and signing of a "continental shelf" with the illegal state. This has nothing to do with protecting "the rights of Turkish Cypriots" and everything to do with claiming the EEZ of Cyprus and Greece.

Turkey is behaving like a pirate on the high seas attempting to bypass international law, continuing to violate the sovereignty of Cyprus in an attempt to stake a claim for the resources of the region. The sooner Greece and Cyprus move to an agreement on their EEZ, the better...
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Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Hermes » Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:50 am

A good day for all Cypriots. Drilling has started....

Noble Energy defies Turkey in Cyprus drilling

Drilling has begun in Cyprus's Block 12 license. Noble Energy: If we find gas, development can be complete by 2014.

US company Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) has started drilling in Cyprus's Block 12 license. At the start of the month, the Turkish government threatened to send the Turkish navy to Cyprus if the latter continued with its plan to drill at the location. However, Noble Energy, a partner of Israeli companyDelek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG), began drilling today, ten days before the end of the period stipulated in the agreement between it and the Cypriot authorities.


http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/ ... 02&fid=942
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Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Nikitas » Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:06 pm

The projection of power in the area between Rhodos and Cyprus started years ago. I posted in the past about the insistence of Turkey to acquire rights, and if necessary to establish by force, its presence in this area.

Remember the interference with the plane of the Greek defence minister by Turkish jets? The aerial collision between Greek and Turkish jets? The downing of a Turkish jet off the eastern end of Crete where the pilot was rescued by the Greek coastguard and hospitalised in Crete? All these incidents prove that the aim is not new, so any actions taken now in the area are expected.

Again, in this area the Turks are unlucky. The major oil reserves are thought to be partly in territorial waters, that is inside the 6 mile limit, and partly on land, in southern Crete, in other words in indisputably Greek territory. They did try to make some waves about the island of Gavdos and the Americans, specifically Nicholas Burns, called their claim to Gavdos "nonsense".

It just happens that circumstances favor the Cypriot and Greek sides at this point. Just like circumstances favor Turkey when it comes to the pipelines. But no one threatened anyone over the pipelines, a threat which could have been rationalised using the Turkish thinking, that oil is a common resource and no one should control its flow etc.

The more I study them the more I get convinced that they are a clown state that can rationalise the most absurd position to justify its ambitions. They are their own worst enemy, they need no help from anyone else to founder.
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Re: Cyprus Natural Gas / Oil - What will happen?

Postby Kikapu » Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:00 pm

Hermes wrote:A good day for all Cypriots. Drilling has started....

Noble Energy defies Turkey in Cyprus drilling

Drilling has begun in Cyprus's Block 12 license. Noble Energy: If we find gas, development can be complete by 2014.

US company Noble Energy Inc. (NYSE: NBL) has started drilling in Cyprus's Block 12 license. At the start of the month, the Turkish government threatened to send the Turkish navy to Cyprus if the latter continued with its plan to drill at the location. However, Noble Energy, a partner of Israeli companyDelek Group Ltd. (TASE: DLEKG), began drilling today, ten days before the end of the period stipulated in the agreement between it and the Cypriot authorities.


http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/ ... 02&fid=942


A good day for all Cypriots. Drilling has started....


It should be, but Turkey and the puppet leaders in the north does not want the TCs in the north to find out if there is a big find in "Block 12", since they are afraid, that TCs in the north will want a unification of the island that the natural resources would benefit ALL Cypriots. With such a find, the TCs are likely to stage demonstrations in the north for Turkey to leave the island and take the corrupt puppets with them along with all the Illegal Alien settlers from Turkey. It is obvious that Turkey and the puppet leaders in the north cannot stop the RoC from drilling, so they have come up with this foolish idea for the "trnc" and Turkey to explore the northern shores of Cyprus for Natural Minerals as a retaliation. My money says, if this goes ahead, Turkey and the "trnc" will claim to have discovered the largest Natural reserves that world has ever know, even when they find absolutely nothing. This will be used to convince the TCs in the north that they do not need to have a unification with the south, because they now have their own rich resources. This will be designed to fool the TCs in not wanting a unification with the south. It is a very cheap trick in trying to fool the TCs and it might work in the short term, but when nothing is brought to the surface after a while, the TCs will know for sure that they had been once again had by Turkey and the puppet leaders in the north.

There are no other reasons as to why Turkey and the "trnc" are in such a panic mode of the exploration drilling by the RoC, other than they are afraid that the TCs will want to unify so that they too can benefit in the findings of Natural resources in "Block 12". Once again, it is the corrupt TCs leadership and their so called "motherland" is trying to deprive the TCs their benefits and rights in Cyprus, for them to become equal citizens with all their rights and their future benefits as Cypriots, protected by the EU Principles. Lets hope that "Block 12" is the largest find EVER in the world, which will stir the TCs in the north to defy their corrupt leaders and Turkey's wishes in partitioning the island, but instead in wanting a solution for Cyprus based on BBF with True Federation, True Democracy, Human Rights, International Law and the EU Principles. If the TCs wait too long to demand their place under a BBF with the above principles, they will instead will have to settle for a Unitary state in Cyprus sometime in the future, if they choose wait without a settlement and if they continue to believe their corrupt puppet leaders and Turkey that the north will be recognised in the future with their own Natural Resource riches just of the coast in the north.
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