C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000972
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2019
TAGS: PREL EUN TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S EU STRATEGY: END OR MEANS?
REF: A. ANKARA 341
¶B. ANKARA 298
Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady for reasons 1.4 (b,d)
¶1. (C) Summary: Boasting a major economy and an established
democracy, Turkey is unlike any other country that has
previously sought EU membership. Accordingly, Ankara has
faced a unique set of challenges since launching its EU
accession negotiations, many of its own making. The ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) came into power in 2002
largely due to support from the pro-EU, pro-reform business
community and urban middle class. Since 2005, however, the
AKP-led GOT has lost focus -- distracted by contentious
nation-wide local elections and other challenges to its
reform efforts. The Turkish bureaucracy has slowly chipped
away at technical accession requirements which has allowed
for the opening of 11 acquis chapters. Having eliminated all
the low-hanging fruit, it is now a make or break point for
Turkey's EU ambitions. GOT leadership must throw its weight
behind controversial judicial and constitutional reforms as
well as demonstrate a commitment to fulfilling the Ankara
Protocol by opening its ports to EU-member Cyprus if Turkey
is to avoid suspension of its EU bid this fall. Despite
Ankara's own failings, the GOT contends the EU has not lived
up to its end of the bargain, by allowing Sarkozy and others
to hijack the EU platform and by failing to end the isolation
of Turkish Cypriots. Given this paradigm, many here suggest
Turkey may ultimately choose to stop the EU process short of
membership, thereby benefiting from the reform process but
avoiding surrendering its sovereignty to an increasingly
fractured, consensus-based EU apparatus. End Summary.
¶2. (SBU) Turkey has faced a unique set of problems -- many of
its own making -- since launching EU accession negotiations
in October 2005. For the EU, Turkey represents an
unprecedented ideological, demographic, and economic
challenge. Religious concerns aside, Turkey's population
would be second in magnitude only to Germany and represents
roughly 75 percent of the combined total of the last 12
countries to become members. Turkey's GDP is over 50 percent
of that same group and $200 billion more than its largest
single economy, Poland. In addition to standard acquis
requirements, Turkey has separate provisions laid out in the
2005 Ankara Protocol reflecting the GOT's refusal to open
Turkish ports to Cypriot vessels as mandated under the
European Customs Union. This has resulted in the freezing of
eight acquis chapters and the prohibition of any chapter
being closed. Cyprus, France, Germany, and Austria are
holding an additional ten additional chapters in unofficial
abeyance as a reflection of their own domestic concerns.
Despite these external challenges, Turkey's focus on its
candidacy primarily waxes and wanes depending on its own
political climate.
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Turkey's EU Attention Deficit Disorder
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¶3. (C) The Islamist-rooted AKP came to power in 2002 largely
due its pro-EU, pro-reform platform, which appealed to
Turkey's secular business community and urban middle class.
During its first three years in office, the AKP-led GOT
worked hard to institute the political and economic changes
required by the Copenhagen criteria to officially begin
accession negotiations in 2005. In the years following,
however, the AKP faced a series of domestic distractions
including contentious nation-wide local elections and other
challenges to its reform efforts, most notably a failed party
closure case instituted by "Kemalists" claiming that the AKP
was attempting to Islamicize the secular state. (Arguably,
these Kemalists, so called due to their identification with
founder of the modern Turkish Republic Mustafa Kemal Ataturk
and his policies, also viewed the AKP equally as a challenge
to their entrenched and lucrative positions and perks.) The
Turkish bureaucracy's progress on the technical level has
allowed the EU to open 11 politically-benign chapters since
¶2005. Having exhausted all the low hanging fruit and facing
two years without another nation-wide election, the
administration must now decide if it is willing to expend the
political capital necessary to take on the controversial
reforms required to keep Turkey's already sluggish EU
momentum from coming to a screeching halt later this year
when the EU reviews Turkey's progress with a special eye to
the Ankara Protocol.
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Misnomer of Negotiations
------------------------
¶4. (C) European Commission and EU-member nation officials
have conveyed to us that one of the greatest impediments to
Turkey's success is the failure of Turkish officials and the
public to understand that the accession process is not a
negotiation, and that the acquis is to be adopted as
prescribed. One European diplomat lamented that many GOT
officials view it as a competition; whenever a chapter is
opened, Turkey behaves as if it somehow "pulled one over" on
Brussels. Furthermore, as the Ankara Protocol has prevented
the closure of chapters, the political focus is only on
opening new ones. GOT officials are so focused on the act of
checking the box that the requirements themselves are
frequently overlooked. This has also effectively halted
political support for working toward meeting benchmarks in
chapters that are already open.
¶5. (C) European Commission officials here have frequently
noted that the GOT has a fondness for justifying new
legislation as necessary for EU harmonization without
checking with the EU as to whether the law actually achieves
that goal. A UK diplomat explained that the Turkish
Parliament had pushed through public procurement legislation
without consulting the European Commission delegation. The
subsequent law in no way complied with EU standards or met
the requirements for opening Chapter 5 (public procurement).
Still, politicians are now reluctant to go back and clean up
their mess. She added that the Turkish Parliament is
dangerously close to repeating the same mistake with its
draft labor law required to open Chapter 19 (social policy
and employment).
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A Failure to Sell
-----------------
¶6. (C) Turkish leaders have done a poor job of educating the
Turkish public on the EU and the accession process.
Politicians rarely discuss EU merits in their comments to the
Turkish people, but instead choose to repeat one of three
populist themes: Europe needs Turkey; Turkey will not accept
anything short of full membership; and the GOT is making
reforms for the sake of Turkey, not the EU. Accordingly,
Turkish public opinion for the EU reflects this less than
complimentary tone. Polling numbers have shown a drop in the
percentage of Turks who think EU membership is a good thing
from 55 percent in Autumn 2005 to 42 percent in Autumn 2008.
(NOTE: By Turkish standards, these are still very high
polling numbers. END NOTE) The same poll demonstrated that
the percentage of Turks believing that EU membership would
benefit Turkey fell from 62 percent in Spring 2007 to 48
percent in Autumn 2008. This reflects a backlash against
European leaders who are perceived as using the prospect of
Turkish membership as a means of creating a "pan-European
identity," overall public ignorance of the issues, and
growing level of Turkish disinterest.
¶7. (C) Ankara has done an even worse job of selling its EU
aspirations in Europe. For years, Turkish ambassadors in
Brussels viewed their mission as strictly bilateral and had
no desire to engage the EU or European Parliament. The MFA
has only recently begun to alter this mindset. Over the last
two years, the GOT has encouraged dialogue between the
European and Turkish Parliaments, although a majority of the
engagement efforts have originated in the private sector.
Turkish businessmen's associations such as TUSIAD and TUSKON
and Turkish think tanks brought over 300 European Parliament
members to Turkey on private funded programs in 2008. In the
beginning of 2009, however, the GOT took steps to enhance its
high-level engagement ahead of what many believe is a "make
or break" year. Immediately after naming AKP Vice Chairman
Egemen Bagis to replace then-Foreign Minister Ali Babacan as
State Minister for EU Affairs and lead EU negotiator (a move
long advocated by the EU), PM Erdogan visited Brussels,
January 18-20, for the first time in five years. Both
Erdogan and President Gul have subsequently made several
trips there to advocate for Turkey's EU membership -- with
mixed reviews.
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Not All Turkey's Fault
----------------------
¶8. (C) Some European officials here readily point out that
Ankara alone cannot be blamed for the slow down in Turkey's
accession process. The EU has consistently sent negative and
mixed messages which have dampened Turkish enthusiasm. One
Swedish diplomat noted that the EU has failed to explain to
Turkey that France does not speak for the organization nor do
all members share its or Germany's views. This duplicity
reinforces a "vicious cycle" of European criticism followed
by Turkish inaction, she noted. More importantly, most Turks
believe the Ankara Protocol has provided Cyprus with an
unfair weapon against Turkey in its ongoing bilateral
dispute. While Turkey has not complied and opened its ports,
the EU has not done enough to end the isolation of Northern
Cypriots, something which is also called for in the Ankara
Protocol. As a result, many Turks have come to view
EU-justified reform efforts as futile so long as Cyprus can
effectively halt the process with its one vote. (NOTE: While
ratification of the Lisbon Treaty will ease many internal EU
disputes and allow for greater discussion of issues related
to enlargement, European officials tell us that decisions
related to new membership will still require consensus. END
NOTE)
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All Politics Are Local
----------------------
¶9. (C) Turkey's skeptical attitude toward the EU reflects a
larger insecurity about its place in Europe and a perceived
lack of European will to accept Turkey as European. Turks
commonly refer to this fear as the "Sevres Syndrome" in
reference to the 1920 treaty in which France, the UK, Italy,
and Greece carved up the former Ottoman Empire. At best,
Turks perceive a general lack of European political will to
incorporate Turkey's large economy and population. At worst,
the public fears that this hesitance is due to religious and
ethnic prejudices. Regardless, the process of subjecting the
substantive spectrum of Turkish governance to European
scrutiny touches upon many domestic sensitivities and calls
for a level of humility not commonly found here.
Politicians, nevertheless, are keenly aware that EU
membership has different meanings to different constituency
groups and alter their message accordingly.
¶10. (C) While being a vocal EU proponent may not win votes in
Turkey, politicians understand being an outright opponent
will lose them. Each constituency group, however, views EU
accession through the guise of its own domestic agenda. The
Islamists, closely associated with the ruling AKP, see the EU
as a proxy for reforming a secularist system that has
traditionally suppressed Islamic parties and their
supporters, namely changing party closure laws as required by
the Venice Commission and eliminating headscarf prohibitions.
On the alternative end of the political spectrum, the
secular social and political elite Kemalists, represented by
the leading opposition party CHP, desire an inseverable
tether for Turkey to Europe that would guarantee its westward
orientation. The Kemalists are torn between achieving their
goal of a European Turkey and, on the other hand, complying
with EU reforms that grant greater social and political
freedoms to the Islamists, who they believe have the agenda
of turning Turkey into a sharia state. In addition, many of
the required EU judicial and constitutional reforms
simultaneously touch upon core political redlines of the
Kemalists and Islamists and have met with resistance from
both sides. To the Turkish business community, regardless of
political affiliation, the EU represents economic
opportunities.
¶11. (C) The urban middle class sees EU membership as economic
security and easier travel to Europe -- as one journalist
described it, "a European-style life." Having once voted for
AKP due to its pro-EU, pro-reform platform, this group
abandoned the party in the March nationwide municipal and
local elections. For the nationalists, EU membership is, on
one hand, the ultimate validation of Ataturk's modernization
and Westernization project, but on the other, a surrender of
autonomy and the subjugation of Turkish needs to greater
European concerns. The average Turk, however, knows little
of the EU other than what is said by politicians.
Accordingly, Turkish media coverage of critical statements
coming from European capitals represents much of the Turkish
street's exposure to Brussels. In a recent nation-wide poll
on intolerance, respondents selected the EU over Israel,
terrorists, and the U.S. as the greatest threat to global
security. Fatigued by the onslaught of sound bites from
Sarkozy and Merkel, and the seemingly endless demands for
controversial and laborious reforms, the average Turk has
grown ambivalent to the accession process.
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Whither Turkey
--------------
¶12. (C) Contrary to popular perception, however, Turkey's EU
efforts have not completely stalled since 2005. Beginning in
2008, the GOT implemented a series of actions addressing
several controversial human rights issues including Article
301, the Foundations Law, and state-owned Turkish Radio and
Television (TRT) Kurdish language broadcasting, in addition
to passing a much welcomed National Program for the Adoption
of the Acquis and naming a new lead EU negotiator. One UK
diplomat noted several steps that have done much to win
European hears and minds, such as making May 1 an official
holiday and allowing peaceful labor protests, the uneventful
celebration of Nevruz, PM Erdogan and President Gul's trips
to Brussels, and the nascent steps to normalize relations
with Armenia.
¶13. (C) On the heels of a weak Czech presidency, Ankara is
optimistic that their EU luck will improve with the
back-to-back pro-Turkey Swedish and Spanish terms.
Nevertheless, Turkey faces a difficult six months ahead. The
GOT has yet to institute significant judicial and
constitutional reforms (both of which touch upon hard-fast
secularist red lines) ahead of the parliament's summer
recess. Without a significant push in those areas and
without opening its ports to Cyprus, Turkey faces the
possible suspension of its accession talks in the late-fall
following the annual progress report.
¶14. (C) In June, EU Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn
encouraged Turkey to take bold measures to avoid suspension
of talks, specifically opening its ports to Cyprus, making
progress in the reunification talks, recognizing the status
of the Greek Orthodox Patriarchate, and opening Halki
Seminary. While European diplomats have qualified that
Rehn's statement was intended to motivate Ankara to take
action on all fronts, many Turks have interpreted his
comments as a list of equally weighted options. Furthermore,
some GOT officials have conveyed to us assurances from
Brussels that the fall progress report will not lead to a
derailment of talks. GOT officials have increasingly begun
to imply that Halki will open in the near future, a move many
interpret as a stop gap measure to buy Turkey time. (NOTE:
Regardless of the political will, some in the administration
are arguing that opening Halki will require legislative
action. END NOTE)
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Comment
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¶15. (C) Boasting a major economy and an established
democracy, Turkey is unlike any other country that has
previously sought EU membership. Accordingly, the accession
process offers different returns, most benefiting Ankara's
internal needs rather than economic development or political
cohesion. Turkey's membership in the European Customs Union
already affords a high level of economic integration
including EU visa waivers for Turkish truck drivers, artists,
and (soon) journalists. Given that Turkey's "immigration
threat" to the EU stems predominantly from third country
nationals, it is not inconceivable that at some point
business and tourism visas may follow suit. If all Turkey's
interests (domestic reform, economic access, and ease of
travel) are met through existing associations and the acquis
harmonization process, full membership may not offer much to
Turkey. Depending on the party in power at the time, many
here believe Turkey may ultimately choose to stop the process
short of membership, thereby avoiding surrendering its
sovereignty to what they see as an increasingly fractured,
consensus-based EU apparatus.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey
JEFFREY
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/07/09ANKARA972.html