Cyprus-Forum.com

[Kikapu]

Only a year ago CEBR could not predict Turkey's downfall from 17th to 19th position, so how can one put much stock into what they are predicting for Turkey in 2028?

Cebr’s World Economic League Table
26 December 2013

Turkey
The Turkish economy is predicted to rise from 17th position this year to 12th in 2028, based on its access to the Western European markets while its labour costs remain relatively low. Favourable demographics also help fuel the economic growth. However, the Turkish outlook does depend on political stability and continued disturbances of the kind seen in 2013 could discourage investment and hence growth.

http://www.telegraaf.nl/incoming/articl ... e-2013.pdf

[Lordo]

Only a year ago CEBR could not predict Turkey's downfall from 17th to 19th position, so how can one put much stock into what they are predicting for Turkey in 2028?

Cebr’s World Economic League Table
26 December 2013

Turkey
The Turkish economy is predicted to rise from 17th position this year to 12th in 2028, based on its access to the Western European markets while its labour costs remain relatively low. Favourable demographics also help fuel the economic growth. However, the Turkish outlook does depend on political stability and continued disturbances of the kind seen in 2013 could discourage investment and hence growth.

http://www.telegraaf.nl/incoming/articl ... e-2013.pdf

have you considered that fact that they may now have employed a qualified statistician and an actuarist. maybe the last one was like you, he kept making things up as he went along and what ever suited him. may be he was a gc fanatic or a patsy and could not bring himself to say terggy was improving. there are lost of reasons why these things happen.

[Kikapu]

Only a year ago CEBR could not predict Turkey's downfall from 17th to 19th position, so how can one put much stock into what they are predicting for Turkey in 2028?

Cebr’s World Economic League Table
26 December 2013

Turkey
The Turkish economy is predicted to rise from 17th position this year to 12th in 2028, based on its access to the Western European markets while its labour costs remain relatively low. Favourable demographics also help fuel the economic growth. However, the Turkish outlook does depend on political stability and continued disturbances of the kind seen in 2013 could discourage investment and hence growth.

http://www.telegraaf.nl/incoming/articl ... e-2013.pdf

have you considered that fact that they may now have employed a qualified statistician and an actuarist. maybe the last one was like you, he kept making things up as he went along and what ever suited him. may be he was a gc fanatic or a patsy and could not bring himself to say terggy was improving. there are lost of reasons why these things happen.

Yes, that must have been it!

[erolz66]

Clearly Kikapu accepts the short term prediction of the CEBR but questions its longer term forecasts. Frankly I question them myself especially when that body puts the UK economy ahead of Germany in 2030. In the case of the UK it would depend on which political party is in power in the intervening years. Do the predictions for Turkey assume that the AKP will remain in power for the next decade or two?

Well if he had said that this discussion would have been considerably shorter I suspect. What he originally said, at least as far as I understood it, was he accepted the short term but dismissed the long term because it was the result of 'fear of arrest'. This is what struck me as not credible and it still strikes me as such. The example of Gulen, a Turkish citizen living in exile in the states or examples of pressure being brought by commentators in Turkey who are Turkish citizens are not sufficient to convince me that a report written by a body like the CEBR, based not in Turkey and staffed not by Turkish citizens, would purposely lie about what they really thought about the future of Turkey's position in the GDP ranking tables because of 'fear of arrest'. I did not find that credible then and still do not now.

Just to be clear I personally have no idea if Turkey's economy is on an upward trend medium or long term or a downwards one care little either way. Nor do I seek to deny or ignore the very serious things that are going on in Turkey with regards to freedom of expression and criticism of the current AKP regime.

[Kikapu]

Clearly Kikapu accepts the short term prediction of the CEBR but questions its longer term forecasts. Frankly I question them myself especially when that body puts the UK economy ahead of Germany in 2030. In the case of the UK it would depend on which political party is in power in the intervening years. Do the predictions for Turkey assume that the AKP will remain in power for the next decade or two?

Well if he had said that this discussion would have been considerably shorter I suspect. What he originally said, at least as far as I understood it, was he accepted the short term but dismissed the long term because it was the result of 'fear of arrest'. This is what struck me as not credible and it still strikes me as such. The example of Gulen, a Turkish citizen living in exile in the states or examples of pressure being brought by commentators in Turkey who are Turkish citizens are not sufficient to convince me that a report written by a body like the CEBR, based not in Turkey and staffed not by Turkish citizens, would purposely lie about what they really thought about the future of Turkey's position in the GDP ranking tables because of 'fear of arrest'. I did not find that credible then and still do not now.

Just to be clear I personally have no idea if Turkey's economy is on an upward trend medium or long term or a downwards one care little either way. Nor do I seek to deny or ignore the very serious things that are going on in Turkey with regards to freedom of expression and criticism of the current AKP regime.

Erolz,

Erdogan's government has bullied rating agencies Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's, and Fitch Group in the past when ever they had or wanted to lower Turkey's credit ratings, therefore you should not be surprised if they have also bullied other agencies such as CEBR or social media groups who may have an office in Turkey. This is how Erdogan's government works, is to shut-up anyone and everyone who does not agree with them, just as telling the EU to mind it's own business for arresting journalist as terrorists. My comments on "fear of arrest" of the author of the article Hulya Güler was partly a "tongue in cheek" comment, but not entirely, because the author decided not to contradict Erdogan's predictions of Turkey not reaching the 10th spot by 2023, or even in 2030! I believe there is a fear of arrest of journalist and others in Turkey if they were to "insult" Erdogan, which the government determines what defines an insult that gives them justification to arrest whom ever they want. This is the other way that Turkey is going backwards also.

[Lordo]

now this makes interesting reading.

According to Standard & Poor’s, the union said, in 2009 Demetriades, as the manager of this fund, preferred the Turkish market. “We have documents that confirm the above,” the union said. Nik had to freeze any decisions, regarding a strategic investor, taken by the Turk-loving Demetriades, because he could have assigned bilateral agreements between states to “carriers with Turkish interests,” the union warned.

taken from http://cyprus-mail.com/2015/01/04/tales-from-the-coffeeshop-everything-but-prosperous-new-year/


terggish air lines may yet come to the aid of little old poor cyprus.

[Kikapu]

Erolz, you are welcome to come back earliest in 2019 and tell me that I was wrong about CEBR's future figures on Turkey's world GDP ranking and continue saying I was wrong all the way to 2030, but not before, because Turkey's main Achilles heel is it's currency, the Turkish Lira when it comes to world GDP rankings that is indexed in USD. Any currency that loses almost 50% of it’s value against the USD in just 3 years and counting, doesn’t stand much of a chance to climb the world GDP ranking very high. In fact, the opposite is expected.

A new article on the present and the future of our good friend Erolz's beloved Turkish Lira!

Political noise over rates revives worst-case scenario for lira

Market speculations that the Turkish lira could lose substantial value due to unorthodox monetary policies under intense political pressure may now become a reality as the Turkish president and government still clamor for an early rate cut, the very reason behind the lira's recent depreciation, observers warned on Friday.

The Turkish lira tumbled to a fresh record low of 2.4485 against the dollar on Friday after recent political commotion over interest rates undermined investor confidence in the central bank. The lira lost value against the greenback for the fourth straight day. The losses in local currency come as the central bank is torn between an angry president railing against an interest rate hike and punitive markets baying for a rise. Market observers said on Friday the central bank may soon have to introduce a steep rate hike to avert the lira's free fall against foreign currency.

http://www.todayszaman.com/business_pol ... 71234.html

[Kikapu]

Is Turkey cooking the books again?

Turkey's Vanishing $8 Billion

No one knows where this money is coming from. Something bizarre is happening on Turkey’s accounting books, and nobody’s quite sure why.
Turkey attracted $7.9 billion of income from unexplained sources during the first eight months of 2014, compared to an outflow of $90 million during the same period a year ago, according to the central bank data. In the three months that followed, $5.6 billion of that left the country.

Unexplained flows of foreign funds into and out of the economy -- marked as “net errors and omissions” in Turkey’s Balance of Payments report -- showed violent swings during the first 11 months of 2014. Outflows in November were estimated to be $3.46 billion, the biggest monthly exodus in more than 16 years, according to central bank data.

Massive amounts of mysterious inflows or outflows raises doubts about Turkey’s ability to finance its current-account deficit, which the government has called the economy’s “Achilles Heel.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... isappeared

[Kikapu]

Erdogan's majority supporters can only be economically ignorant if they buy the bull he is selling them, that high interest rates cause high inflation.

To all the non-economically ignorant Turks and the rest of the world, it is the other way around!

Private sector loses TL 18.7 billion due to tumbling lira

Turkish private sector debts have increased by TL 18.7 billion ($7.8 billion) since Jan. 20 of this year, when the Central Bank of Turkey cut its one-week repo rate by 50 basis points, dealing a further blow to the Turkish lira against major world currencies.

The debt of Turkey's private businesses was $175.6 billion on Jan. 20, but this has spiked to $183.4 billion as of Feb.1.

Having been the target of strong criticism from senior governmental figures, including President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, for its interest rate policy, Turkey's central bank lowered the main interest rate from 8.25 percent to 7.75 percent on Jan. 20. However, Erdoğan -- a persistent supporter of lower interest rates -- has kept up the pressure, on every occasion reiterating his assertion that high interest rates cause high inflation.

http://www.todayszaman.com/business_pri ... 71520.html

[Lordo]

interest rates go up and down. when it goes up they lose and when it comes down they make money. big wow. have you got nothing else to do.