Cyprus-Forum.com

[Kikapu]

Just to make a correction to the previous report, the GDP for Turkey in 2013 was 1.44 trillion in Turkish Liras and not in USD.

GDP stood at $1.44 trillion in 2013, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculations.
http://www.todayszaman.com/national_tur ... 65770.html

[Kikapu]

Many of those who built "gecekondus" on occupied public lands became rich. The end result was a process of unintended but inclusive growth.

But we now have reached the limits of this inclusive growth strategy. At this point, it is worth quoting the World Bank's “Turkey’s Transitions” report in full:

“The country will need to find new sources of growth as the benefits of structural change start to peter out. This is all the more important because it appears that in recent years, in particular, growth has been increasingly driven by domestic demand, a credit fueled construction boom, and the rise of the service economy to support Turkey’s growing cities. Productivity growth has slowed markedly since 2007 and growth has been associated with rising external imbalances.”

This is serious stuff. Politicians no longer have a migration boom to ride. If they want growth to continue, they need to reform the economy. Unfortunately, 2014 was a lost year. So was 2013. In fact, our politicians have not been serious about structural reforms since 2007. As things stand, I doubt they intend to correct course in 2015.
January/03/2015
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/how-th ... sCatID=403

[erolz66]

Sorry, the journalist does not write a story about the CEBR report, she summarises its content. Where does she make any comment - good or bad about the report? Lacking any critical remarks her "story" could be interpreted as spreading anti-Turkish propaganda, whether she wrote it or not. One has to ask oneself why she copied it to Hurriyet, let's hope the Turkish authorities don't ask the same question.

Exactly. So the argument that the claim that Turkey would recover and improve it's GDP going forward can not be a result of her trying to 'mollify' the Turkish authorities for fear of arrest, because she is not the one who made that prediction. For that prediction to be the result of 'fear of arrest' rather than genuine belief one has to believe that the CEBR deliberately said the opposite of what they actually thought because they believed THEY might be arrested by the Turkish government - and that is just not credible to me at least.

Turkey's media crackdown is being noticed in other places,.....

I understand Jerry that you want to talk about the treatment of media in Turkey, and such is worthy of discussion (and condemnation). However in this thread all I am saying is that Kikapu used a report to reach a conclusion, by taking one aspect of the report that supported the conclusion he wanted to reach and ignored those parts of it that did not. When this was pointed out he then claimed the parts that did not support his conclusion were the result of 'fear of arrest', yet that is not credible given who actually wrote the report. That is all I am saying.

[Jerry]

Sorry, the journalist does not write a story about the CEBR report, she summarises its content. Where does she make any comment - good or bad about the report? Lacking any critical remarks her "story" could be interpreted as spreading anti-Turkish propaganda, whether she wrote it or not. One has to ask oneself why she copied it to Hurriyet, let's hope the Turkish authorities don't ask the same question.

Exactly. So the argument that the claim that Turkey would recover and improve it's GDP going forward can not be a result of her trying to 'mollify' the Turkish authorities for fear of arrest, because she is not the one who made that prediction. For that prediction to be the result of 'fear of arrest' rather than genuine belief one has to believe that the CEBR deliberately said the opposite of what they actually thought because they believed THEY might be arrested by the Turkish government - and that is just not credible to me at least.

Turkey's media crackdown is being noticed in other places,.....

I understand Jerry that you want to talk about the treatment of media in Turkey, and such is worthy of discussion (and condemnation). However in this thread all I am saying is that Kikapu used a report to reach a conclusion, by taking one aspect of the report that supported the conclusion he wanted to reach and ignored those parts of it that did not. When this was pointed out he then claimed the parts that did not support his conclusion were the result of 'fear of arrest', yet that is not credible given who actually wrote the report. That is all I am saying.

It’s not clear who Kikapu is referring to when he says “the author”. You have assumed he means the person who wrote the CEBR report, perhaps he can clarify.

Obviously Hulya Guler did not write the CEBR report but she may have been selective in copying extracts to “mollify” the authorities, one would need to read the complete report to know.

[erolz66]

It’s not clear who Kikapu is referring to when he says “the author”. You have assumed he means the person who wrote the CEBR report, perhaps he can clarify.

It really does not matter who he is referring to. He takes a selective piece from the report that supports a conclusion that Turkey is 'going backwards' and ignores the part of the report that shows medium term it is not going 'backwards'. When this is pointed out to him he claims that the parts he ignores have been falsified because those that made the predictions (not those that report on them) were fearful of arrest. This 'excuse' is clearly not credible once you accept the source of the report is not a journalist in Turkey but an independent group based outside of Turkey, who's professional living is based on the quality and accuracy of their reports.

Obviously Hulya Guler did not write the CEBR report but she may have been selective in copying extracts to “mollify” the authorities, one would need to read the complete report to know.

You can read the report , its on the link I put way back to the CEBR website. You can claim Hulya Guler may have chosen what parts of the report to comment on based on fear, though she actually comments on both the negative and the positive parts of the report re Turkley, but you can not in my view reasonably claim that the CEBR itself actively lied about their predictions for Turkey's GDP ranking in the future based on 'fear of arrest', yet this is what kikapu appears to do and then you appear to support.

[Kikapu]

It’s not clear who Kikapu is referring to when he says “the author”. You have assumed he means the person who wrote the CEBR report, perhaps he can clarify.

It really does not matter who he is referring to. He takes a selective piece from the report that supports a conclusion that Turkey is 'going backwards' and ignores the part of the report that shows medium term it is not going 'backwards'. When this is pointed out to him he claims that the parts he ignores have been falsified because those that made the predictions (not those that report on them) were fearful of arrest. This 'excuse' is clearly not credible once you accept the source of the report is not a journalist in Turkey but an independent group based outside of Turkey, who's professional living is based on the quality and accuracy of their reports.

I was of course referring to Hulya Güler as being the author of the article and not the author of the CEBR report itself. My friend Erolz is getting worked up on the semantics about on what I said about Turkey going economically backwards. When Turkey was saying that by 2023 it will become the 10th largest economy in the world and taking CEBR's predictions at face value (which I don't because the Turkish lira is fundamentally a weak currency against the USD, therefore it will be very hard for Turkey's GDP to climb the world ranking ladder when the index is based on USD), at best according to CEBR, Turkey will become the 14th largest economy in the world in the year 2030. If that isn’t going backwards, then I don't know what is. But even taking the 2019 predictions putting Turkey back at 17th place according to CEBR, that is a backward loss of 5 years from it’s 2013 position if nothing else, so I don't know why Erolz can't accept Turkey's backwards economic trends for the foreseeable future as fact.

Obviously Hulya Guler did not write the CEBR report but she may have been selective in copying extracts to “mollify” the authorities, one would need to read the complete report to know.

You can read the report , its on the link I put way back to the CEBR website. You can claim Hulya Guler may have chosen what parts of the report to comment on based on fear, though she actually comments on both the negative and the positive parts of the report re Turkley, but you can not in my view reasonably claim that the CEBR itself actively lied about their predictions for Turkey's GDP ranking in the future based on 'fear of arrest', yet this is what kikapu appears to do and then you appear to support.

Turkey continually threatens the 3 main rating agencies, Standard & Poor's (S&P), Moody's, and Fitch Group, if they gave Turkey a bad rating, so who is to say Turkey has not also threatened the CEBR with similar shenanigans if they made their assessments on Turkey's future world rankings any worse than they already have against what Turkey was predicting only a year ago about being worlds 10th largest economy by the year 2023?

Of course, in Erolz view, Turkey is not capable of doing such a thing, right?

[erolz66]

When Turkey was saying that by 2023 it will become the 10th largest economy in the world and taking CEBR's predictions at face value (which I don't because the Turkish lira is fundamentally a weak currency against the USD, therefore it will be very hard for Turkey's GDP to climb the world ranking ladder when the index is based on USD), at best according to CEBR, Turkey will become the 14th largest economy in the world in the year 2030. If that isn’t going backwards, then I don't know what is. But even taking the 2019 predictions putting Turkey back at 17th place according to CEBR, that is a backward loss of 5 years from it’s 2013 position if nothing else, so I don't know why Erolz can't accept Turkey's backwards economic trends for the foreseeable future as fact.

My point is you were happy to use the CEBR report 'at face value' when it matched what I suspect you want to believe, that Turkey is going backwards. That it had Turkey going from 17th in 2013 to 19th in 2014, you used this report from the CEBR to declare 'Turkey is going backwards'. Yet the SAME report's predictions place Turkey back at 17th by 2019, 16th by 2024 and 14th by 2030 and you choose to dismiss this on the basis that first they are scared or arrest and now that Turkey has somehow 'bullied' them into saying that. To me going 17th, 19th, 17th, 16th and then 14th is not a trend that is 'going backwards' ? 2023?

I am sorry Kikapu and I really am not trying to be obtuse here but when I see someone take one aspect of a report as evidence of something and dismiss the rest of the same report using the most spurious of reasons, then I suspect that they may well be more interested in reaching a pre determined conclusion rather than an interest in what the evidence of that report suggests. When I see someone take a trend of 17,19,17,16,14 and proclaim that they can not understand how anyone could deny the 'fact' that this is a backwards trend, I end up with pretty much the same suspicion.

[Kikapu]

When Turkey was saying that by 2023 it will become the 10th largest economy in the world and taking CEBR's predictions at face value (which I don't because the Turkish lira is fundamentally a weak currency against the USD, therefore it will be very hard for Turkey's GDP to climb the world ranking ladder when the index is based on USD), at best according to CEBR, Turkey will become the 14th largest economy in the world in the year 2030. If that isn’t going backwards, then I don't know what is. But even taking the 2019 predictions putting Turkey back at 17th place according to CEBR, that is a backward loss of 5 years from it’s 2013 position if nothing else, so I don't know why Erolz can't accept Turkey's backwards economic trends for the foreseeable future as fact.

My point is you were happy to use the CEBR report 'at face value' when it matched what I suspect you want to believe, that Turkey is going backwards. That it had Turkey going from 17th in 2013 to 19th in 2014, you used this report from the CEBR to declare 'Turkey is going backwards'. Yet the SAME report's predictions place Turkey back at 17th by 2019, 16th by 2024 and 14th by 2030 and you choose to dismiss this on the basis that first they are scared or arrest and now that Turkey has somehow 'bullied' them into saying that. To me going 17th, 19th, 17th, 16th and then 14th is not a trend that is 'going backwards' ? 2023?

I am sorry Kikapu and I really am not trying to be obtuse here but when I see someone take one aspect of a report as evidence of something and dismiss the rest of the same report using the most spurious of reasons, then I suspect that they may well be more interested in reaching a pre determined conclusion rather than an interest in what the evidence of that report suggests. When I see someone take a trend of 17,19,17,16,14 and proclaim that they can not understand how anyone could deny the 'fact' that this is a backwards trend, I end up with pretty much the same suspicion.

My point is you were happy to use the CEBR report 'at face value' when it matched what I suspect you want to believe, that Turkey is going backwards.

Yes of course I can take CEBR's report at face value on something that has already happened and has become fact, that Turkey's position on world GDP ranking has gone from 17th to 19th position in one year from 2013 to 2014, but the future predictions cannot be taken at face value because they are just that, predictions, assumptions, proposals, forecasts, assurances, belief, calculations, confidence, hope, probability, conjecture, likelihood, suppositions, presumptions, looking forward, prospects, outlook, expectations, computations, prognosis, judgments, estimations, reckoning, figuring and premonitions!

Erolz, you are welcome to come back earliest in 2019 and tell me that I was wrong about CEBR's future figures on Turkey's world GDP ranking and continue saying I was wrong all the way to 2030, but not before, because Turkey's main Achilles heel is it's currency, the Turkish Lira when it comes to world GDP rankings that is indexed in USD. Any currency that loses almost 50% of it’s value against the USD in just 3 years and counting, doesn’t stand much of a chance to climb the world GDP ranking very high. In fact, the opposite is expected.

[Jerry]

Clearly Kikapu accepts the short term prediction of the CEBR but questions its longer term forecasts. Frankly I question them myself especially when that body puts the UK economy ahead of Germany in 2030. In the case of the UK it would depend on which political party is in power in the intervening years. Do the predictions for Turkey assume that the AKP will remain in power for the next decade or two?

As for "spurious reasons",
And some have argued that one article of the new Capital Markets Act could be used as a tool with which to censor critical economic commentary. “Any economist, investment banker or financial analyst who expresses negative views on the economy can potentially be criminally charged,” says Hakura. “That has caused a stir in the financial sector.”
Suggestions that government may be prepared to censure economic dissenters emerged after the prime minister accused Muharrem Yilmaz, chairman of the influential Turkish Industry and Business Association (Tusiad), of treason following a speech he made implying that the questionable independence of Turkey’s regulatory institutions could deter foreign investment. “Other business associations say what they have to say behind closed doors,” states Kemal Kirisci, senior fellow and Turkey expert at the Brookings Institution, a US think tank, and director of the Centre on the United States and Europe’s Turkey Project.
http://www.economistinsights.com/countr ... ble-turkey

Turkey now attempts to reach its critics abroad. Gulen,the exiled cleric, recently faced a symbolic threat of extradition from the US. One wonders how far Erdogan will go to silence his country's dissenters and critics.

[Lordo]

why should gulen not be brought back for trial if he has committed a crime. if he has not committed a crime they will not be able to extradite him will they. but of course since when has justice been a priority for the west and in particular the yanks lands.

as to terggish economic strength if going from 19 to 14 is a backward move may it accelerate to 10 which is a worst position according shitface.