Cyprus-Forum.com

by **Maximus** » Wed Dec 28, 2011 5:14 pm

US$ vs Turkish Lira

A new 52 week low for the lira today.

Expect greater weakness.

by **supporttheunderdog** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 3:59 pm

back up to 1.88550/USD as of today

by **Kikapu** » Mon Jan 02, 2012 6:50 pm

supporttheunderdog wrote:back up to 1.88550/USD as of today

That's because most of the world's markets are closed today, therefore, the TL is not under too much pressure.

$1 USD = 1.8961 TRY..... January 2nd, 2012

But the main focus should be on TL's overall downwards slide against the $Dollar and other major world currencies for the past 12 months and not what it does on the daily ups and downs. The TL is down about 23% for the last 1 year. That is a huge loss for any currency, even without a high inflation rate, which Turkey also suffers from at presently around 10% along with high unemployment. Not a very stable currency or economy if you ask me, despite claims by Turkey having a great economy based on growth domestically.

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by **davidtr** » Wed Jan 04, 2012 8:12 am

It looks like lots of turcofobians are here and veryyy happy.....dont be so sick...your hate can be very harmful to yourselves not us....

Yes turkey has a big trade deficit....2011 results : it is about 10 % of GDP...bad!!!!

but

Turkey has a small budget deficit. 20 billion for 2011 so country` collect tax and invest. GDP is 780 billion dollars...Foreign direct investment is 12 billion...

Turkey has a 40 % external debt to GDP ration which is very good according to Euro norms. Cyprus 129 % and Greece 175+% of GDP ...... Greece and Cyprus and all other European countries swim in debt

good luck! i am sorry i made greeks and cypricots a little sad now i know but dont worry guys!

So turkey has a trade deficit because country is growing very fast (too fast 2011 growthe rate is 9% which is dangerous 5-6 % is ideal growth rates which turkey aims) and turkey is very dependent to oil and gas import 95 %.... the gas oil bill for turkey is 100 billion for one year which we pay to arabs and russia....

Good news for turkey he can cut its imports and close trade deficit which is in the hands of turkish goverment but if a country has a external debt your creditors dictate the rules to you. Ex: Greece. IMF and ECB dictatet the rules to greece. sorry!

New bridges, raods, homes, railways, universities, hospitals, hotels are underconstruction in turkey

come and see with your own eyez... we are preparing to 2023 which is the 100th year of birth of Turkey

by **Kikapu** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:42 pm

Davidtr,

Then why do you suppose this report has very negative outlook for Turkey's future if everything is as rosy as you believe it to be? :roll:

No wonder the Turkish Stock market has been under a lot of pressure in the last 1 year.

chart..png

Goals depend on external financing

ISTANBUL- Hürriyet Daily News
Gökhan [email protected]

The Turkish government’s ambitious 2012 growth goal is dependent on external financing, amounting to at leans $120 billion, according to İş Investment report

The construction sector in Turkey will remain strong in 2012, according to the annual outlook report by İş Investment.

The fate of Turkey’s economy depends on external financing as the country’s performance signals a hard landing with a 1.5 percent expected GDP growth rate, as projected by a top economist yesterday, who predicts a bumpy and challenging road ahead.

“Turkey’s external financing needs will be a decisive factor in economic growth and current account targets,” said Burcu Ünüvar, senior economist at İş Investment, speaking to the Daily News at the Investment Strategies 2012 meeting. She pointed out that if Turkey were to receive $120.4 billion in external financing then they could achieve nearly 1.7 percent growth.

However, if the country does not receive the necessary funding for this year, then growth could be as low as minus 2.5 in the worst case scenario. Evaluating the Central Bank’s dollar sales Dec. 30, 2011 and the first two trading days of this year, she said, “If a country is this dependent on external financing, interventions cannot continue for long.”

‘Ain’t no sunshine in exports’

“Ain’t no sunshine on the export front” read the strategy report for 2012 prepared by İş Investment analysts. Four out of Turkey’s top five trading partners are in Europe (Germany, United Kingdom, Italy and France) with a 34 percent share of total exports.

“These countries are the ones currently subject to the most severe risks, and things do not seem bright in alternative markets like the Middle East and North Africa,” said Ünüvar. Accounting for roughly 10 percent of Turkey’s imports and exports, the slowdown in Germany warrants a closer look, according to the economist.

Domestic demand constitutes nearly 70 percent of Turkey’s gross domestic growth, Ünüvar said, with a limited level of household leverage at 20 percent of GDP, fuelling the strong borrowing appetite. “The upshot of this is the Turkish economy has moved towards leveraging, while the rest of the world is striving to deleverage.”

Moreover, Turkey’s savings fell short of the country’s investment needs, she said. According to official data, savings in Turkey were at 13 percent of GDP at the end of 2011, around 21 points below that of emerging economies.

January/05/2012

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/goals- ... sCatID=346

by **CBBB** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 1:58 pm

The construction sector in Turkey will remain strong in 2012, according to the annual outlook report by İş Investment.

Of course it remains strong, every time there is a minor earthquake everything falls down and needs to be rebuilt!

by **Kikapu** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:09 pm

CBBB wrote:
The construction sector in Turkey will remain strong in 2012, according to the annual outlook report by İş Investment.

Of course it remains strong, every time there is a minor earthquake everything falls down and needs to be rebuilt!

That's what developing countries do...they build and grow to become a developed country someday.

Most of the western developed countries went through the same thing many many years ago.

Turkey is trying to catch up with the other world's developed countries in the 21st century, when the rest did it in the 20th century.

Turkey may need another 50 or more years to do it.

by **Maximus** » Thu Jan 05, 2012 2:13 pm

davidtr wrote:It looks like lots of turcofobians are here and veryyy happy.....dont be so sick...your hate can be very harmful to yourselves not us....

Yes turkey has a big trade deficit....2011 results : it is about 10 % of GDP...bad!!!!

but

Turkey has a small budget deficit. 20 billion for 2011 so country` collect tax and invest. GDP is 780 billion dollars...Foreign direct investment is 12 billion...

Turkey has a 40 % external debt to GDP ration which is very good according to Euro norms. Cyprus 129 % and Greece 175+% of GDP ...... Greece and Cyprus and all other European countries swim in debt good luck! i am sorry i made greeks and cypricots a little sad now i know but dont worry guys!

So turkey has a trade deficit because country is growing very fast (too fast 2011 growthe rate is 9% which is dangerous 5-6 % is ideal growth rates which turkey aims) and turkey is very dependent to oil and gas import 95 %.... the gas oil bill for turkey is 100 billion for one year which we pay to arabs and russia....

Good news for turkey he can cut its imports and close trade deficit which is in the hands of turkish goverment but if a country has a external debt your creditors dictate the rules to you. Ex: Greece. IMF and ECB dictatet the rules to greece. sorry!

New bridges, raods, homes, railways, universities, hospitals, hotels are underconstruction in turkey come and see with your own eyez... we are preparing to 2023 which is the 100th year of birth of Turkey

The market does not give a sh*t about your opinion, it does not give a sh*t about ours either.

Some here may be looking to make money from this opportunity which has huge potential. This has little to do with Turkophobia but everything to do with a possibility of making money. If you have enough conviction, put your money where your mouth is and just buy the thing. Telling us how great Turkey is does not get around the facts and it does not make you any money either.

The market has made a slight reaction off its highs, it is likely only temporary though because now they are just throwing away good money after bad.

Currency wars
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/curren ... sCatID=344

by **Maximus** » Fri Jan 06, 2012 1:04 am

The Bank’s direct sales were not declared, however the traders forecast that the total amount in four days since Dec. 30 exceeded $ 3.7 million.

Currency wars
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/curren ... sCatID=344

The Turkish central bank is good for approximately TL6.3m at higher rates of exchange!