Cyprus-Forum.com

[Nikitas]

"A possible recession in Europe" says the report. Where are these guys living? Almost all EU countries are posting shrinking growth rates, some even negative growth, and these guys are talking about "possible" recession.

A contributing factor to the recession is the transfer of manufacturing to "outsourcers", among them Turkey. The wisdom of moving manufacturing overseas to lower costs, while expecting the cheaper goods to find buyers amongs the unemployed former workers of the closed factories was suspect from the beginning. Whenever I put the question to economists they replied with references to the "new economy". Now it is obvious that there is no "new" economy, it is just plain economy and it is kicking them in the ass.

What is worrying in the case of Turkey, and I posted about this long before the crisis surfaced, is the lack of indigenous technology. Basing a nation's progress on its ability to offer cheaper goods is not the way to advance. It is the way to a financial bubble and when it bursts it affect everyone in the area.

My next door neihbor is a furniture maker. Some years ago he moved his production to Turkey (Greeks are big investors in Turkey by the way). He told me that the cost of one Greek worker's health insurenace for a week was more than the total cost of a Turkish worker for a month. Now this clever businessman is in dire straights because the downturn in the Greek economy means he has no clients. He has lost his export sales to because the quality suffered from the transfer.

I have seen the same story, on a bigger scale, repeated with Italian firms. And this is not to imply that the Turks are incapable of making quality goods. The problem is that the quality controllers are not in the factories, checking all phases of production. Technolgy has yet to invent distance quality control. And this shows in the final product.

[GreekIslandGirl]

I notice their products are swamping the pre-Christmas advertising spots. Hoping everyone's forgottten ....


Beko fridge freezer fire alert

In July 2011, the London Fire Brigade (LFB) issued an urgent warning of a fire risk related to certain Beko fridge freezer models. The fridge freezers have been linked to 20 fires in the capital since 2008, which injured 15 people and killed one.
The fault may affect up to 500,000 Beko fridge freezers manufactured between 2000 and 2006.
http://www.which.co.uk.

[Kikapu]

September sees worst CAD in 18 years at $6.76 bln

15 November 2011, Tuesday / TODAY'S ZAMAN, İSTANBUL

Turkey's current account deficit (CAD) surged by 79.1 percent in September compared to the same period of 2010, reaching the highest level in the ninth month of the past 18 years, at $6.76 billion.

The Central Bank of Turkey released its balance of payments report on Tuesday, revealing that Turkey's CAD jumped by 100.7 percent to $60.65 billion in the first nine months of the year compared to the same period of 2010. September's figures, the highest registered in this month since 1993, total slightly above the anticipated CAD figure of $6.7 billion. The country's CAD in August was $3.96 billion. The 100.7 percent rise in CAD in the January-September period indicates an increase of $30.4 billion over the same period of the previous year.

The unstoppable rise in the CAD has become a structural problem in Turkey, mainly emerging from the gap in the foreign trade deficit. While Turkey is trying to fill this gap by increasing its exports, its import of intermediate goods is on the rise. The government has been trying to get this chronic problem under control amid worries that the CAD could now haunt the markets for longer than expected. Turkey's foreign trade deficit increased drastically by $32.4 billion to reach $70.05 billion in the first nine months over the same months of 2010.

More
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-262883- ... 6-bln.html

[Kikapu]

Looks like the depreciating Turkish Lira has not been able to increase exports as Erdogan and VP were predicting. As I've stated before, Turkey does not have the products that the world desperately needs. In the meantime, Imports are staying high because Turks like to spend their borrowed money on foreign goods, regardless what the TL is doing. This is a double whammy to the Turkish Government, in a bad way !

Trade deficit nears $8 billion as imports surge in October

30 November 2011, Wednesday / TODAY'S ZAMAN, İSTANBUL


Turkey's economy had a trade deficit of $7.98 billion in October as imports grew by a significant 6.2 percent over exports, Wednesday's data from the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat) revealed.

TurkStat announced that the volume of Turkish exports rose by 8.9 percent to $11.93 billion in October over the same month a year ago, while the year-on-year growth in imports was recorded at 15.1 percent, bringing the amount of money Turkey paid to purchase goods from abroad to $19.9 billion. With the volume of imports growing faster than exports, the trade deficit last month was $1.65 billion higher when compared to the same month a year ago. The trade deficit was $10.4 billion in September. Despite a $2.5 billion decline from the previous month, October's data is still bleak as observers believed a depreciating Turkish lira could discourage imports and encourage exports as it provided Turkish goods with a price advantage against foreign goods in international markets.

http://www.todayszaman.com/news-264356- ... tober.html

[Kikapu]

VP and Erdogan can thank the devalued Turkish Lira and very high Imports for the rise in the inflation rate to almost 10%. So much for Turkey escaping the recent Financial Crises, told by Erdogan.

Turkey's inflation nears double digit

ISTANBUL- Hürriyet Daily News
December/05/2011

November inflation rate reached a 19-month high with 9.5 percent. Economists warn that the figure signals a yearend rate much higher than government estimates. The index ‘is a cold shower’, says a market analyst

Turkish inflation increased to 9.5 percent in November from 7.7 percent a month earlier, reaching a 19-month record as economists warn of a nearly two digit yearend figure.

The hike in food and clothing prices, increase in special consumption tax on tobacco, cars and mobile phones and rise in import taxes played a major role in the unexpectedly high inflation rate.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey ... sCatID=344

[Jerry]

It looks like the FT has picked up on forthcoming problems with the Turkish economy. "The second biggest current account deficit in the world in absolute terms after the US" Turkey managed to bullshit its way into Cyprus, let's see if it can bullshit its way out of its forthcoming economic crisis. It seems they won't listen to advice from IMF - pride comes before a fall.

Turkey’s economy surged at an annual rate of 8.2 per cent in the third quarter, in figures that highlighted the divide between the country’s growing self-confidence and external warnings of the risk of a hard economic landing ahead

But a number of analysts say growth is unduly reliant on domestic demand, with the risk of a hard economic landing next year. On Monday, Goldman Sachs predicted ”a technical recession during late 2011 and early 2012,” while Citigroup said: “the composition of growth remains grossly unbalanced, which raises questions about the sustainability of Turkey’s recent stellar growth performance”.

At issue are concerns about Turkey’s current account deficit, the second-biggest in the world in absolute terms after the US, rising inflation, now at 9.5 per cent, and controversy about Turkey’s monetary policy

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/430b9dfe-24c2 ... z1gQKECbZL

[Maximus]

It looks like the FT has picked up on forthcoming problems with the Turkish economy. "The second biggest current account deficit in the world in absolute terms after the US" Turkey managed to bullshit its way into Cyprus, let's see if it can bullshit its way out of its forthcoming economic crisis. It seems they won't listen to advice from IMF - pride comes before a fall.

Turkey’s economy surged at an annual rate of 8.2 per cent in the third quarter, in figures that highlighted the divide between the country’s growing self-confidence and external warnings of the risk of a hard economic landing ahead

But a number of analysts say growth is unduly reliant on domestic demand, with the risk of a hard economic landing next year. On Monday, Goldman Sachs predicted ”a technical recession during late 2011 and early 2012,” while Citigroup said: “the composition of growth remains grossly unbalanced, which raises questions about the sustainability of Turkey’s recent stellar growth performance”.

At issue are concerns about Turkey’s current account deficit, the second-biggest in the world in absolute terms after the US, rising inflation, now at 9.5 per cent, and controversy about Turkey’s monetary policy

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/430b9dfe-24c2 ... z1gQKECbZL

They ARE trying to bullshit their way out of it.

its all good though, others can profit from this buy shorting the ISE 100 and selling the sh*t out of the Turkish lira.
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkey ... sCatID=344

notice the misleading statistical graph. its like comparing a babies growth over a 3 year period to that of a middle aged man.

[B25]

Well it's going to be tougher for them to kepp paying the $500m pa to the ungrateful parasites in the north. I wonder what they will do then, both of them.

[Maximus]

Well it's going to be tougher for them to kepp paying the $500m pa to the ungrateful parasites in the north. I wonder what they will do then, both of them.

Starve and Starve

Am I right?

[B25]

Well it's going to be tougher for them to kepp paying the $500m pa to the ungrateful parasites in the north. I wonder what they will do then, both of them.

Starve and Starve

Am I right?

Well according to VP, they live a similar standard of living like those in the south

And they want to bring how many million gypsies over there??? Another joke of the century.