Cyprus-Forum.com

[Hermes]

The view of Erdogan's visit by Turkish Cypriots ...

Disquiet in north over Erdogan’s ‘dark side’
By Simon Bahceli

EXPECTATIONS had been were running high ahead of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the north this week. Rumour had it that fresh from last month’s election victory, the Turkish prime minister would use his 20 July ‘Peace and Freedom’ visit to kick start all-but-stalled reunification negotiations by announcing a deadlock-breaking or hope-inspiring proposal.

Optimistic eyes shifted to the fenced-off Famagusta suburb of Varosha in the vain anticipation that it might be offered to Greek Cypriots as a unilateral gesture of good will that would not only give new life to the talks, but also re-awaken Turkey’s EU accession negotiations before rigor mortis sets in.

Erdogan is well known as a politician who likes to surprise his audience – and surprise his audience he did. Not only did he not make concessions, but went all out in expressing a harder line towards Greek Cypriots and the EU than ever before.

Before he’d even left Ankara, Erdogan was saying the Turks would never relinquish Morphou; nor would they accept “even the slightest [territorial] adjustment” in the Karpas peninsula. Neither would there be any troop reductions – symbolic or otherwise. “We may have been willing to negotiate these things in 2004”, he said, “but not any more”.

What was perhaps most surprising about these statements is that they went against what Erdogan had been trying to do for the past nine years – painting the Greek Cypriots in a bad light by being ‘conciliatory’ and making it look as if the Turks and Turkish Cypriots were in favour of a solution while the Greek Cypriots sought to stall the process. Now he too looks like a staller. That is how the international community will see him now.

In the north itself and among a majority of Turkish Cypriots, he has left an even darker impression.
Erdogan’s visit was highly choreographed – not by the Turkish Cypriot authorities but by the public relations department of Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Giant posters of unarguably Turkey’s strongest leader since Turkey’s founding father Mustafa Kemal Ataturk were distributed and displayed across the north with a slogan telling the people that the hearts of Turkey and the ‘TRNC’ “beat as one”.

Buses were laid on to take those who wished to greet him and his entourage at Ercan [Tymbou] Airport, flags and bunting were hung up and handed out, and the roads along which he would travel got their annual tidy up. Security was tighter than ever.

On his arrival to rapturous applause from hundreds of admirers, Erdogan stood aloft his AK Party campaign bus and called out to his “Turkish Cypriots brothers and sisters”. Few will have heard him, because virtually none were there.
To say that Erdogan is not popular among Turkish Cypriots would be a vast understatement. When he came to power in 2002, most ultra-secular Turkish Cypriots distrusted his religious credentials. However, when he began breaking the mould of a decades-old Turkish foreign policy that saw the Cyprus problem as having been solved in 1974, pro-solutionists gained hope that Erdogan might offer a way forward.

International relations expert Umut Bozkurt from the Eastern Mediterranean University (EMU) in Famagusta says that, “Until very recently many people still believed that Erdogan was the only hope for a solution in Cyprus, because of his pragmatic approach towards EU membership. Now that too seems to be gone”.

But beyond Erdogan’s apparent loss of appetite for a Cyprus reunification and EU membership for his country, there is a growing anxiety in the north that Erdogan has truly taken off his gloves regarding them as well – or at least towards those who do not adhere to his new hard-line approach.

This was spelled out when groups of Turkish Cypriots sought to protest his arrival last Wednesday and found themselves being attacked, hospitalised and jailed for their efforts. Thuggish attacks by police and nationalists on protestors who tried to stage a demonstration on Erdogan’s route from the airport to Nicosia was swift and violent, as was the operation to remove an anti-Erdogan banner from a union building. Video and photographic images of police wading into a crowd of demonstrators punching and kicking indiscriminately is truly shocking and will undoubtedly remain in the memory of Turkish Cypriots for years.

During a speech in Famagusta on the evening of July 20 Erdogan warned “true and honest Turkish Cypriots” not to heed the voices of “anti-Turkish marginal groups” such as the ones who sought to stage the protests against his arrival in Nicosia. But what Erdogan fails to realise, or wish to remember, is that as recently as last spring tens of thousands of Turkish Cypriots twice took to the streets to demonstrate against him and his attempts to tighten Ankara’s grip on the north.

“Anyone who disagrees with Erdogan is regarded as marginal. So I guess I’m marginal too,” said EMU international relations expert Erol Kaymak. Many other rational and educated people are saying the same, including Bozkurt who believes Erdogan is seeking to silence opposition in north Cyprus in exactly the same way as he has in Turkey.

“They have exported their anti democratic ways to Cyprus, and in that context I guess I’d be regarded as marginal too”.
The question now for Turkish Cypriots is how far Erdogan will to go to suppress and silence his so-called marginal opposition. The worrying answer is that knowing him he will probably go as far as it takes.

http://www.cyprus-mail.com/erdogan/disq ... e/20110724

[Jerry]

Erdoguts must think we are stupid. His current "toughened stance" will be withdrawn as a concession to the GCs in time. His reckless attempt to put pressure on the EU will backfire when European investors realise that the EU is going cold on Turkey.

Mighty Turkey is "kicking" both Cyprus and the EU because it believes they are both down. Reading this one would think that Turkey, with its "dynamic" economy, can rescue the impoverished EU from disaster. The silly sods forget that half Turkey's exports and most of its investment is dependent on Europe.




Turkey increases pressure for a solution in Cyprus
A showdown/game/maneuver/crisis on Cyprus was an expected, or rather, an inevitable development between Turkey and the European Union.

The Greek Cypriot side of the island will assume the rotating presidency of the EU in July 2012. Turkey does not recognize or have contact with the Greek Cypriots. The EU and the Greek Cypriots were planning to pressure Turkey into taking steps on Cyprus during the presidency. However, in a deal breaker in this anticipated scenario, Ankara was the first to join in the game in such a decisive and clear manner that it now has the power to lay down the rules. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu sent the first signal when he suggested the speeding up of negotiations in Cyprus and holding a referendum on the island in January 2012. He made his move recently while EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Füle was in Ankara, and he directed attention towards Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s visit to the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC). Even before setting out for the trip, Erdoğan declared Turkey’s stance in much stronger and clearer terms. “We will not be contacting the Greek Cypriots during the term of their presidency. No Turkey-EU contact will take place for six months,” the prime minister said. “If it is not resolved by 2012, we will have to find solutions ourselves, and they already know that. We are not considering Greek Cypriots as an interlocutor on the Cyprus issue.” Erdoğan displayed an even tougher attitude about the content of the negotiations. He not only took a step back from the Annan plan, which the Greek Cypriots rejected in a referendum in 2004, but went on to make additional remarks, reminding people of the fact that Turkey had agreed to withdraw its troops along the lines of the Annan plan. Erdoğan lashed out by saying: “We will not withdraw troops. Güzelyurt [Morphou] belongs entirely to Turkish Cyprus. As for Karpaz [Karpas], the slightest change in its status is unacceptable. The conditions of the Annan plan have changed. We will be coming to the [negotiating] table differently.” The prime minister and the ministers accompanying him were welcomed with much enthusiasm in the KKTC, where officials were visiting on the occasion of the 37th anniversary of the 1974 Peace Operation. Some have indicated that it was the first time a Turkish prime minister had been welcomed with such exuberance since the late Bülent Ecevit, the prime minister who had ordered the operation. The harmony between Ankara and the KKTC is striking. Erdoğan uttered his previous words in public this time. “If push comes to shove, Turkey will sit down with northern Cyprus [KKTC] to discuss its attitude, will clarify its stance and will make its move,” Erdoğan added. Backdrop of the ultimatum So what is the reason for Turkey’s crystal-clear ultimatum? The aim is naturally not to freeze relations with the EU; on the contrary, it is to provide a solution to the Cyprus issue to show its determination for its EU goal. Ankara plans to turn the issue into a “crisis” and put it up for international public opinion. A senior official from the prime minister’s office, who requested anonymity while speaking with Sunday’s Zaman, clarified Turkey’s intentions. “Our aim is not to freeze relations with the EU. We are striving to make progress on the road to the EU,” the official said as he highlighted the need to set deadlines for the process. İbrahim Kalın, chief advisor to the prime minister, meanwhile, warned that interpreting Erdoğan’s ultimatum as a sign that “the government is giving up on the EU” would be wrong and that the intention to solve the Cyprus issue shows how serious it is in its EU bid. As Turkish Cypriots are taking the initiative on one side, attention has been diverted to the political crisis in the Greek Cypriot part on the other. This week’s blast at a Greek Cypriot naval base changed the agenda on the island completely and caused a political crisis to erupt when a major power plant was shut down by the explosion. The defense minister resigned, and this was followed by Foreign Minister Markos Kyprianou also stepping down. The Democratic Party (DIKO) is split in discussions whether to step down from government. The explosion also damaged the Greek Cypriot economy, which was already in dire straits. The purchase of electric power from the KKTC has attracted the ire of many, but mostly of the Church. The Greek Cypriot administration is battling a serious loss of reputation as many people and politicians vehemently call for leader Dimitris Christofias to resign. Without doubt, the political crisis on the Greek Cypriot side will influence the future of the extensive negotiations. The outcome of talks is considered to be relying on developments with the Greek Cypriots. It is not very likely that Christofias, currently between a rock and a hard place, will take the initiative and display a constructive attitude in negotiations. The Greek Cypriots will have to deal with this pressure on top of the economy, with the worst case scenario involving Christofias’s resignation, although unlikely. The circle has already tightened around him. Negotiations will also meet a technical dead end if he resigns, since he was the one leading the talks. It is even suspected that the Greek Cypriots may sacrifice Christofias in order to dodge the proposed referendum. Conditions change favorably for Turks It should be stressed that the situation is changing in favor of Turks in terms of power. Despite a global economic crisis the Turkish economy displayed record growth while the Greek economy went down the drain. The income disparity between the two sides of the island is also closing. The KKTC is now supplying power for the Greek Cypriots, which has huge symbolic significance. Because of this significance, the Cyprus Orthodox Church is saying, “We wish we were using candles instead of buying power from the Turks.” A construction project is also in progress to supply drinking water from Turkey to the KKTC, and it is scheduled to be completed by March 2014. When one considers that the biggest problem for the island is a shortage of drinking water, such a solution is sure to change the parameters. Then again, it is a question how the EU will respond to the ultimatum. There is no reason to be optimistic. It is pretty obvious that the EU has been applying double standards in Turkey’s EU membership talks and on the Cyprus issue, while it has failed to keep its promises. Otherwise, they would not have been so indifferent to this unfair situation after the 2004 referendum. Turkey is facing two possibilities now; this will either go for a vote in a new referendum, or it will not. All efforts are for a referendum to take place. Now is not the time to talk about the latter option
http://www.todayszaman.com/news-251451- ... yprus.html

[Kikapu]

Before he’d even left Ankara, Erdogan was saying the Turks would never relinquish Morphou; nor would they accept “even the slightest [territorial] adjustment” in the Karpas peninsula. Neither would there be any troop reductions – symbolic or otherwise. “We may have been willing to negotiate these things in 2004”, he said, “but not any more”.

It all about, Turks this and Turks that and Turks the other, according to Erdogan in his above statement. It's all about what the Turks want and nothing about the what the TCs want. Anymore doubt that Turkey is in Cyprus for themselves and not there for the TCs, and even more telling, that Turkey was never going to honour any part of the Annan Plan, but use the provisions in the AP to grab onto the whole of Cyprus. Basically what Erdogan is upset about, is that he wasn't able to get the results he thought he would get by using Morphou, Karpas and Verosha offer to return as a bait dangling in front of the GCs in 2004, in order to get a YES vote from them, which would have set the motion in place for Turkey to take over the whole island in time and also be a thorn at the EU's side to let her in on her own terms, all orchestrated through the north state in a "United Cyprus". He now wants to use the same places again, either as a punishment by refusing top return them to the GCs just because the GCs did not fall into his trap in 2004, or will once again wants to use them as a bait to get a YES vote to something similar to another AP in the future. What Erdogan does not realise, or that he realises but thinks that the GCs are too stupid to figure out his intentions, that by him playing hardball with the above places as now being off the table, he thinks he can now get a YES vote if he puts them back on the table at later stage once the GCs had enough time to grieve over the loss of these places. Call it a "reprieve for the GCs" if you like, "a second chance but don't miss it again or else", "a second bite at the apple" from the goodness of his heart.

Erdogan thinks this time around, the GCs will want to take these places back just so that they can turn around and give the whole island to him to become under Turkey's control. If that's what Erdogan is thinking, he is going to be in for a rude awakening shock. Just like all the NeoPartitionists who keep bringing up the AP of 2004 as the only form of solution for Cyprus, one thing they all keep forgetting is, that the whole island is already in the EU, and is a Internationally recognised UN member state. Turkey on the other hand will always be seen as an illegally occupying power in Cyprus as long as there isn't a settlement to the RoC's liking. Turkey has no intentions of just wanting to keep only the part she now occupies. Turkey needs the whole island and not just the part of it, so the question for the GCs is, as the same question was in front of them in 2004, do you want to gain back the above places in return losing the whole island to Turkey's control? Erdogan thinks the bait will work this time around. But not surprisingly, that question was answered with a resounding "OXI" back in 2004, but Erdogan does not take a NO for an answer, because he personally feels humiliated at the hands of the small island that he part occupies, specially for Cyprus controlling Turkey's relationship with the EU and his future EU membership. Erdogan thinks he in time can change the EU to think like Turkey, rather than Turkey to think like the EU. We all have dreams in life, is just that, Erdogan's dreams are far more grandiose than most of ours. Needless to say, Erdogan is struggling to bring about his dreams, just because little Cyprus is in his ways.

Erdogan is possessed and obsessed with his own importance on the world stage, that he thinks he can effect world politics, which he thinks the EU will need Turkey more than Turkey needs the EU, just so to have him represent the the whole EU on the world's stage. It was the reason why he stated last year, that without Turkey, the EU basically is nothing. Come to think of it, Erdogan is not only possessed, obsessed, but also full of arrogance too, but in reality, he has nothing to show for to even delude himself to believe what he says or thinks. It is almost like he is in his own world, where he may not only see himself as a King, but maybe even as a God. In the economic good times these such people may achieve some of their dreams, but it will only be very short lived, including themselves. Sooner or later, others who are waiting in his wings, will take over the reigns, may they be for better or for worse, time will tell what the outcome will be. In the meantime, Cyprus will continue to move forward to preserve the whole island to her own people, the Cypriots, and there is nothing Turkey can do about it, if the RoC does not cave into Erdogan's demands..

[Viewpoint]

Hes one step ahead of you people, you have shit yourselves in shock.

[Kikapu]

Hes one step ahead of you people, you have shit yourselves in shock.

I don't think so. Turkey's intentions were well know in 2004 with the disguised partition plans of the AP. Why do you think Papadopoulos went along with the AP making Turkey think it was a done deal, to have pulled the rug under Turkey's feet in the last minute. That's being one steps ahead of Turkey. Erdogan hasn't recovered from that shock yet, which is why he is trying to pull the same trick again. Everyone has already seen that movie, so they will not fall for it. It's time for Erdogan to change the reel for a new "movie" and his latest antics are not winning him any favours anywhere on the International stage..

[supporttheunderdog]

Hes one step ahead of you people, you have shit yourselves in shock.

Pissed ourselves laughing, more like it, because all the smart money has been on Erdogan sabotaging the Talks and finding an excuse to explain why EU accession talks are going nowhere, and blaiming the EU for allowing Cyprus to take its allocated term as President is before a settlement is just his way of throwing his dummy out of the Pram.