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10 July 2011, Sunday
YAVUZ BAYDAR


Columnists 10 July 2011, Sunday 2 0 0 0
YAVUZ BAYDAR
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‘Conflict of luxury’
“We hope to find a solution to the Cyprus problem by the end of the year, and hold a referendum in the early months of next year so that Cyprus can take on the presidency of the EU as a new state that represents the whole island.” These words came from Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, who visited the leader of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC), Derviş Eroğlu, on Friday.


Another routine statement? Not really. The visit followed talks between Eroğlu and his Greek Cypriot counterpart, Dimitris Christofias, in Geneva on Thursday. When one pays attention to what Ban Ki-moon, UN secretary-general, said after that meeting, there is some slight progress and new moves that may eventually turn 2012 into a year of solution.

Davutoğlu’s remarks must be seen as a further sign that Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) continues to be a pro-solution force on the chronic conflict. There are even those who argue that the AK Party would remain pro-solution even if there would not be any EU membership perspective for Ankara. North Cyprus is an economic burden; its full dependency on Turkey creates frustrations here as well as among Turkish Cypriots, whose sentiments turn more and more against the Turkish power holders in general.

But, this does not mean that a careless approach is underway. Had the Greek Cypriot administrations shown a constructive approach to a solution – their maximalism remains more or less the same -- we today would be elsewhere. So, what seems to be taking shape now is a new road map, on which both sides, all three guarantor powers and the international community would set a new journey.

The plan is the following. Eroğlu and Christofias will intensify their talks until October. They agreed to do that. Eroğlu, meanwhile, proposed in a new move that his side is ready to discuss territorial issues. This is a critical change because Christofias has been demanding that in order to negotiate property issues. We also learn that he has agreed to accept that political “majority control on both sides of the island will apply even if the property shares contradict that (up to 70 percent of the properties in the North belong to Greek Cypriots according to data before 1974).

If both sides note progress on all the core issues -- economy, governance, security, territory, etc., Ban plans to launch a large international Cyprus conference before the end of the year, at the latest in early 2012. This will be under the auspices of the UN, involving the guarantor powers -- Greece, Turkey and Britain -- and the EU. If the conference is successful, and a final settlement is reached, a plebiscite for both sides will take place before July 2012 when the presidency of the EU will be shouldered by the Cypriot administration. The hope is that the presidency will be symbolized by a “United Cyprus,” leaving an infected, tiresome past behind, fully engaged in healing the scars in a new process.

Can this work? Optimists are few, and skeptics are a majority. The latter argue (convincingly) that contrary to how Ban sees it, the conflict has been taken hostage by France and Russia in the Security Council and, to the frustration of far-sighted members of the EU, Greek Cyprus governments have managed to instrumentalize it to the extent that the EU serves its own interests. Even the Obama Administration is considerably influenced by the Greek lobby.

Odds are against a final agreement, but there are still two elements that may lead developments into the right (pro-solution) course. They are Greece and Turkey. Paradoxically, under enormous economic strain, Athens has been continuing its rapprochement with Ankara. With the recent draft law to allow muftis in Greece’s predominantly Muslim Western Thrace province to be elected, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou is paving the way for Ankara to reopen the Halki Seminary to educate Greek Orthodox clergy and eventually recognize the patriarch as “ecumenical.” Any concrete move in that direction (in both countries) will be very helpful in softening the Greek lobby in the US.

Turkey can also surprise, if the perspectives for an international conference and “double plebiscite” are strengthened. It may unilaterally open one or two seaports to Greek Cypriot vessels and even its airports. It may pull back a small part of the Turkish troops from the island as a symbolic gesture of goodwill. This will certainly have to result in a lot of change within the EU.

But the dark horse remains Greek Cyprus. In this sense: Christofias is weak, the Church is fiercely opposed to a solution, and society is to a large extent against unity. The public communications are lacking or, at the best, conducted in an old, venomous rhetoric. There is no doubt this troubled actor is encouraged to be engaged, one way or another, to play the game of reconciliation. Given the picture in the eastern Mediterranean, Cyprus is the “conflict of luxury,” so it needs to end.

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