Cyprus-Forum.com

[CBBB]

By Max Gevers
Published on July 10, 2011

THE UN is pushing the parties in the Cyprus problem to intensify negotiations and show convergence on core issues by October, in other words it wants speedy results. So far, the negotiations of the last few years have achieved little of major importance. Tentative expressions about power sharing and settlers fall far short of hard agreements which are desperately necessary.

The reason why is not hard to see: lack of incentive to settle for Turkey and for the Cypriot Government. Turkey's EU- bid, the biggest international political impetus to push parties to a solution, is in coma. Another incentive, the search for hydrocarbons, is not taken up in a spirit of active joint cooperation by the parties, in this case Cyprus, northern-Cyprus and Turkey. The Cypriot Government does not show any enthusiasm to move forward either. On the contrary, it keeps talking of avoiding time frames and outside intervention and emphasises the need for a solution to be based on principles and other long out of date mantra's. Now the UN has finally stepped in and put its foot down.

What can be done? For a dispassionate observer it is not difficult to see, but for Cypriots, so thoroughly indoctrinated, almost impossible to fathom. What is needed is an 'asphyxiating' time frame and, if possible, some powerful intervention combined with real arm twisting by outside parties. The UN would appear to be doing, in a careful and diplomatic way, just that: minimum lip-service to 'Cyprus owned and Cyprus-led' negotiations, more serious results by October, enhanced UN-role, in the end capped by an international conference.

The present lack of these two main elements allows the Cypriot Government to continue doing little internally and internationally about the Cyprus problem. It does not realise that the UN and even more so the EU, are bored stiff with the Cyprus problem. They hardly pay more than political lip service to it, the UN throwing in some military personnel and the EU looking at its watch and going on to the next item on the agenda as fast as possible! Now, finally, the UN says diplomatically 'enough is enough'.

Deadlines are perfectly normal in the UN-context, being often the only mechanism that ensures a modicum of success to negotiations. Hardly any international negotiations are ever successful without proper deadlines. Their absence, especially if there is also a lack of incentive, usually guarantees that nothing important will happen. It allows parties to continue happily doing nothing, annoy everybody, blame others except oneself and, in general, behave as obnoxiously as possible. On the internal political side it ensures a never ending asphyxiating blame game, and the government earning some political brownie points internally.

What is needed is real political will and a hard-nosed sense of international political realism, not island parochiality. Cyprus needs precisely what it fights so hard to avoid: an asphyxiating deadline for the solution of its problem! In the absence of a direct and powerful incentive for Turkey, a hard deadline would perk up the talks putting them back on a serious international agenda with all that this implies. A deadline would force the parties to clearly and sharply articulate the architecture of a solution, to define its elements, its costs, to envision a future. It would focus the attention of the parties on what is really needed, instead of playing around in a cloud and boring others as is happening right now. Only after such effort at definition and focusing, can there again be serious international attention for a solution. The same thing happened in the past, with an international pledging conference for aid to a solution, before Cyprus engaged in its gigantic effort at misinformation and deception of the Annan-plan.

That Cyprus cannot achieve a solution on its own, is clear to everybody. One must assume that the Cypriot Government also knows that. The fact that it insists that it can, and subsequently does nothing, merely shows an unwillingness to get to grips with the substance of the problem and a desire to continue to search for the international limelight in the shadow of its own division. Besides this horrible asphyxiating time frame, more is needed: some powerful outside intervention! Greece, Turkey, the UK and the US all have their role to play and the UN as well.

Serious political arm twisting is called for. All parties need it. The Greek- and Turkish-Cypriots, more than anyone else, need to know that the present situation has to and will change, to the better if they grab the chance, to the worse if they don't. Greece, for its own reasons, needs to redouble its efforts to settle the Aegean issue with Turkey and negotiate intensively with Turkey about the future of Cyprus, initially most definitely without the participation of the Cyprus parties themselves. Turkey needs to come to terms with the reality of a serious solution. Both the US, the UK and the EU could use its leverage to convince the Turks and the Cypriots that some major compromises are needed. All this means that a solution is simply impossible without outside intervention and without disowning the Greek and Turkish Cypriots of part of the process.

Last but not least, the parties in Cyprus have to reconcile themselves, psychologically, with the likely terms of a solution. Indeed, building support is what the UN Secretary-General is now calling for as well. The authorities in the North and the Cyprus Government both have to embark on immediate and intensive sustained efforts to prepare their population for the various elements and realities of a solution. Incidentally, all the elements of a solution are well known and rehearsed. It is not like Cyprus would be barging into the unknown. They need to be put together again in a coherent architecture for a settlement.

The public relations effort has to happen and fast because such things take time. Unfortunately, nothing has been done so far which bodes ill for a possible future referendum. If nothing on this score happens in the coming months, it will be quite indicative of the willingness of Cypriots to work for a solution, despite the warning of the UN that it might well pull the plug later this year.

Why are these public relations efforts vital? Because the parties must get to grips with reality. They need to, indeed must, be clearly aware - before the referenda take place - what the possible consequences would be if they fail. No more UN mediation, eventual withdrawal of UN troops, partition, the Cypriot National Guard facing the Turkish army directly, no unhindered exploration and production of hydro-carbons meaning very serious loss of income for Cyprus, loss of tourism and services in an unstable environment, a goodbye kiss to the famous but so far empty slogan of Cyprus being a bridge between Europe and the Middle East. What remains would be, merely, an island of love . . . for some!

Max Gevers is a former Netherlands ambassador to Cyprus

http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus-probl ... e/20110710

[B25]

More bollocks talk from another tosser.

What the UN needs to be doing is enforcing its own resolutions against Turkey instead of pussyfooting around her and acting the big guy in front of Cyprus.

Pres. X may say its a Cypriot led solution but thats just rubbish, since he is indirectly talking to Turkey, the puppets on the otherside just move their mouthes to Ankaras strings.

Deadline or no deadline, there will be no solution for as long as Turkey has her troops here, the settler gypsies are still here and that cypriots cannot return to their properties both side.

These are the basic 3 elements to any solution, anything else is just talking shit again. And we all know that's all the UN can talk these days. Jobs for the boys, just a talking shop. Pft!

[Piratis]

Sounds like Max Gevers is yet another Turkophile neo-Nazi who believes that the UN principles are now "out of date".

What Cyprus needs is enforcement of the UN resolutions, something that should have been done since 1974. If the UN instead of enforcing its own resolutions is only interested in "twisting the arm" of the victim of an invasion, in an effort to force the victim to accept things such as ethnic cleansing and human rights violations, then such kind of UN has no reason to exist and has no role to play, since this "arm twisting" by the powerful against the weak was exactly why the UN was formed in the first place.

1/3rd of our island is under occupation, nobody could have more incentive for a solution than us. We have a huge insensitive for a just solution that would liberate the north part of our country from the foreign invaders. But apparently the "settlement" that this cheap replica of Hitler wants to be forced on Cyprus has nothing to do with solving the problem that the invasion created to the Cypriot people, and everything to do with serving the interests of his fascist friends.

Thankfully such kind of people are not alone in the UN or EU and their fascist views can not pass.

[Kikapu]

Why are these public relations efforts vital? Because the parties must get to grips with reality. They need to, indeed must, be clearly aware - before the referenda take place - what the possible consequences would be if they fail. No more UN mediation, eventual withdrawal of UN troops, partition, the Cypriot National Guard facing the Turkish army directly, no unhindered exploration and production of hydro-carbons meaning very serious loss of income for Cyprus, loss of tourism and services in an unstable environment, a goodbye kiss to the famous but so far empty slogan of Cyprus being a bridge between Europe and the Middle East. What remains would be, merely, an island of love . . . for some!

I was happy to go along with the whole article as being "sensible" until I reached the last paragraph (above) where it ONLY points out what problems (punishment) the RoC (GCs) will face once the time frames run out, but nothing was said what problems (punishment) Turkey (TCs) will face also, therefore, with such biased view that ONLY the RoC (GCs) will lose out (punished) if a solution is not found, just what exactly would be the incentives for Turkey (TCs) to even find a solution when they do not stand to lose anything but have everything to gain by running out the clock given to them with "time frames" to find a solution ?

[antifon]

That Cyprus cannot achieve a solution on its own, is clear to everybody.

Can Turkey achieve a solution on its own vis-a-vis the Kurds? She has been at it since the 1920s.

The writer's article shows how conditioned we are in approaching Cyprus' Turkish problem, how set we are in our thinking... how boxed in. We are all conditioned to thinking inside of boundaries. Unfortunately foreigners have provided those boundaries and they sure as hell won't look for solutions outside of them. But who the bloody said we cannot go outside? Us Cypriots?

Bring in the Kurdish plight into the equation! The Kurds' community rights within the Republic of Turkey! It is the missing link.

[Hermes]

I stopped reading when I got to this part...

On the contrary, it keeps talking of avoiding time frames and outside intervention and emphasises the need for a solution to be based on principles and other long out of date mantra's.

Presumably the "principles" he refers to are those of justice and the rule of law. Can anyone tell me when these principles became "out of date"? Because I must have missed something...

[antifon]

They need to, indeed must, be clearly aware - before the referenda take place - what the possible consequences would be if they fail.

Who ever said referenda must take place?
We made that mistake before & τό δίς ἐξαμαρτεῖν οὐκ ἀνδρός σοφοῦ.

[Hermes]

I was happy to go along with the whole article as being "sensible" until I reached the last paragraph (above) where it ONLY points out what problems (punishment) the RoC (GCs) will face once the time frames run out, but nothing was said what problems (punishment) Turkey (TCs) will face also, therefore, with such biased view that ONLY the RoC (GCs) will lose out (punished) if a solution is not found, just what exactly would be the incentives for Turkey (TCs) to even find a solution when they do not stand to lose anything but have everything to gain by running out the clock given to them with "time frames" to find a solution ?

Correct. This article is nothing but a series of threats aimed at the ROC to concede to another Annan Plan scenario or face the consequences. We've been here before. In 2004 it was Cyprus's entry to the EU which led to the UK/Turkish attempt to foist the Annan plan on us. Now it is Cyprus's impending Presidency of the EU which seems to have got the Turks and their friends seriously wound up.

Clearly some people are very concerned about the Republic taking on the EU Presidency as a full member of the EU.

But why should the ROC accept an Annan Plan mark 2? What could actually be worse than that? Certainly all these awful consequences are nothing compared to handing our sovereignty of the north over to Turkey on a plate and accepting legalised partition. What Cyprus needs is Turkey to get out of Cyprus. The sooner the UK, the UN and Turkey understand this, the better.

[Kikapu]

I was happy to go along with the whole article as being "sensible" until I reached the last paragraph (above) where it ONLY points out what problems (punishment) the RoC (GCs) will face once the time frames run out, but nothing was said what problems (punishment) Turkey (TCs) will face also, therefore, with such biased view that ONLY the RoC (GCs) will lose out (punished) if a solution is not found, just what exactly would be the incentives for Turkey (TCs) to even find a solution when they do not stand to lose anything but have everything to gain by running out the clock given to them with "time frames" to find a solution ?

Correct. This article is nothing but a series of threats aimed at the ROC to concede to another Annan Plan scenario or face the consequences. We've been here before. In 2004 it was Cyprus's entry to the EU which led to the UK/Turkish attempt to foist the Annan plan on us. Now it is Cyprus's impending Presidency of the EU which seems to have got the Turks and their friends seriously wound up.

Clearly some people are very concerned about the Republic taking on the EU Presidency as a full member of the EU.

But why should the ROC accept an Annan Plan mark 2? What could actually be worse than that? Certainly all these awful consequences are nothing compared to handing our sovereignty of the north over to Turkey on a plate and accepting legalised partition. What Cyprus needs is Turkey to get out of Cyprus. The sooner the UK, the UN and Turkey understand this, the better.

The whole thing is a joke, specially coming from a former Ambassador to Cyprus from Netherlands, which I may add whose country is a strong supporter of keeping Turkey OUT of the EU. What he should have done was to remind Turkey and the TCs also, that in the event of a no solution, Turkey cannot enter the EU, TCs cannot benefit 100% from the EU, no direct trade, RoC would remain the sole representative of all Cypriots on the International arena, the northern part of Cyprus which is under occupation would still remain under the RoC territory, no recognition for the "trnc", the living standards of the TCs would remain the same, the north would continue to be run by Turkey ands the settlers, the TCs become extinct sooner than later, the Tcs would not benefit from Oil and Gas finds, the GCs are still owners of their properties in the north despite being denied to them by Turkey through occupation. If Max Gevers was interested in Cyprus and Cypriots in finding a solution, he needed to show what each side would lose and gain rather than just the loss on the one side. But then again, perhaps he doesn't want a settlement in Cyprus, which would mean that the RoC would continue to keep Turkey out of the EU, saving Netherlands the trouble of doing it themselves !

[Viewpoint]

At last some time frames...let see what these two will agree until October referendum early 2012 with a solution before June 2012.....The target s a united island to take the presidency of the EU.