Cyprus-Forum.com

[halil]

New inter-communal public opinion poll reveals clashing perspectives, but also opportunities for convergence, over the Security, Territory and Citizenship dossiers of the peace talks; outcome of a future referendum remains in the balance

A recent public opinion poll, conducted in both communities by the Cyprus 2015 initiative, reveals that Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots remain open to a federal settlement but have opposing viewpoints as to how the Security, Territory and Citizenship dossiers should be solved. Despite these differences, limited common ground can be found in each of these three critical dossiers of the peace talks, while there is also strong support in both communities, for the implementation of confidence building measures. Most respondents do not wish to prejudge the outcome and are undecided on how they might vote in a future referendum. However, the negative political climate that predominates in this protracted process is leading to public discontent, which is reflected as a trend for undecided voters in the Greek Cypriot community to shift towards a ‘No’, while Turkish Cypriots are expressing increased ambivalence over what they will vote.

Overall, the findings suggest that the way the peace process interacts with the general public should be urgently re-appraised, in order to avoid the unfortunate outcome of the general public rejecting a solution that is agreed by the leaders. The limited convergences on the substantive dossiers that have been found in this and other polls suggest specific ways to modify the content of the negotiations in order to increase support in both communities simultaneously. CBMs that have been found in this and other polls to have universal appeal could be implemented to increase levels of trust in the peace process and in the other community. Areas in which the general public does not seem to understand or accept the main parameters of the peace talks should be addressed through public information and societal dialogue. These actions require bold and urgent action at the leadership level.

The Security dossier:

Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots disagree over the potential continuation of Turkish guarantees, with Greek Cypriots strongly against and Turkish Cypriots strongly in favor. Despite this specific disagreement, both communities believe that a set of guidelines should be agreed in advance by all the sides, clarifying the appropriate response and responsibility for each implementation-related challenge that may in the future arise. In this context, both communities agree that the European Union could play a role as one of the actors overseeing the implementation, specifically to set motives for implementation and penalties for non-implementation related to EU benefits and participation in EU decision making.

Finally, both communities agree on who should be present if an international conference is held to discuss the security aspect of the Cyprus Problem; namely, the Turkish Cypriots, the Greek Cypriots / Republic of Cyprus, Turkey, Greece, the European Union and the United Nations. Both communities believe that the permanent members of the UN Security Council should not be separately present at such a conference.

The Territory dossier:

The minimum territorial adjustment that Greek Cypriots appear willing to accept is for Varosha and Morphou to be returned under Greek Cypriot administration, with Karpasia becoming a federal area for the use of both communities. Turkish Cypriots, however, appear strongly opposed to any kind of territorial re-adjustment whatsoever: Even the minimum territorial re-adjustment of returning Varosha to Greek Cypriots in the context of a settlement is opposed by a large majority of Turkish Cypriots. The only point of convergence between the two communities on the Territory dossier is that both consider as positive the designation of several federal areas, which will not belong to the Greek Cypriot or Turkish Cypriot constituent state but to the whole of Cyprus, while in these areas there would be no restriction of the right to establish a primary residence.

The Citizenship Dossier:

Greek Cypriots expect that most of those who came from Turkey after 1974, including their descendents, should return to Turkey after a settlement, with the only possible exception being people who have intermarried with Turkish Cypriots and their offspring. Turkish Cypriots, in contrast, believe that people from Turkey who have already lived in Cyprus for many decades with their families should, after a settlement, be allowed to remain. The only point on which the two communities agree in the Citizenship dossier is that many cases of people who came from Turkey, especially in more recent years, could be solved by allowing them to stay after a settlement, but only with a residence permit and work permit – not as citizens with voting rights.

Confidence Building Measures:

Both communities have expressed agreement on several proposed confidence building measures, and especially to the restoration of religious, historical and cultural monuments that are of significance for each community. Both communities also support putting an end to the negative daily statements of political leaders against the other community. Both communities agree that there should be a reduction in bureaucratic formalities when crossing the checkpoints. While packages to address issues related to direct trade, direct flights, Varosha and universities tend to be rejected by one or the other community, the proposal to open Varosha as an inter-communal area under UN and EU auspices, where Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots can live and work together, is considered acceptable by both communities.

Identity of the Poll

The poll was conducted with a sample of 1,000 Greek Cypriots and 1,000 Turkish Cypriots using face to face interviews at the homes of respondents and in their native language. The questionnaire was designed following extensive consultations with policy makers and political parties in both communities. Fieldwork was conducted by Symmetron Market Research in the Greek Cypriot community and Prologue Consulting in the Turkish Cypriot Community, from 17th March to 14th April 2011. The complete poll results, along with reproducible graphs, are available in the presentation which was sent as an attachment to this press release and can also be downloaded online via www.Cyprus2015.org

About Cyprus 2015

The ‘Cyprus 2015’ initiative is being implemented in collaboration with the Geneva-based organisation Intepreace and is supported by the UNDP - Action for Cooperation and Trust (ACT) programme in Cyprus and the European Commission Representation in Cyprus. The purpose of ‘Cyprus 2015’ is to contribute towards a creative and constructive social debate for the long-term sustainable future of Cyprus by helping to bridge the existing gap between the peace process and the general public.

For more information please contact:

Spyros Christou, Cyprus 2015 Project Co-Director, +35799037243, [email protected] This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

Dr. Ahmet Sözen, Cyprus 2015 Project Co-Director, +905338401880, [email protected] This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

[halil]

poll results can be read from below link.....
http://www.cyprus2015.org/index.php?opt ... 34&lang=en

[Pyrpolizer]

Not a very good poll.
There are contradictory results.
There are questions giving 2 alternative options, hence nobody knows for which option people voted.
Also it does not clarify whether those questioned were REAL KIBRISLIS or settlers or an unknown mixture.

Despite of that one can draw some useful conclusions. I was shocked by the fact that the "Kibrislis" (who like I said might include a lot of settlers) are very unwilling to ANY territorial adjustments.

[Kikapu]

The above survey is flawed by having the reported 1000 GCs and 1000 TCs.

1000 GCs represents 0.125% of the GC population

1000 TCs represents 1.0% of the TC population

The difference between the two is almost 1000%, so how can the views from both communities be representative with such a survey. It cannot be.

Then there is the question of how many settlers were in the 1000 "TCs" surveyed masquerading as TCs.

The results of the above survey belongs in the dustbin.

[Sotos]

Turkish Cypriots, however, appear strongly opposed to any kind of territorial re-adjustment whatsoever

There will not be any re-adjustment then. Everything remains as it is. The whole Cyprus belongs to us and TCs are just illegal occupiers of something that does not belong to them.

[Jerry]

The TCs don't want to return any territory to the ROC and yet they always talk of GC intransigence. So what the hell is on offer - just a couple of zones policed by the UN? When they get really pissed off with with the occupier and want to move south they will find there is no room for them - silly sods.

Neither Turkey nor the "trnc" can get it through their thick heads that there can never be a solution (be it Federation, partition or complete "Turkification" of the north) even in 100 years time unless it is agreed by the ROC that would involve a significant return of territory.

[jahitty]

i also have to question the validity of this survey, surely with such a big population difference between the two communities how can you gauge a representative response.How were the 'kibrislis' chosen? I must also question the timing of the publication,why now? Are you telling me that its taken nearly 50 years to design and implement a poll of this quality? Or is it a propanda stunt to ultimately end the talks?

[Pyrpolizer]

i also have to question the validity of this survey, surely with such a big population difference between the two communities how can you gauge a representative response.How were the 'kibrislis' chosen? I must also question the timing of the publication,why now? Are you telling me that its taken nearly 50 years to design and implement a poll of this quality? Or is it a propanda stunt to ultimately end the talks?

No my friend it's not a propaganda or anything. If you notice it's an independent organization run my one Kibrisli and one Kypreos FUNDED from some EU funds.
Simply the 2 guys managed to make some money out of EU.
But their survey is silly.

[B25]

I would have said pathetic or full of crap.

These guys are just milking the system. Good for them since the EU is totally corrupt anyway.

Just ask the commissioners.

[Jerry]

i also have to question the validity of this survey, surely with such a big population difference between the two communities how can you gauge a representative response.How were the 'kibrislis' chosen? I must also question the timing of the publication,why now? Are you telling me that its taken nearly 50 years to design and implement a poll of this quality? Or is it a propanda stunt to ultimately end the talks?

The respective population size makes little difference, the larger the sample (in proportion to population) the more accurate it's likely to be, so the TC one is probably a bit more "accurate". What is more important is how the samples were selected. Asking 1000 Gcs leaving a football match and 1000TCs in a village would obviously not give a valid result. Surveys like this can easily be "bent" by asking loaded questions in order to achieve the desired result.