Charlie Charalambous
guardian.co.uk, Friday 22 July 2011 17.45 BST
While the European Union focused its attention on saving Greece from defaulting on its huge debt and preventing contagion, another eurozone country in the south-eastern Mediterranean has been struggling to keep its finances from spiralling out of control.
Cyprus hit the international headlines on 11 July when confiscated Iranian munitions exploded at a navy base killing 13 – six firefighters and seven armed services personnel – making it the worse peacetime military disaster on the holiday island.
What has compounded the anger of Cypriots is that 98 containers with explosives material were inexplicably kept in the scorching heat close to the island's biggest power plant at Vasilikos.
The plant – providing more than 50% of the national grid's total electricity supply – was destroyed by the blast, triggering rolling power cuts.
Although the government has not issued any hard figures about the knock-on effect to the economy many economists – like former Cyprus finance minister Michalis Sarris – believe at best the island can expect zero growth this year.
The government had projected 1.5% GDP growth in 2011, up from 1% last year following an unprecedented recession in 2009, when the economy shrank for the first time in decades.
Now the explosion-damaged economy is being compared to the aftermath of the 1974 Turkish invasion.
The cost of rebuilding the power plant alone is around €1bn and it will need a strategic investor to help rebuild it, while the energy sector will take several years to recover.
With estimated costs to the economy ranging from €2bn to €3bn the government has been urged to take drastic austerity measures to close a deficit almost twice the EU-recommended ceiling of 3%.
Cyprus central bank governor Athanasios Orphanides has warned the political leadership, including President Demetris Christofias; it must instigate immediate cost-cutting measures if it is to avoid going cap in hand to the EU for a bailout.
This would have been unthinkable not so long ago, as prior to the global financial crisis the island enjoyed yearly GDP growth figures of 4% and upwards boosted by tourism and a construction boom.
To compound matters, the island has received several credit rating downgrades due to the exposure of its banks to toxic Greek debt.
Compared with other eurozone crisis countries, the island's 5.1% budget deficit and around 60% public debt doesn't seem so bad but financial markets are worried that Cyprus is too closely linked to Greek debt.
Cyprus's €17.4bn economy may only be 0.2% of the eurozone's but financial instability could compromise a UN-backed peace effort to reunify the divided island.
And without progress on the Cyprus issue, Turkey's own EU accession is being hampered.
Ankara has warned Brussels that if a divided Cyprus is allowed to take on the EU presidency as scheduled in July 2012 then its relationship with the European Union will "freeze".
So if Europe is not careful it will not only have another eurozone member needing financial rescue but have a partner in political turmoil while trying to run the presidency.
And the jury is still out on whether the current government led by communist-backed Christofias will be able to steady the ship as thousands protest daily calling for his resignation over the blast disaster.
The administration is facing growing public fury over the perceived incompetence that led to the deaths and accusations from the opposition that it has let the economy slide into free-fall because of its reluctance to make unpopular choices.
Party leaders met the president on Friday to discuss tough austerity measures, although the government said decisions were taken but it did not say what they were.
It has been told by the EU and IMF to reduce a bloated state payroll, increase the retirement age, slim down social benefits and scrap the automatically adjusted cost of living allowance for civil servants.
There is no consensus on these issues in a country that is highly unionised with the better-paid public sector willing to make some concessions, but not the sacrifices, that will help turn the economy around.
Cyprus can expect to go through political, social and economic changes that were not on the agenda prior to the 11 July disaster.
It will need firm leadership at home to navigate the storm and support from Europe to help Cyprus rebuild.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... isis-point