Cyprus-Forum.com

[CBBB]

By ŞAHİN ALPAY

I was in Brussels when the news broke that prosecutor Zekeriya Öz who, for the first time ever in Turkish history dared to start judicial investigations into alleged military coup plans, was taken away from his job by promotion to a higher position.


European parliamentarians, officials and specialists whom I had a chance to talk to were, of course, not in a position to comment on the news. Neither was I. Was the probe into the Ergenekon criminal network being brought to an end, or was it to continue with equal “rigor” as President Abdullah Gül said it would? I do not know.

It was clear, however, that the Ergenekon probe had confused the minds of those who follow Turkish affairs. This seemed to be partly due to the lobby which argues that the case is a fabrication which is used to silence opposition to the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, but also partly due to concerns about the mismanagement of the judicial process as expressed in the recent Regular Report on Turkey by the European Commission.

What is happening in Turkey continues to be of interest in Brussels. I was invited by the Friends of Turkey group in the European Parliament to participate in a panel on “Breaking stereotypes and building bridges between Turkey and the EU” that was held on March 30. (Earlier during the day, a group not so friendly towards Turkey had also organized a meeting.) The panel discussion I attended was moderated by conservative parliamentarian from Sweden Anna Maria Corazza Bildt, a staunch friend of Turkey, and the opening remarks were made by Andrew Duff, a liberal from England. Duff somewhat astonished me by saying that Turkey was currently the stage for a struggle between “Kemalism and political Islam” and that it was surely getting more prosperous, but “the jury was out,” however, on “whether it would also become more liberal, democratic, secular and European.” In my presentation, following Duff, I expressed my views that Turkey under the current government is not only becoming more prosperous but, despite considerable domestic resistance, is also making progress towards consolidating democracy on EU norms. I added that if the EU had not been divided over the issue and continued to support Turkey’s accession, the country might have moved much further in fulfilling the Copenhagen criteria. During my two-day stay in Brussels I had a chance to meet a number of European Parliament members (MEPs), among them German liberal Alexander Graf Lambsdorff. His view was that Turkey and the EU share a common fate but that currently a sense of frustration prevails on both sides. The frustration on the European side is perhaps best reflected in the findings of the recent “Transatlantic Trends” survey of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). According to the survey, only 22 percent of the European public (as against 51 percent of leaders) is supportive of Turkey’s accession. Interestingly, while the majority of European leaders do not see it as likely that Turkey one day will join the EU, a majority among the public thinks otherwise. This finding seems to indicate the fact that if leaders had made up their minds to support Turkey’s accession, the public would follow.The GMF survey shows that the most positive about Turkey among Europeans are top-level officials of the European Council and Commission, with not less than 64 percent supportive of Turkish accession. A recent report titled “European Foreign Policy Scorecard 2010” by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) seems to indicate a prevailing supportive attitude towards Turkey also among researchers and experts in EU member states. In an assessment by 40 researchers from 27 member states, the issue that was found to be most divisive in the EU and led to the worst performance was bilateral relations with Turkey. A summary of the report concluded that “the EU, preoccupied by its financial troubles, has ignored its neighborhood. That has led to sour relations with Ankara. Itself invigorated by its own economic good health and frustrated by the stalled enlargement process. This estrangement is bad for Turkey and especially bad for Europe.”

English liberal MEP Graham Watson, who is most supportive of Turkish accession, believes the current estrangement between the EU and Turkey may be temporary. He blames it mostly on the economic crisis in Europe, the efforts of the Greek Cypriot lobby in Brussels and populist European politicians who ride on the cocktails of the negative attitudes among the public towards Turkish accession. He expects the European economies to improve, Nicolas Sarkozy to lose the presidential election in France next year and an entirely different environment in relations with Turkey to prevail by 2016. I agree with him. And I strongly hope that the Turkish government after the coming elections in June fulfills its commitments to the EU and extends the customs union agreement to Greek Cyprus, so that the accession negotiations are reinvigorated with the ball being in the EU court.

http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-24 ... he-eu.html

Discuss.

[CBBB]

Sunday, April 3, 2011
BARÇIN YİNANÇ
ISTANBUL/BRUSSELS - Hürriyet Daily News

Turkey’s EU accession siesta may become permanent if action is not taken soon, experts say. Senior officials and observers decry the current stalemate in opening additional chapters and suggest Turkey open its ports to Cyprus to allow several blocked chapters to be opened, while noting Turkey’s focus on freer visa requirements

While Turkey’s accession talks near a dead-end, many believe the siesta defining the current state of Turkey’s negotiations will be a prolonged one, unless “something dramatic” takes place.

“There is a ‘siesta’ in Turkish – EU relations. Nothing is moving. Nothing is happening,” Amanda Paul, from the European Policy Center, said last week.

A candidate country needs to conclude negotiations on 33 policy areas, or so-called chapters, to become a member to the 27-nation bloc. In total, 13 out of 33 negotiation chapters have been opened since Turkey’s EU accession negotiations began on October 2005. There are only three chapters remaining which are not politically blocked. Talks on the rest of the chapters are suspended due to French objections as well as the Cyprus problem.

The situation will technically reach a dead end soon, once the three remaining chapters are opened. Croatia, which started negotiations at the same time as Turkey, has started talks on many chapters, with less than 10 chapters left unclosed.

“No one has an answer to what will happen when we reach that dead end,” said Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, a member of European Parliament.

Part of the problem though comes from the fact that the prospect of a dead end does not ring alarm bells, neither in Ankara nor in European capitals, observe experts who have been monitoring Turkey-EU relations for a long time.

“Turkey is not a priority for the EU. There is enlargement fatigue, as well as Turkey fatigue,” is a view echoed by many Turkish journalists working in Brussels.

“The process has entered into a stalemate where each side keeps repeating its arguments. What is worse, the current situation is creating a perception in the public opinion that both sides are happy about it and want it to continue like that,” said Haluk Nuray, the Brussels representative of the Economic Development Foundation, or IKV.

The fact that there have been ups and downs in the relations in the past and that each downward trend was followed by a new momentum in relations creates the false impression that a similar pattern will follow suit, argued Ilıcak, who has been in this job for nearly two decades.

“This time the situation is different. In the previous downward trends, there was a ‘next step,’ that would gain time to decision makers giving hope for the continuation of the process. Yet there is no longer a ‘mid-target, a ‘next step,’ that can keep the public focus to the end target. It is clear that the current negotiation process does not have the structure and energy to bring Turkey to the door of membership,” he said.

Turkey needs to endorse a different approach, suggested Nuray, one that is result-oriented and one that will force the EU to act. “No one would like to come to the point of a break up in relations. But if necessary steps are not taken, then conditions can lead to undesired outcomes,” he warned.

“We need crisis diplomacy,” said a Foreign Ministry official. “The EU can only go forward under crisis,” he said.

But this view is not shared by all in the ministry. “Prompting a crisis will give the necessary alibi to those who are opposing Turkey’s membership,” said another Turkish diplomat. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel favors a privileged membership while French President Nicolas Sarkozy is openly lobbying against Turkey’s entry, suggesting Turkey should be a member of the Union for the Mediterranean, an organization that was initiated by France.

Turkey has been working to secure a visa facilitation agreement with the EU that can revive public enthusiasm for the membership bid. The government is ready to sign the readmission agreement, a document regulating the treatment of illegal migrants crossing Europe via Turkey, a condition requested by the EU for visa facilitation. But as Turkey’s history with the EU is one of undelivered promises, the government does not want to sign it before securing a guarantee from the EU that it will go ahead with visa facilitation after the signature of the agreement. The European Commission, Turkey’s interlocutor in this issue, is unable to give this guarantee, since the issue is sensitive as anti-immigration and xenophobic trends remain high among the European public.

Many in Brussels believe that Turkey can unlock the stalemate by letting Greek Cypriot planes and vessels use Turkish ports. Talks on eight chapters are suspended since Turkey is seen not fulfilling its obligation towards a member country, Greek Cyprus.

Turkey will put the ball back in Europe’s court if it just implements the additional protocol. That will open Turkish ports to shipping from Greek Cyprus, said Lambsdorff. The AKP remain unwilling to do so, arguing the EU has not delivered on its promise to ease the embargo towards Turkish Cyprus.

While it is almost unimaginable for the government to make a radical move and implement the additional protocol before the election, it might continue its stance even after the elections, letting the siesta on the accession process continue.

But Turkey’s integration to EU is not limited to opening and closing chapters, argued a Turkish academic. In addition to horizontal integration, that takes place at the political level, there is also vertical integration that takes place at the grass roots, on the civil society levels, said Korel Göymen from Sabancı University. In the vertical integration Turkey has come a long way and therefore civil society dialogue needs to be continued to be enhanced, independent of political deadlock.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php? ... 2011-04-01

Something is going on!