Cyprus-Forum.com

[PEACE]

The NO vote can no be interpreted as a No to solution .

I know my friend.I never said that your answer means no to solution.

As you know there were 4 vesrions of the UN plan that have been changed to arrive at the 5th version . This was obvioulsy a factor that influenced the voters.

Why this period effected voters? They found newer ones worse?

Also there has been a changed in the leadership this is another factor!

I think its not an extra factor but this is the main reason!

People have been let to believe that after EU membership propsects for a more viable solution were greater in the future and so how to rush to sigh any solution now .

Exactly! I can feel it.Majority thought that after they enter to EU,EU and other countries will force Turkey to live the island may be! So may be the no vote's owners dreamed that we can found a solution that their side will gain many things while giving so little compensation to TCs.

And of course on the other side we had all those nationalist GCs taking every opportunity to affect the public opinion!

Yes! I observed that many lies and gossips are seperated between Gcs like they did to us!

[Bananiot]

I think the reasons sited by Michalis are quite valid. The GC "no" vote however, encloses an inner mesage as well. The message decoded, roughly says "we do not want to marry you, we prefer to live by ourselves in the south, rather than have you meddling in our affairs, even if we never set foot in our lost places".

Why, may you ask? Is it because the A plan is that bad? It has nothing to do with that. Simply we do not want to share power. We do not want to introduce a partner in our business.

How did the rejectionists of peace manage to get such phenomenal support? Simply by waving frantically the "dirty turks" banner. It scared the s**t out of the miserable middle order voter for the glory of the Limassolian and Paphian hoteliers who are likely to hold on to their clientele for a bit longer. Oh yes, the fanancial factor is very important and these hoteliers were super patriotic during the period that led to the referendum. The church also played its role. The Paphian saint (the silly hierarchs call themselves saints, would you believe) promised the refugees money in order to vote no and of course, the President promised a better, european solution! All that remains now is for them to deliver ...

[michalis5354]

And at the end of the day they are all these rejectionist who make the solution hard to be found.

[Bananiot]

I would like to make a prediction and of course I welcome your constructive critisism and ideas.

In the question placed infront of us at the referendum we had to chose between a solution and a continuation of the stalemate. No other options were available. The results are well known as well as the arguments that followed the referendum. There is no sense to dwell on these. The question that begs an answer is what are we doing now.

It is therefore very interesting to hear the reaction of all the forum users on this matter. I make a start with my contribution.

I firmly believe that Ankara will get a date in December. As a result, Turkey will become a full member of EU within 10-15 years. This means that during this period Turkey will not be pushing for a solution to the Cuprob as it did prior to our accession. There is no need for this. Turkey does not have to prove anything now. Erdogan will quite rightly say that Turkey has done its part and nobody will be foolish to question this. Thus the stalemate will continue for another 10-15 years.

At the end of this period northern Cyprus will be unrecognisable. The international community will have lifted the isolation years before and the goose that lays the golden eggs will find its way north, where the beaches are unspoiled and people have not yet become arrogant to charge the tourist 1 pound for a small bottle of water.

When Turkey is on the verge of accession, we will probably get another chance for a final solution, however, the A plan would look like an oasis next to the new ideas that will be put forward. At best, what we could get is confederation which basically recognises the existance of 2 states joint losely by a central government of cosmetic value. Therefore, the 2 communities will be separated for ever, a dream come true by the nationalists of both sides.

I believe Papadopoulos knows this very well and consciously is striving towards this end. This has been his idea of a solution throughout his political life that now spans over 44 years. Of course he and his supporter may say that he is looking for a better, viable solution, but this is easy to say. How can it be achieved, nobody has explained to us. On the other hand, many, speaking off record, admit that it is better if the 2 communities stay separated.

My only hope for a reversal of the above nightmare senario is for the TC community to maintain its belief on the need for a unifying solution and that Papadopoulos and his party will become history as soon as the GC community understood the bad hand they were dealt by the extremists that now surround Papadopoulos like vultures.

[insan]

I firmly believe that Ankara will get a date in December. As a result, Turkey will become a full member of EU within 10-15 years. This means that during this period Turkey will not be pushing for a solution to the Cuprob as it did prior to our accession. There is no need for this. Turkey does not have to prove anything now. Erdogan will quite rightly say that Turkey has done its part and nobody will be foolish to question this.

I have the same opinion with you....

Thus the stalemate will continue for another 10-15 years.

In my opinion Turkey will become more flexible to solve the Cyprus problem. She will follow a deliberate, step by step policy to cooperate with the GC and Greek side, in order to find out a just, safe, viable, stable solution which also would serve her interests in the region... Apparently GC leadership also support a step-by-step policy rather than an immediate comprehensive solution ... I believe there are so much things to be done which would ease the pain of whole Cypriots not only TCs... but if at the very beginning, some strong interest conflicts arise amongst the relevant parties and wthin the different interest groups of two communities be sure of that a new, fruitless, tense process would be initiated amongst all relevant parties...

At the end of this period northern Cyprus will be unrecognisable.
The international community will have lifted the isolation years before and the goose that lays the golden eggs will find its way north, where the beaches are unspoiled

I agree...

and people have not yet become arrogant to charge the tourist 1 pound for a small bottle of water.

I have strong doubts about it...

When Turkey is on the verge of accession, we will probably get another chance for a final solution, however, the A plan would look like an oasis next to the new ideas that will be put forward.

I agree...

At best, what we could get is confederation which basically recognises the existance of 2 states joint losely by a central government of cosmetic value. Therefore, the 2 communities will be separated for ever, a dream come true by the nationalists of both sides.

It also depends on to the socio-political relations of some bi-communal civil initiatives... They made a good move with their current common declaration regarding nationalistic aspects of our recent history.

I still have doubts regarding the socio-politic relations of two communities. If it becomes stronger and more effective, would be one of the dominant determinining factor of the upcoming new process...

I believe Papadopoulos knows this very well and consciously is striving towards this end. This has been his idea of a solution throughout his political life that now spans over 44 years. Of course he and his supporter may say that he is looking for a better, viable solution, but this is easy to say. How can it be achieved, nobody has explained to us. On the other hand, many, speaking off record, admit that it is better if the 2 communities stay separated.

Papadopulos, as a man from Makarios tradition; still stubbornly follows his masters voice. In my opinion there's nothing to be surprised concerning his policies towards a solution... Once AKEL had backed Makarios as a lesser of evils and now backing Papadopulos because of the same reasons...

My only hope for a reversal of the above nightmare senario is for the TC community to maintain its belief on the need for a unifying solution and that Papadopoulos and his party will become history as soon as the GC community understood the bad hand they were dealt by the extremists that now surround Papadopoulos like vultures.

TC community? Forget about the right-winger, so-called nationalists which are around %30 with their settler crew...

And forget about the self-seeker, partisan TCs which according to my observations and investigations are around another %30 and can bee found the supporter of any political party which serves their own interests and not reliable at all...

The ones I trust are the civil initiatives who recently published a bi-communal declaration regarding the nationalist aspects of the problem... If more civil initiatives, instutitions, establishments, componies and individuals give support to them; noone can stop us to reach our goal of safe, just, viable, stable unified Cyprus which also would serve the Cypriots interests rather than others...[/quote]

[Piratis]

The reason that the Annan plan was rejected is very simple: It would create something worst than what we have now.
It would be partition, and we would pay to have it.
It is like they wanted to fuck us, and they expected us not only to bent to fuck us easier but to also pay on top of it.

In 15 years many things can change. By that time the superpower might be China and the world very different than we know it today. Nobody can predict what will happen.

At best, what we could get is confederation which basically recognises the existance of 2 states joint losely by a central government of cosmetic value.

What you said in the above quote fits perfectly the Annan plan.

Do you truly argue that the Annan plan is not a confederation? It is, a very loose one actually.
In the foundation agreement it says that is based on what they have in Switzerland, which is confederation (http://www.admin.ch/). And if you look in the constitution of Switzerland, the central government is stronger there than what is proposed in A plan.
Of course, no need to say that in Switzerland they do not have foreign judges, or rights of other countries to intervene etc.

In Cyprus we never agreed for confederation, and such thing will never happen.

[michalis5354]

I also believe that Turkey will get a date for joining the EU this December. And the time to become a full member will be much shorter than expected. The Erdogan government have achieved a lot as regards to many changes required . And it deserve!

The question is how the policies on cyprus issue will be determined after such a date given to Turkey? I predict that will become more flexible after all when Turkey joins the EU then some of Turkey concerns regarding the TC society will be diminished. On the other hand I do not expect of course to arrive at the extreme issues I mean abandon every agreement made in the past.

So Turkey becoming a Full european member will bring positive changes. Of course no one can say for 100% certainty what will happen as Erdogan is not alone in establishing a Cyprus policy. and especially without taking into consideration the After Erdogan government !

What we are doing now? Establishing chanells of communication between both sides will be a good thing after all this will assist any future solution and to understand more the perceptions in other community. Some Official policies do not encourage this and they base on legalistic issues!This is not right since it does not help to understand the perceptions of the other side which is impoprtant in any future settlement

[MicAtCyp]

Why this period effected voters? They found newer ones worse?

No they started getting informed about the plan and understanding it. And yes the more they understood it the worse it was becoming.There was not a single person prior to the referendum who had not scrutinined on an issue of his specific concern.
I know my friend Bananiot will again disagree with me but I insist the major issue of concern was the property issue.

[Piratis]

I insist the major issue of concern was the property issue.

Why? Probably this is the major issue among refugees, but there are several other major reasons. If we would have to say which one is the "majorest" issue I believe this would be security. People didn't feel that the Annan plan provided enough security in many areas. The Turkish troops would remain and Turkey would have the right to intervene, most settlers would stay, the financial situation of the average people would worsen (at least in the beginning), functionality was not good enough, things like the veto power of TCs could create severe problems and everything could collapse.

People didn't feel secure enough.

According to the Maslow pyramid of needs, ( http://www.ship.edu/~cgboeree/maslow.html ) security is one of the most basic needs for people.

Of course the Annan plan had many other major issues, but as you can see from the pyramid things like freedom and independence (part of the "esteem needs") are "less" important and thats why I put security first.

[michalis5354]

The plan was very thouhgtful and provided many solutions to many areas, the explanation and interpretation that this has been given was totally wrong!

Yes security is an issue for both TCs and GCs . The number of turksih troops remained were only 650 soldiers and the Greek troops 900 as I remember. Therefore the balance of power was not affected and therefore security was not afected.

Rights of intervention of Turkey are not something new. This existed in aggreement in 1960. There are treaties and aggreements.

Property issue were dealt upon compensation and a significant number of refugees were to return to their original properties.

No One said that short term problems would not exist but any solution will address such problems.