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Kiks...you might be onto something...

How can we solve it? (keep it civilized)

Kiks...you might be onto something...

Postby boomerang » Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:12 am

Turkish Cypriots: between the devil and the deep blue sea

As many other people, I was disappointed by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s reaction to a protest staged by Turkish Cypriots on Jan. 28. Erdoğan’s belittling and threatening statement accusing Turkish Cypriots of insulting Turkey and its government and urging the Turkish Cypriot authorities to track down those responsible, in particular those who had held banners criticizing Turkey’s intervention in their affairs, was shocking.

Erdoğan, whose words were backed up by at least two of his ministers, was furious that Turkish Cypriots dared to criticize Ankara. While Erdoğan’s reaction was condemned by opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and viewed rather negatively by many in the international community, many Turks seemed to support the prime minister.

Erdoğan’s comments have left even the most Justice and Development Party (AK Party)-friendly Turkish Cypriots feeling angry. It is therefore not surprising that the headline “Who do you think you are?” appeared in a number of newspapers. Turkish Cypriot leader Derviş Eroğlu responded to Erdoğan’s complaints by issuing a statement calling on people to be responsible in their protests and saying that demonstrations targeting Turkey and its government cannot be accepted. For Turkish Cypriots, who are not used to having restrictions placed on their democracy and freedoms, these apparent efforts to narrow and muzzle their sphere of democracy has been a real eye-opener. A second, and apparently much larger protest, is to be staged on March 2. It seems Tahir Square is being followed by İnönü Square. With tensions rising, if no precautionary measures are taken, it risks turning into an ugly battle between Turkish Cypriots and mainland Turks.

Northern Cyprus is not (yet) a colony of Turkey, although Ankara seems to have been trying to transform the Turkish Cypriot culture for years. There seems to be a presumption among ordinary Turks that Turkish Cypriots are happy with Turkey’s role on the island, being increasingly viewed as the 82nd province of Turkey, and that they should be eternally grateful for having such a kind and generous big brother guarding them. Jan. 28 has shaken this perception. In all the years I have been following Cyprus I don’t ever remember Turkish Cypriots publically expressing their unhappiness about Turkey’s role in their affairs, let alone waving a Republic of Cyprus flag, until now. Some may have grumbled behind closed doors, but not publically. After all, with Ankara signing a nice big check every year to keep the north financially buoyant, this seemed to dictate that Turkish Cypriots should keep tight-lipped over Turkey’s increasing footprint in the north.

An increasing number of Turkish Cypriots seem to be getting fed up. Now a minority in the north thanks to the massive number of Turkish settlers (the precise number is seemingly unknown), they feel like foreigners in their own country. They are sick of being isolated, having to cow-tow to Ankara, being let down by the international community and by many Greek Cypriots (but certainly not all) treating them like second-class citizens.

The only way out is to reach a peace deal with the Greek Cypriots to reunify the island. Negotiations have been going on since 2008, and no one is over-optimistic. While the Turkish Cypriot side feels confident that a provisional agreement could be reached in the next couple of months -- indeed, they submitted such a roadmap to the UN secretary-general in Geneva in January -- the Greek Cypriots remain opposed to strict deadlines and timeframes. They seem happy to go on negotiating forever unless someone, somewhere starts to put some pressure on.

However, if by December 2011 there is no deal, it seems likely the talks will collapse and there may not be another opportunity for some time, if ever, with time working against Cyprus. What will happen to Turkish Cypriots then, given that international recognition seems highly unlikely? Turkey may convince a few “friends” to recognize it, but in real terms this will not much change the lives of ordinary Turkish Cypriots. Or Turkey may just move to “absorb” the north. With EU talks on the rocks, it would seem Turkey has little incentive to do otherwise. Indeed, the recent replacement of the Turkish ambassador by a non-diplomat could be a milestone on the road to de jure annexation.

Of course there could be another explanation for the recent events. You could conclude that Erdoğan’s over-the-top reaction was deliberate. He is beginning to the pave the road for a Cyprus deal by trying to create a division between mainland Turks and Turkish Cypriots in order to save face when Turkey accepts a compromised Cyprus solution.

However, if this is not the case, I would advise the Greek Cypriots to perhaps accelerate their efforts because if it is Turkey’s intention to make northern Cyprus their 82nd province, it will not only affect the lives of Turkish Cypriots but also Greek Cypriots in a whole range of ways: illegal migration, security, investment and probably put the brakes on their hoped for oil/gas exploration, too

http://www.sundayszaman.com/sunday/columnistDetail_getNewsById.action?newsId=235711

you might have hit the nail on the head with this... :wink:

i was also thinking as to what merkel said...why would she be so public with her critisism?...and why would she do that?...and now?...where is the gain pissing turkey off?...probably pre-planned?...
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Postby B25 » Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:25 am

" .... but also Greek Cypriots in a whole range of ways: illegal migration, security, investment and probably put the brakes on their hoped for oil/gas exploration, too "

Just more scaremongering from the Turkish side. Annexation is not an easy process if indeed they can even achieve it.

Worst case, it remains unrecognised, the TCs would be no more, the EU frontex (or whatever they call them) will need to be stationed here and their claim of any gas/oil would be non existant.

I worry not, at least this way we haven't signed it over and in the future who knows.

Just Turkeys games again!
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Postby Kikapu » Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:37 am

Hi Boomer,

Thanks for the article.

Being a "lateral thinker", one can often see beyond the surface. Thinking outside the box can be very useful when one detaches themselves emotionally from the subject at hand. This often creates name callings, mostly by those with only a One Dimensional views and the "Earth Flat People".! :lol:
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Postby Get Real! » Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:49 am

I find this author’s theories foolhardy for the following reasons…

1. Erdogan, is not clever enough to manufacture complex situations from which to benefit… you give the fool too much credit!

2. The notion that Turkey will save face by withdrawing her troops, as a result of a self-created wedge in the occupied territory makes no sense whatsoever! If anything Turkey would remain and quash any such conflict against mainlanders because given such a choice Turkey would side with mainlanders not TCs! (I hope TCs do not have any such illusions that they are favorable to mainlanders!)

3. The notion that it is Turkey’s intention to make the occupied territory her “82nd province” is TOTAL rubbish as no such international procedure exists to facilitate such a move (and I have provided international law pertaining to that elsewhere) and not to mention UN Resolution 541 (1983) which already squashes any such silly moves.

Basically, I find that those who attempt to predict political scenarios without taking into consideration what is DOABLE via international law fall short as in the case of this author.


What I predict will happen...

1. Once Turkey’s accession process officially terminates (end of this year), the EU will change 180° in the way they treat Turkey. (The EU is obliged to do so by their own law)

2. Turkey will commence withdrawing from Cyprus towards the end of 2011 in return for a favorable EU partnership which she will use to save face. The EU will allow a few extra privileges for her to get rid of her from EU territory peacefully, and any ifs or butts from Turkey will be met with the threat of EU sanctions, although I expect all such talks behind closed doors.

3. Turkey will FULLY comply as she knows very well what the EU can inflict on her (around 50% of her economy) and has no choice whatsoever.

4. Turkey’s failure to secure a place in the EU and subsequent global relegation will be Erdogan’s downfall as he will face the wrath of millions of angry Turks who wanted progress.


There you go! It's in black & white right here on the forum for all to come back to in 2012 if they wish. :wink:
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Postby humanist » Wed Feb 16, 2011 1:59 pm

Whether the occupied area is annexed to Turkey or not Cyprus will not cease gas exploration. The gas fields are well and truly in the southern part of the Island's waters and Turkey has no right to it. Even under annexation.

Secondly The EU will not allow any form of partition of the island based on its interests and that of its territory, Cyprus being an important and soon to be wealthy territory. Angela Merkel is being powerful and straight forward and I think she needs to be. We cannot open the door to any Country that illegally occupies part of another members State's territory of which Cyprus in one.

The other dilemma is that Cyprus as a whole Island is an EU member State. For this reason there cannot be any solution of the CyProb which separates the island so a United Federation is inevitable. One sovereignty, one international identity one people.

The "trnc" has the option of being absorbed by Turkey and loose their identity and that's fine but they also loose the chance of become European because Turkey will not get into the EU without a just solution to the Cyprob. Or the TC community will come to the party with practical solutions, under a BBF (Quebec - Canada _ bizonality).
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Postby Get Real! » Wed Feb 16, 2011 3:46 pm

And Erdogan continues doing what he does best…

Turkey: Israel must apologize for flotilla raid regardless of UN findings

Turkish official says Ankara believes UN report will be unbiased, but remains firm in its demand that Israel make amends for raid that killed nine pro-Palestinian activists.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-d ... s-1.343606

…leading Turkey to obscurity! :lol:
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Postby ZoC » Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:32 pm

Get Real! wrote:And Erdogan continues doing what he does best…

Turkey: Israel must apologize for flotilla raid regardless of UN findings

Turkish official says Ankara believes UN report will be unbiased, but remains firm in its demand that Israel make amends for raid that killed nine pro-Palestinian activists.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-d ... s-1.343606

…leading Turkey to obscurity! :lol:


if israel MUST apologise, what MUST turkey do when israel doesn't, which it won't?
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Postby humanist » Wed Feb 16, 2011 10:41 pm

I wonder if Turkey apologises to the Cypriot people about their invasion and the injustice it has brought upon them since its invasion of 74.
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Postby DT. » Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:07 pm

ZoC wrote:
Get Real! wrote:And Erdogan continues doing what he does best…

Turkey: Israel must apologize for flotilla raid regardless of UN findings

Turkish official says Ankara believes UN report will be unbiased, but remains firm in its demand that Israel make amends for raid that killed nine pro-Palestinian activists.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-d ... s-1.343606

…leading Turkey to obscurity! :lol:


if israel MUST apologise, what MUST turkey do when israel doesn't, which it won't?


Sulk and call them names.
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Postby Bananiot » Wed Feb 16, 2011 11:42 pm

Is that Zenon Zoc?
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