According to this the talks next week are doomed and so is Turkey's EU bid
The European Union and Turkey are about to make a huge mistake. Next week, in Geneva, probably the last meeting of Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders will take place, aimed at reconciling their many differences. There will be no breakthrough. Guilty by dissociation, neither the EU nor Turkey will be in Geneva. Greek Cypriot elections in May and Turkish elections in June are unlikely to improve prospects for a settlement. With the end of hopes for a deal on Cyprus goes Turkey’s prospects of joining the EU.
When it comes to Cyprus, almost all Turks are dutiful Kemalists. Even many AKP members, possibly a majority, subscribe to the view that if there has to be a choice between Cyprus and the EU, they choose Cyprus. This dogmatic attitude is compounded in the prime minister’s case by his personal bitterness at the futility of the risk he took in 2004 in supporting the Annan Plan (accepted in north Cyprus but rejected in the south).
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So nobody really gains if Turkey’s future EU membership is sacrificed for the sake of its historic ties with Cyprus. Mr Erdogan maybe has one last chance to swallow his pride and call the bluff of the Greek Cypriots by doing a deal on the island. In doing so he would save his country a lot of money, galvanise its trade, improve its security and, most importantly, resurrect its chances of eventually joining the European Union. Dare he miss that opportunity?
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c7bf6898-2480 ... z1BavBALti