Cyprus-Forum.com

[observer]

The chances of Turkey joining the EU become ever more remote with the passage of time, and little to do with Cyprus or Islam, but lots to do with good old fashioned politics. Seats in the EU parliament are now decided by population. If Turkey joined the EU it would have the second biggest number of seats after Germany. Many of the politicians whose powers would be weakened realize this and find Cyprus and Islam a convenient excuse.

Economically, although Turkey is currently at a lower base that most EU countries, it is advancing at a faster rate than the EU, and has a sounder financial footing than many of the basket-case EU economies. Turkey is also better placed demographically than most EU countries, with a greater proportion of young/old people. Turkish people are realizing this also, so the wish to join the EU is growing weaker in Turkey too.

No view is held universally – this one especially so, so you will find politicians in the EU and Turkey strongly in favour of Turkey joining the EU, but I believe the drift away from union is stronger. It would be interesting to know how many people in how many EU countries would vote to leave the EU today if it was practical to do so.

As for Cyprus sending ‘a tough message to Turkey’

really?...i and a whole lot of others beg to differ with your analysis...i think you listen to bagis the goofball for too long and clouded your mind...

if turkey is doing so well how come your motherland ain't looking after you...someone would think some of this money would have found its way at the end of the que...they are throwing money at everybody it seems except at you...

http://www.cyprus-forum.com/viewtopic.php?p=647493#647493

Did I not say that no view is held universally - especially this one.

I am unclear as to what part of my analysis you disagree with. Do you think that the politicians of the 26 EU states with populations smaller than Turkey would welcome being outnumbered new MEPs, or that the necessary reshuffling of commissioner's jobs and EU staff would be welcomed by those now there?

I can't believe that too many politicians outside Cyprus place Cyprus' well-being above their own self-interest and that of their country.

Nor can I see what is wrong with what I said about Turkey's financial position. It's just plain fact.

[Piratis]

Observer, Turkey is not a developed country, it is a developing country, so it can not be compared with countries which already have standards of living many times higher than Turkey.

If EU wants to expand further there are many other European countries that could join first. Turkey is not European.

About demographics, the EU can let in as many immigrants as needed. Why would they let Turks as equal EU citizens when they can have them, and many others, as immigrants who don't even get to vote, let alone have any MEPs or any other power in EU?

If you think that the Turks have the upper hand in this you are greatly mistaken. The only reason most Europeans don't throw out the application of Turkey is that the USA wants Turkey in EU to ensure that Turkey will not turn into another Iraq or Iran. Unfortunately for the Americans it seems that their efforts will not be successful and that Turkey will turn into another Iran soon, so I am sure they are already preparing plan B for Turkey.

[DT.]

Observer, Turkey is not a developed country, it is a developing country, so it can not be compared with countries which already have standards of living many times higher than Turkey.

If EU wants to expand further there are many other European countries that could join first. Turkey is not European.

About demographics, the EU can let in as many immigrants as needed. Why would they let Turks as equal EU citizens when they can have them, and many others, as immigrants who don't even get to vote, let alone have any MEPs or any other power in EU?

If you think that the Turks have the upper hand in this you are greatly mistaken. The only reason most Europeans don't throw out the application of Turkey is that the USA wants Turkey in EU to ensure that Turkey will not turn into another Iraq or Iran. Unfortunately for the Americans it seems that their efforts will not be successful and that Turkey will turn into another Iran soon, so I am sure they are already preparing plan B for Turkey.

The demographics are a big plus for Turkey and the EU can't just let in immigrants and counter balance the loss of losing that Turkish demographic. They are not only a labour force but in the cities these 18-35 year olds are also forming a new young middle class for Turkey which will serve the EU as consumers one day.

The point is that the cheap labour and the eventual buying power of Turkey is up for grabs (the one cancels the other out btw) however a close association with the EU is all the EU ever wanted and this is where they are trying to bring this. It just needs to be formed and sculpted until Turkey sees it in its interest to have this close association rather than full membership.

[observer]

Observer, Turkey is not a developed country, it is a developing country, so it can not be compared with countries which already have standards of living many times higher than Turkey.

If EU wants to expand further there are many other European countries that could join first. Turkey is not European.

About demographics, the EU can let in as many immigrants as needed. Why would they let Turks as equal EU citizens when they can have them, and many others, as immigrants who don't even get to vote, let alone have any MEPs or any other power in EU?

If you think that the Turks have the upper hand in this you are greatly mistaken. The only reason most Europeans don't throw out the application of Turkey is that the USA wants Turkey in EU to ensure that Turkey will not turn into another Iraq or Iran. Unfortunately for the Americans it seems that their efforts will not be successful and that Turkey will turn into another Iran soon, so I am sure they are already preparing plan B for Turkey.

The demographics are a big plus for Turkey and the EU can't just let in immigrants and counter balance the loss of losing that Turkish demographic. They are not only a labour force but in the cities these 18-35 year olds are also forming a new young middle class for Turkey which will serve the EU as consumers one day.

The point is that the cheap labour and the eventual buying power of Turkey is up for grabs (the one cancels the other out btw) however a close association with the EU is all the EU ever wanted and this is where they are trying to bring this. It just needs to be formed and sculpted until Turkey sees it in its interest to have this close association rather than full membership.

I think that DT has made a very good point, and I think that what he suggests is in Turkey's best interests. Similar relations with the EU certainly haven't done Norway and Switzerland any harm.