How not to solve the Cyprus conflict
What prompted otherwise rather diplomatic, but nevertheless assertive, German Chancellor Angela Merkel to just this once throw caution to the wind and openly challenge Ankara whilst visiting the southern part of the divided island of Cyprus? Imagine someone else publicly criticizing Portugal’s government for not doing enough for its domestic economic recovery whilst visiting the Greek prime minister and you get the full picture.
One could argue that in an era of 24/7 communication and complex political dossiers being made available in an instant, a politician’s comments may be labeled gaffes by some analysts but in all likelihood are exactly the opposite, i.e., they are well-crafted statements aimed at achieving a particular outcome. Today’s speechwriters and spin doctors have all too well mastered the art of briefing their ministers in advance about the issues best avoided whilst on a foreign trip. So we may be forgiven for speculating over whether what the German chancellor said a few days ago upon the occasion of her whirlwind visit to the island’s capital city of Nicosia (in Greek), Lefkoşa (in Turkish) -- I am using both languages deliberately as in my opinion the city is a symbol of future unity, not of permanent division -- was indeed how she interprets the divided island.
According to German TV station ARD, Mrs. Merkel openly challenged Turkey by saying that while the south of Cyprus had shown a high level of engagment in finding a compromise solution, there was no reciprocity; according to the comment attributed to Mrs. Merkel, “missing reciprocity” is to be interpreted as Ankara’s lack of a will to find a compromise solution indeed.
The only gesture made by Mrs. Merkel vis-à-vis the peoples of the northern part of Cyprus was a brief discussion forum held at the local Goethe-Institut when young citizens from both the south and north were able to meet the chancellor.
If her visit was indeed intended to help facilitate a solution for the conflict, she could have listened to her Cypriot counterpart’s concerns whilst conveying the message that a unified Cyprus would be in the interest of all parties concerned, not least the EU, of which both the southern part of Cyprus and Germany are full members. On a future visit to Turkey she could then have listened to the Turkish arguments. Finally, German bilateral diplomacy could become German trilateral diplomacy, ultimately leading to having the EU -- perhaps even more so than the UN -- taking over the role of true permanent peace and unification mediator. Leading a formerly divided nation, Mrs. Merkel will have a lot to contribute to this debate.
But after Mrs. Merkel’s visit, I must ask the question of whether this reluctance to let the peoples of the north begin to enjoy hassle-free international trade and improved access to international infrastructure funds is indeed part of a wider plan by Brussels to, at least for the foreseeable future, keep the division in place?
Could it be that Brussels believes that Turkey will unilaterally give in to all EU demands with regards to the Cyprus conflict without receiving any serious EU accession confirmations or, even if only tentative, a potential accession date in return? The comments made by Mrs. Merkel will only reinforce this understandable hesitation here in Ankara. As cumbersome as it is, Turkey should reinforce just this once (more) its lobbying activities all over Europe, but should not shelve its recent proactive “zero problems with neighbors” efforts. One day a politically strong Turkey will join the EU or not -- much more advantageous than a politically weak Turkey joining or not joining the EU. When will Brussels finally listen?
Mrs. Merkel’s visit to Cyprus highlights another Brussels incongruity, much less so Ankara’s reluctance to play its part: Whilst two days ago Baroness Catherine Ashton came to Turkey representing the entire EU and its emerging common foreign policies, a leading member state of the same political institution visited another member state and openly challenged the willingness of an EU candidate country to find a solution to a certain regional conflict. If another public opinion survey is carried out tomorrow asking Turkish citizens the question, “According to your knowledge, who represents the EU’s foreign policies: Baroness Ashton or individual heads of state and government?” respondents would be forgiven for ticking the box “Don’t know.”
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