Cyprus-Forum.com

[halil]

The mood in Greece and Cyprus
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist-22 ... yprus.html


spent the last few days of November in Athens to attend a conference that brings together journalists (mostly opinion writers) from the four sides of the Cyprus problem.

The occasion also provided me with an opportunity to take a closer look at what was happening in our neighbor to the west through talks with Greek colleagues and reading more about the current grave financial crisis of the country. For those who haven’t already done so, I highly recommend reading Michael Lewis’ “Beware of Greeks Bearing Bonds” (Vanity Fair, Oct. 1, 2010) and Takis S. Pappas’ “The Causes of the Greek Crisis are in Greek Politics” (Open Democracy, Nov. 29, 2010) as the best journalistic and academic accounts of the ongoing crisis.

Greek colleagues I talked to reflected a very bleak mood for the near future of the country. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have extended Greece a bailout credit package of 110 billion euros to help pay a government debt of roughly 270 billion (and growing) euros. The first installment consisting of 14.6 billion euros was made available last May and the second is due in March. It is not certain, however, whether the bailout plan will be effective in taking Greece out of the current crisis. There are doubts as to whether the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) government led by George Papandreou will be able to streamline the public sector in order to secure the continuation of the bailout plan. Reforms necessary to accomplish the task may be hindered by opposition coming basically from what is referred to as the “deep PASOK.” Early general elections before March, therefore, are regarded as a strong possibility.

The most optimistic Greek I met recently was the former Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis, who was expelled from the main opposition New Democracy Party for voting in favor of the bailout plan, and has founded a new political party. Bakoyannis, who spoke at a dinner in İstanbul last Tuesday evening, said Turkey’s experience in overcoming serious financial crises is an inspiration for Greece. The root causes of the (past) Turkish and (current) Greek crises (populism, patronage and ethnocentrism, as Pappas points out) are certainly common, and let us hope that both countries shall avoid those ills in the future with equal determination.

The meeting of journalists from the four sides of the Cyprus problem I attended in Athens is sponsored by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation of the German Social Democrats, and has been taking place at least twice a year for (a remarkable) 11 years. The mood regarding the future of the issue at hand has never been as pessimistic as in this last meeting. The hope of a comprehensive solution for the problem seemed to have been extinguished.

The main observations that were made in the meeting may help understand where we stand in the Cyprus problem today. Greece is faced with one of the most serious crises in its history, while Turkish-Greek relations seem to have grown independent of the Cyprus issue. Athens no longer possesses the leverage over Greek Cyprus that it used to, while Ankara’s leverage over Turkish Cyprus remains the same, if not stronger. Turkish Cyprus is dependent on Turkey in every respect.

Those who favor a comprehensive solution and reintegration of the island are in the minority on both sides. Part of Turkish Cypriots believe that they are becoming a minority on their part of the island due to the flow of settlers coming from Turkey. They feel they have been betrayed not only by the Greek Cypriots and the European Union, but also by Ankara, which is even humiliating them. The sense that they are falling into the minority in their own land is shared also by Greek Cypriots, due to growing immigration from the EU, Russia and the Arab countries. According to a recent estimate, the claim that the island’s population being 80 percent Greek and 20 percent Turkish no longer holds, the real distribution being 56 percent Greek, 9 percent Turkish and 35 percent settlers from abroad.

None of the Cypriot journalists attending the meeting seemed to have any hope for a comprehensive settlement through talks between the two sides. They shared the view that the island was doomed to permanent division unless the international community or the EU somehow imposed a solution. United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon met the leaders of Turkish and Greek Cyprus in New York last month, asking them to speed up bilateral talks with the intention of reaching a deal when the three meet again in Geneva next month. Ban is giving signals that the UN may withdraw from talks if even the Geneva meeting fails.

It is well known that failure to solve the Cyprus problem will mean the end of Turkey’s prospects of accession to the EU. None of the sides involved in the problem, including Turkey, however, seem to be willing to take steps towards a settlement. That is why Nathalie Tocci, the distinguished Italian scholar who specializes in the Cyprus problem, talks of “The baffling short-sightedness in the EU-Turkey-Cyprus Triangle.” (Instituto Affari Internazionali, October 2010.)

from below link u can read ''The baffling short-sightedness in the EU-Turkey-Cyprus Triangle''
http://www.iai.it/pdf/DocIAI/iai1021.pdf

[Get Real!]

[''The baffling short-sightedness in the EU-Turkey-Cyprus Triangle''

There's nothing baffling about Turkish stupidity. It’s nothing new…

[johbee]

Very interesting comments. The reality and a point you drive home by stating " Part of Turkish Cypriots believe that they are becoming a minority on their part of the island due to the flow of settlers coming from Turkey. They feel they have been betrayed not only by the Greek Cypriots and the European Union, but also by Ankara, which is even humiliating them. " is that it's not the Cyprus problem. It is a problem of illegal invasion and occupation.

[Ethem]

no, Johbee, it means that there is no positive outcome for TC's...whoever we end up with, we're buggered either way because Turkey will only see us a minority, RoC will only see us as a minority, and the same for anyone really...hence the importance of a federal government with 2 semi-autonomous states...its the only way we can avoid a minority with very little say...

@Get Real! i think you need to grow up...take a page from your own username...theres no such thing as TURKISH stupidity....5 of your fingers may belong to the same hand but they are all different sizes

@Halil, I have to agree with Ms Tocci...Eventually Turkey's EU aspirations may very well end and then we're all screwed...How long after EU tell Turkey no EU membership do you think it would take them to just annex North Cyprus? It's not as if the world can afford another war, let alone with Turkey who would undoubtedly ally with Russia

[Get Real!]

How long after EU tell Turkey no EU membership do you think it would take them to just annex North Cyprus?

Whoever said Turkey has such an option?

Don't propagate rubbish on matters you clearly don’t understand.

[Ethem]

Who say's they don't? the way I see it is the only thing holding them back is the EU accession...

Also, there's no need to talk in such an offensive manner...it only show's that the option I presented scares you...If you understood the matter you would not reply in such a closed manner but rather discuss the opportunity...Last time I checked this was a discussion board, am I not correct? Or is it all you do here, to slander and filth each other and not actually discuss the matter at hand?

[Get Real!]

Who say's they don't? the way I see it is the only thing holding them back is the EU accession...

Also, there's no need to talk in such an offensive manner...it only show's that the option I presented scares you...If you understood the matter you would not reply in such a closed manner but rather discuss the opportunity...Last time I checked this was a discussion board, am I not correct? Or is it all you do here, to slander and filth each other and not actually discuss the matter at hand?

Nobody is interested in your 2c opinion unless it is backed by research and credible evidence...

http://thecyprusproblem.100webspace.net ... icle31.htm

[Ethem]

that link doesn't open up any information...there's a broken picture link...please copy and paste...

also, there is no need for research or credible evidence as it is not something which has happened, it is speculative...

Give me one good reason why Turkey CAN NOT annex Cyprus? and don't bother quoting constitution or law as if Turkey do not gain EU membership they will not be morally bound by them any more

[Get Real!]

Can Turkey annex the occupied territory of Cyprus?

Let’s start with a definition. What is Annexation?

“Annexation is the legal incorporation of some territory into another geo-political entity (either adjacent or non-contiguous). Usually, it is implied that the territory and population being annexed is the smaller, more peripheral, and weaker of the two merging entities. It can also imply a certain measure of coercion, expansionism or unilateralism on the part of the stronger of the merging entities. Because of this, more positive terms like political union or reunification are sometimes preferred.

Annexation differs from cession and amalgamation, because unlike cession where territory is given or sold through treaty, or amalgamation where both sides are asked if they agree with the merge, annexation is a unilateral act where territory is seized and held by one state and made legitimate by the recognition of the international community”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation


And what does international law have to say about the annexation of another state's territory?



“Convention (IV) relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Time of War. Geneva, 12 August 1949.

Part III : Status and treatment of protected persons #Section III : Occupied territories

ARTICLE 47 - INVIOLABILITY OF RIGHTS

4. ' Annexation '

”As was emphasized in the commentary on Article 4 , the occupation of territory in wartime is essentially a temporary, de facto situation, which deprives the occupied Power of neither its statehood nor its sovereignty; it merely interferes with its power to exercise its rights. That is what distinguishes occupation from annexation, whereby the Occupying Power acquires all or part of the occupied territory and incorporates it in its own territory (4).

Consequently occupation as a result of war, while representing actual possession to all appearances, cannot imply any right whatsoever to dispose of territory. As long as hostilities continue the Occupying Power cannot therefore annex the occupied territory, even if it occupies the whole of the territory concerned. A decision on that point can only be reached in the peace treaty. That is a universally recognized rule which is endorsed by jurists and confirmed by numerous rulings of international and national courts.”

http://www.icrc.org/ihl.nsf/1a13044f3bb ... enDocument


So, is annexation of another state’s territory possible at all? Well apparently it IS but only under the following circumstances…



“3. ' Agreement concluded between the authorities of the occupied territory and the Occupying Power '

"Agreements concluded with the authorities of the occupied territory represent a more subtle means by which the Occupying Power may try to free itself from the obligations incumbent on it under occupation law; the possibility of concluding such agreements is therefore strictly limited by Article 7, paragraph 1"

http://www.icrc.org/ihl.nsf/1a13044f3bb ... enDocument


As we can see the act of “annexation” is in fact a LEGAL PROCESS recognized internationally where deemed appropriate and agreed upon, and that there’s no such thing as a “illegal annexation” so all Turkey can possibly do is to continue with the illegal occupation, in which case there’s no difference whatsoever from what she has already been doing on Cyprus since 1974!

Therefore, the notion that Turkey has the option to annex the occupied territory of sovereign UN & EU member Cyprus, is unfounded rubbish!




Conclusion:

The Republic of Cyprus’ territorial sovereignty is protected by the UN Charter and specifically under the Fourth Geneva Convention of 1949, making it impossible for Turkey or any other country, to annex any territorial portion of Cyprus without the Republic’s consent.


Regards, GR.

[Ethem]

Get Real, your missing the point I'm making....the point is if you make Turkey an outsider of the western world, why would they follow these international laws? they simply wouldn't have to...no one can do anything about it because the western world would lose its grip on Turkey...no chips left to play the game