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Cyprus endgame
Published: November 12 2010 19:59 | Last updated: November 12 2010 19:59
Sir David Hannay, an eminent British diplomat, once observed that no one had ever lost money betting against a successful outcome of negotiations to solve the Cyprus problem. As a former UK special representative for Cyprus, he knew whereof he spoke. The latest United Nations-sponsored talks, which started in 2008, have not even come close to ending the division of Cyprus, now in its 37th year. But the process is approaching a T-junction at which it will no longer be possible to avoid choosing between a settlement and the island’s permanent partition.
Demetris Christofias, president of the internationally recognised, Greek Cypriot-controlled government of Cyprus, and Dervis Eroglu, the leader of the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state, are due to confer in New York on Thursday with Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general. If, as seems entirely likely, the discussions lead nowhere, the UN may withdraw from its good offices mission, raising the prospect of formal partition. A two-state solution is not an ideal outcome. It would impose grave costs on the Greek Cypriots in terms of maintaining high levels of military expenditure to counter the perceived Turkish threat. In the short term, it would deal yet another blow to Turkey’s prospects of joining the European Union.
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But to varying degrees each Cypriot community has only itself to blame. For too long, Greek Cypriots have mouthed platitudes in support of reunifying Cyprus, while never taking the politically difficult decisions needed for a breakthrough. The Turkish Cypriots did at least vote in favour of a UN-brokered settlement in 2004. But Mr Eroglu has long favoured a two-state solution – as did Rauf Denktash, the Turkish Cypriot leader from 1983 to 2005. As Alexander Downer, the former Australian foreign minister and UN envoy for Cyprus, put it earlier this year: “It’s easy to sound in favour of a solution ... You can train a parrot in a pet shop to say that.”
If the Turkish Cypriots asked for recognition of their state, it would be difficult for the UK to oblige, because London is bound by a 1960 treaty of guarantee not to promote partition. Other EU countries would also hesitate. But many states are impatient with the constant Greek Cypriot disruption of EU business on account of the Cyprus dispute. They believe Turkey’s rising geopolitical and economic importance makes it imperative to show Ankara that the EU will not be hostage to the Greek Cypriots for ever. Even Russia, a long-time friend of the Greek Cypriots, is signalling a possible change of course on account of its newly blossoming ties with Turkey. The isolation of the Turkish Cypriots may therefore not last much longer – a point the Greek Cypriots should bear in mind before letting the UN talks fail.