Cyprus-Forum.com

[CyprusNewsReport]

Talks are ‘last chance for solution’ on Cyprus

By James Blitz in London, Kerin Hope in Athens and Delphine Strauss in Ankara

Published: November 7 2010 17:00

Cyprus might slide towards formal partition if a make-or-break meeting of Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders at the UN this month fails to find a solution to the long-running crisis, diplomats fear.

Three years after the UN began its latest attempt to broker a deal, Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary-general, has taken the unprecedented step of summoning the leaders of the Republic of Cyprus and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to New York in an attempt to end the deadlock.

The talks are set for November 18. But officials in the UN and leading western governments have warned that there is a limit to how long they will back the negotiations, saying they are running out of patience with the inability of both sides to strike a deal.

“If we don’t get agreement now . . . then it really is ‘goodnight, nurse’ ”, a leading diplomat involved in negotiations told the Financial Times.

“There’s a chance the UN will withdraw its good offices in hosting the talks. We’re not going to stay here for ever, going through mindless meetings and meaningless talks.”

Another senior diplomat from a European Union nation warned that the peace talks ran the risk of failing completely. “This meeting is the last chance for a solution because progress so far has been pitiful,” the diplomat said. “We’re approaching the point where it’s time to face up to the painful consequences of failure.” The Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders have held almost 90 face-to-face negotiating sessions in the drive for a settlement. Talks to create a single federal state comprising both communities appeared near success in January after years of often difficult talks. But discussions have stalled because the Greek Cypriots are demanding extra territory on the island before they agree to abandon their historic rights to property that is on the Turkish side.

The pace of talks has also slowed since Dervis Eroglu was elected Turkish Cypriot president last April, replacing Mehmet Ali Talat.

Critics of Demetris Christofias, the Republic of Cyprus president, said the Greek Cypriots were using filibustering tactics. “The Greek Cypriot leadership pulls back when advisers are close to agreeing,” said one person with knowledge of the talks.

The senior EU diplomat said failure to strike a deal this year would bring a real risk that Cyprus would move to formal partition. While the Greek part of the island is an internationally recognised state and member of the EU, the TRNC is formally recognised only by Turkey. “If there is no significant progress by the end of 2010, it will have disastrous consequences and Cyprus could be permanently divided in 2011,” the diplomat said.

“Withdrawal of the UN good offices after a failed peace process means that a non-negotiated partition becomes a real possibility and Turkey would likely push for wider recognition of the TRNC.”

According to the diplomat, the TRNC’s prospects of being recognised as an independent state have increased after an International Court of Justice ruling that Kosovo’s declaration of independence did not violate international law. “Partition will damage Cyprus economically, politically and culturally,” the diplomat told the FT.

“It will also threaten broader regional instability because it will mean Turkey and Greece have to spend more militarily on preserving the formal border across the island.”

Diplomats said the Greek Cypriots wanted all their property in the north of the island – comprising 75 per cent of total property in the TRNC – reinstated. The Turkish Cypriots want to keep the property and pay the Greek Cypriots compensation instead. “Both sides have started to come together on some aspects of the negotiation but haven’t reached sufficient convergence,” a UN official said.

Mr Eroglu wants to reach agreement on property before moving on to other areas. The sensitivity of the issue was confirmed last week when Turkish and Turkish Cypriot politicians met to discuss how to finance any compensation for Greek Cypriot owners.

Leaked reports of the session, attended by a Turkish bank chief executive, sparked a furore. “If things carry on as they are then it’s just negotiations for the sake of negotiations,” said a Turkish Cypriot official, adding that the New York meeting could produce simply an “X-ray photo” of the stalemate or a “prescription to break the deadlock”.



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/86ed1cd0-ea8c ... z14dTG6rvJ

If I had one euro for every time a journalist or politician says 'last chance' in the context of the peace talks, I'd be rather well off

[shahmaran]

So like I said, it's best to go our separate ways.

The problem with your scenario is that the ROC is still the sovereign international government of the whole of the island. The UN and the EU recognise only one government of the island. And we legally own around 80 per cent of the north. So can you tell me what we get from agreeing to a separation?

Try and think outside your usual box on this. Because unless you can come up with a really sound incentive for us to forego all our legal, moral and human claims to the north, I'm really struggling to see how this scenario might work.

It has been known for the international community to change its collective mind
Tibet/RoC (the big one)
Taiwan/RoC (the big one again)
Czechoslovakia (1936 and later)
Yugoslavia and too many to think of - including Kosova
USSR
Coming up ... Sudan? and maybe ... TRNC if there is something in it for the big powers ... which RoC (the little one) is not.

Let's not forget that the stupid Yankees refused to recognize China for 40 years, none of this is bullet proof.

Hermes just likes to feel secure by believing it to be so

[Kikapu]

So like I said, it's best to go our separate ways.

The problem with your scenario is that the ROC is still the sovereign international government of the whole of the island. The UN and the EU recognise only one government of the island. And we legally own around 80 per cent of the north. So can you tell me what we get from agreeing to a separation?

Try and think outside your usual box on this. Because unless you can come up with a really sound incentive for us to forego all our legal, moral and human claims to the north, I'm really struggling to see how this scenario might work.

It has been known for the international community to change its collective mind
Tibet/RoC (the big one)
Taiwan/RoC (the big one again)
Czechoslovakia (1936 and later)
Yugoslavia and too many to think of - including Kosova
USSR
Coming up ... Sudan? and maybe ... TRNC if there is something in it for the big powers ... which RoC (the little one) is not.

How about the oil under the sea off the RoC's southern shores.???

[observer]

Kikapu wrote

How about the oil under the sea off the RoC's southern shores.???

Good point. Maybe that is why there is not such an outcry about Brazil, who also voted against Iran sanctions, and has just discoverd enormous oil and gas deposits off its coast

[denizaksulu]

Zoc do you have a link to your reported story please?.

r u for real?... ok here you go...

http://www.fucktheft.com/cms/s/0/86ed1c ... z14dTG6rvJ

And what's the problem with three reporters contributing? Two of them presumably are their 'man on the spot' in Athens and Turkey.

i've no idea... i'd refer you to my source but he asked me not to reveal his identity - probably realised he was talking out of his hat.

Ahh the painful truth...

wot? didn't the link work?

NO!!

[pg]

It seems not only FT was working today, but also the Jack Straw and the Times:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadi ... Id=5069844

LONDON — Britain's former foreign secretary says a formal partition of Cyprus should be considered if current peace talks fail to agree a reunification plan.
Jack Straw wrote Monday in an op-ed article for the Times of London that the international community must break "a taboo" and consider the creation of two permanent states on the divided island.

http://www.newstatesman.com/commentplus ... riot-times

However, wheels have come off the process which had gained momentum in 2005, with potentially disastrous consequences. In the wake of Turkey's unwillingness to support tougher sanctions on Iran, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates claimed that it may have been "pushed by some in Europe" towards Iran. In reality Europe's strategic future with Turkey is now hostage to negotiations over Cyprus, where the Turkish army has occupied the Turkish Cypriot since 1974. This offers an easy excuse for those worried about Turkey's 98 per cent Muslim population. The EU should show the same practical vision here as it did with Bulgaria and Romania, where concerns over corruption and judicial systems exist. If the upcoming talks between the Greek Cypriot and the Turkish Cypriot fail, creation of two states must be considered. The EU needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the EU.

Does anyone have the full article?

[Oracle]

It seems not only FT was working today, but also the Jack Straw and the Times:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/canadi ... Id=5069844

LONDON — Britain's former foreign secretary says a formal partition of Cyprus should be considered if current peace talks fail to agree a reunification plan.
Jack Straw wrote Monday in an op-ed article for the Times of London that the international community must break "a taboo" and consider the creation of two permanent states on the divided island.

http://www.newstatesman.com/commentplus ... riot-times

However, wheels have come off the process which had gained momentum in 2005, with potentially disastrous consequences. In the wake of Turkey's unwillingness to support tougher sanctions on Iran, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates claimed that it may have been "pushed by some in Europe" towards Iran. In reality Europe's strategic future with Turkey is now hostage to negotiations over Cyprus, where the Turkish army has occupied the Turkish Cypriot since 1974. This offers an easy excuse for those worried about Turkey's 98 per cent Muslim population. The EU should show the same practical vision here as it did with Bulgaria and Romania, where concerns over corruption and judicial systems exist. If the upcoming talks between the Greek Cypriot and the Turkish Cypriot fail, creation of two states must be considered. The EU needs Turkey more than Turkey needs the EU.

Does anyone have the full article?

No one listened to him whilst he was in Office, once they sussed the regularity of his cock-ups. Why should law-abiding citizens care what this Council Tax cheating sycophant to Muslim voters have to say now he has no power and zero influence?

[Gasman]

Well of course no one listens to Straw if O says so! They hang on the every word of serious statesmen like Jeremy Clarkson instead (or anyone who says stuff they want to hear).

Here is what Daniel Hannan said about Jack Straw' analysis:

[Daniel Hannan is a writer and journalist, and has been Conservative MEP for South East England since 1999. He speaks French and Spanish and loves Europe, but believes that the EU is making its constituent nations poorer, less democratic and less free. He is the winner of the Bastiat Award for online journalism.]

Jack Straw’s analysis of the Cyprus problem (invisible behind the Times paywall) is spot on. The two sides had been inching towards a “land-for-peace” deal, whereby Turkish Cypriots would surrender a chunk of territory in return for recognition as equal partners in a bizonal and bicommunal federation. Not that these things are ever simple: there were unresolved disputes about the rights of refugees, compensation, relations with Turkey and the balance of power between the national and the communal authortities. Still, both sides had an incentive to settle: Greek Cypriots wanted to return to their homes, Turkish Cypriots to end their international isolation.

Then, just as it seemed that a deal was within reach, in blundered the EU. In defiance of common sense, equity and, for that matter, the 1960 accords which form the basis of the Cyprus constitution (and which prohibit “political or economic union with any state whatever” unless such a union is agreed by the three guarantor powers: Greece, Turkey and the United Kingdom), Brussels decided to allow the Greek Cypriot administration to join the EU on behalf of the whole island.

Had the EU made membership contingent on an internal settlement, such a settlement might well have been reached. Instead, Euro-negotiators stupidly accepted a unilateral Greek Cypriot application, and deferred the question of reunification. This, of course, removed from Greek Cypriots any pressure to reach a deal. They had got what they wanted: while they would be recognised as the legitimate government of the entire territory, their Turkish Cypriot neighbours would continue to be subject to international embargo.

Unsurprisingly, then, when the deal was eventually put to the two populations, Turkish Cypriots – including those in the areas that were to be ceded – voted to accept it, while Greek Cypriots rejected it. EU negotiators complained that they had been betrayed by Greek Cypriot leaders, but no sanctions followed. On the contrary, Northern Cyprus continued to be blockaded, despite having done what was asked of it, while Southern Cyprus enjoyed lavish Euro-subsidies, despite having voted “No”.

Jack Straw is, as I say, correct about all this. So why did he do nothing about it at the time? All the errors took place on his watch. As the British Foreign Secretary, representing one of the guarantor powers, he wasn’t simply one among 15 EU foreign ministers: it was his particular responsibility to ensure fair treatment for both communities and compliance with the 1960 constitution.

I suspect that, as with most bad decisions, it was taken by officials and then presented as a fait accompli to the minister. Sir Humphrey is more interested in strengthening the EU than in embroiling Britain in a row about a small Levantine island. This is why the Direct Democracy movement is campaigning for parliamentary control of foreign policy. It’s why Douglas Carswell and I want to scrap the treaty-making powers that the executive enjoys under Crown Prerogative, to make foreign treaties subject to annual re-ratification by Parliament, and to allow the Foreign Affairs Select Committee to approve ambassadorial appointments (see here).

I know Jack Straw a bit: he’s a decent and honest man who is in politics for all the right reasons. Yet it was striking to see how quickly the FCO got its claws into him. Having begun his career at Barbara Castle’s side, and organised the “No” campaign in 1975, he soon became one of the most vocal Euro-integrationists in the Blair government. Now that he’s out again, of course, he may return to his democratic roots. Let’s hope so.

I’m afraid it all goes to prove Hannan’s First Law: no party is ever Euro-sceptic while in office.

[Gasman]

Oh, and subscribers to the FT can read all articles. But they are shitty about copyright and cut and paste. O seems to paste in their stuff with no worries - perhaps she will do so? Doesn't cost much to subscribe anyway.

[Gasman]

Perhaps he hasn't forgotten this!


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/4646474.stm