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Christofias and the Annan Plan

How can we solve it? (keep it civilized)

Postby Tony-4497 » Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:02 am

As you know, 76% believes that the AP is the disaster scenario and much worse than the "bad" status quo
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Postby Gasman » Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:14 am

Christofias shouldn't have gone to the talks and demand they start from zero basis.


That point comes up again and again. And also that after he was elected, Christofias placed more importance on 'foreign travel' than he did on applying himself to the talks/solution.

And that he might have had a chance to finalise with Talat if it were not for these two factors dragging it out and resulting in him having to now deal with Eroglu.

And these comments and quotes are not from blogs or newspapers or half arsed one sided so-called Cyprus discussion forums.
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Postby Bananiot » Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:32 am

Tony, many people voted "no" not because they had an issue with BBF but because they felt that the final plan was not up to scratch. Christofias himself asked for some "minor" changes so that the people can "cement a yes vote". Later, Papadopoulos asked the parties to give him suggestions that would improve the Annan plan. He took the suggestions and did nothing with them, he was just interested in messing about with the international community.

No other solution is possible, I am afraid. I wish there was an opportunity for a unitary state but this is out of reach now, unless we can wage a successful war. The situation as it is will not go on forever. The occupied parts will be flooded with settlers and rich investors. This is happening right now. Turkey has a fast growing economy (I think the fastest in the world now) and it is a non permanent member of the SC of the UN. It belongs to the G20 and soon it will join the G10, according to predictions.

Without solution we have no future and if the international community is to help us, we should forget about the desirable and look for the feasible.
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Postby Gasman » Fri Oct 22, 2010 9:50 am

It's also often stated (here) that all settlers must leave the island and return to Turkey. I think this is wholly unrealistic.

And said that the bringing of them to the North contravened laws. But, I am reading that, as far back as 2002 (this from a French diplomatic source) it was being said:

Turkish Cypriots' survival is at stake. If the impasse proves insurmountable, their only way out will be to apply for individual EU membership, since they are eligible for Cypriot passports and can become EU citizens.

A demographic shortfall in the north would be offset by Turks from Anatolia.


And also (early this year) from an RSC working paper that:

Postponing the GC refugees' right of return was set out in previous UN initiatives and would also be acceptable as an exceptional measure in the eyes of the EU.


It might be said over and over here - all settlers to be returned, all Turkish troops out and all GC refugees given the right to return to their property. But I doubt that is what Christofias has been insisting on as it seems wholly unrealistic and unlikely.
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Postby Tony-4497 » Fri Oct 22, 2010 10:40 am

Bananiot, I too do not have a fundamental problem with the BBF as a title. In fact, I agree that it may be the only model that if defined and applied correctly can give sufficient "independence/ autonomy" of the two sides while maintaining reasonable overall control over issues such as immigration and security.

However, the type of BBF that Turkey is willing to offer at this stage (and that Christofias is willing to accept i.e. AP plus guarantees) will never pass a GC referendum as it is not balanced - it effectively gives all the spoils of war to the Turks and is worse than the status quo. Until Turks are ready to accept a reasonable solution (whereby they keep only some spoils of war), an intelligent RoC President (hopefully the next one) will start using the EU card to manage the adverse impact of time on the status quo (effectively control the settler and stolen property development issues).
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Postby Viewpoint » Fri Oct 22, 2010 7:42 pm

Do you ever consider the fact that the international community also see GCs at fault with regards to where Cyprus is today and thats why they do not take any measures against Turkey?
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Postby boulio » Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:17 pm

Do you ever consider the fact that the international community also see GCs at fault with regards to where Cyprus is today and thats why they do not take any measures against Turkey?


THe international community has condemed turkey with its SECURITY COUNCIL Resolutions.If they find fault with the GC then then should drag the ROC to the security council and pass resolutions stating your opinion that they are at fault.
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Postby Get Real! » Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:31 pm

Bananiot wrote:...we should forget about the desirable and look for the feasible.

If “feasible” is based on military might then it’s quite obvious that this is not the right time for a “solution”! :wink:
Last edited by Get Real! on Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Get Real! » Fri Oct 22, 2010 8:33 pm

Gasman wrote:It's also often stated (here) that all settlers must leave the island and return to Turkey. I think this is wholly unrealistic.

If “unrealistic” is based on military might then it’s quite obvious that this is not the right time for a “solution”! :wink:
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Postby Hermes » Mon Oct 25, 2010 2:25 pm

Tony-4497 wrote:Christofias was protesting that Turkish proposals were even worse than (not just "different to") the AP, which was rejected as unacceptable by 76% of GCs.

That said, his reference to the AP as well as to "established sensitive balances" in the same letter demostrate that what he is cooking up is the AP with a different name.. everyone knows he initially accepted the AP and then changed his tune when he realised it wouldn't pass (which effectively landed him the Presidency..)

The negotiations are just a farce.. Nothing more than 2 parties that both accepted the AP (Turkey and Christofias) putting on a show in order to "sell" this plan to the GCs.. with Downer in the role of the PR adviser/ scaremonger.. if and when they reach the point where they feel that a majority of GCs has "bought it", then they will run a referendum.

Unfortunately for the GC side, however, Christofias (and possibly Anastasiades) may have illusions of being great leaders and that the public will just follow them blindly into a Yes at referendum on an AP-type solution - and choose to ignore polls (all of which say the opposite). This is the greatest risk right now i.e. a second No at referendum due to a criminal and arrogant miscalculation, mainly by Christofias.


This is less of a risk as Turkey's intransigence is ensuring that even a modified AP is unlikely to go to referendum. If Turkey were clever they could have made quick compromises on key sticking points to pressure the G/Cs into accepting an improved AP. As it is, it looks like they have lost their chance by actually attempting to alter those parts of the AP they didn't want in the first place, with the result that the negotiations have stalled and they will be faced with a less compliant leader than Christofias next time.
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