Karabakh conflict a 'tactical testing ground' for West, Russia
Wed 08 September 2010 13:39 GMT | 17:39 Local Time
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Tofig Abbasov News.Az interviews Lider TV commentator, political scientist Tofig Abbasov.
How do you assess the overall geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus today?
The situation is notable for the growing tensions. Since the incident on 18 June when Azerbaijani advance groups managed to suppress a provocation to the rear of the enemy, Armenian servicemen have been looking for revenge; they constantly break the ceasefire and provoke tension. In such conditions it is at the least naïve to speak of prospects of a breakthrough in the peace process. I don’t know the mood of the [Minsk Group] co-chairs in their visit to the region, but one thing’s for sure and that’s that they aren't deeply affected by the losses.
Is the deterioration of the situation on the front line part of ongoing processes in our region?
Hostilities are inevitably explosive material which fills the vacuum in the political process. For example, Armenian President Sargsyan regrets that Azerbaijan has not concluded a treaty on the non-use of force. Can a party that is genuinely seeking peace demonstrate the level of aggression [seen from Armenia]? The answer is simple. On the one hand, the Armenians are brainwashing the mediators and the community with their traditional whining about alleged repression and, on the other hand, they are putting pressure on Azerbaijan to force it into concessions. I think a treaty on the non-use of force may be concluded with Armenia. This will help take the wind out of the enemy’s sails and model a thoroughly different situation when Armenia will have one less reason for its intractability.
How will all this influence the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
This is what we are talking about. Armenia is a party with which you have to “go all round the houses” in search of compromise. The Armenians complain about a lack of measures of trust. The doleful complaints come from a party that bore a grudge in the times of the Ottoman Empire, the Turkish Republic, the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic, in Soviet times and since. If it did not have foreign supporters, it would behave differently. We should not forget that the major powers always welcome such crises as Karabakh. They help them to execute their plans to rule. They cannot have an interest in their resolution. Moreover, for the West and Russia the Karabakh conflict is a tactical, rather than strategic, testing ground. In other words, this is not the Balkans or Iraq, where the basis of a long-term economic program was laid under the cover of military intervention. They operate very slowly in the South Caucasus, even lazily. This is all contradictory. All our troubles stem from this. And Armenia, a country with the status of a geopolitical appendix, bears the greater part of these troubles. Unfortunately, the Armenian elite is aware of the harmfulness of what is going on but lacks both the political and civil will to recognize it and draw the necessary conclusions.
Is there a risk of escalation into a full military confrontation? Do you agree with Russian political scientists who say that Azerbaijan should not expect the support of any state, not even Turkey, if we seek to restore the territorial integrity of our state through war?
This risk is growing every day. Only the mediators from the Minsk Group can be cold-blooded in these conditions. The process is inevitably moving towards a critical point. The mediators are making no effort but do not conceal their delight that the dialogue of the presidents has not been frustrated. And against this background, soldiers and officers are dying at the front. It is strange that the three countries [of the Minsk Group co-chairs – France, the USA and Russia] and international organizations are always warning Azerbaijan against using force. They are talking to the wrong side. Baku has said what it had to say at the negotiating table, unlike Yerevan. It means that the party that is hindering the peace process is preparing for war.
http://news.az/articles/22440
2 things quickly spring to mind...
1...to appreciate the above, not only subsitude azerbaijan with cyprus and armenia with Turkey, to get a clearer picture but gives you an inside of war brewing...hmmmm GR might not be that far off the mark...
2...weren't these idiots talking recognition of the occupied?...
