Something’s cooking on Cyprus but don’t hold your breath
By Stefanos Evripidou Published on August 29, 2010
IT’S BEEN a long hot summer, but in the laborious world of the Cyprus problem, autumn’s about to get hotter.
For those who cling on to the hope that this will be the year of a solution, don’t hold your breath. But, like so many times before in the history of the talks, something’s definitely cooking.
“The dynamics are there for major development, but not the final breakthrough,” says University of Nicosia’s international relations expert Hubert Faustmann.
“The negotiations have clearly not advanced significantly to be concluded within three, four months. You would need a complete change in the speed and conduct of the talks to do that,” he adds.
Faustmann points out that even if progress was made on property, many issues in the first three chapters remain unresolved. “It would be unrealistic to expect completion by the end of the year.”
However, there is enough going on in the many realms and dimensions where Cyprus shares a space to expect a “massive showdown” in the coming months.
“It’s a cliché in Cyprus to say the next few months are really important, but the truth is they are really important,” said a European diplomat.
“Despite all the talk about no timeframes, the focus really is on Eroglu’s call for a 2010 solution,” said the diplomat, acknowledging that this could in effect mean a big step forward as opposed to tying the knot.
“The thing with Turkey, and I think everyone acknowledges this now, is that Cyprus is not within their top five priorities at the moment. But I believe Turkey still wants a solution and I don’t think Ankara will let Eroglu walk away from the table on January 1,” he added.
The two leaders will return from their short summer break on Tuesday to resume the talks, followed by a ‘very Cypriot dinner’ at President Demetris Christofias’ holiday home in Kellaki. This time round, both sides are expected to submit comprehensive proposals on property, as opposed to simply stating their well-known positions, as has happened to date.
Turkish Cypriot leader Dervis Eroglu has mooted the idea of intensifying the negotiations. Whether they agree to that or simply increasing the frequency of their meetings, one thing’s for certain; both leaders will have November in mind, when UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon releases his promised progress report on the talks.
UN Special Adviser Alexander Downer has played his part here in preparing the broth for the bicommunal dinner. Eyebrows were certainly raised as Downer played up the importance of the November report with a backdrop of news speculation on him leaving the island, the negotiations ending, Ban calling a meeting of the two leaders in New York or even a ‘Burgenstock-style’ conference.
“This may have ended up focusing people’s minds more on how they come out in the report than on a settlement, but it did re-energise the process,” said the EU diplomat.
In the meantime, both sides have to ensure that neither looks like its stalling or creating obstacles on the property chapter, a tall order given their divergent positions. And both have used the summer recess to engage in a spot of PR.
Eroglu’s representative Kudret Ozersay escaped the sweltering heat of August to embark on a tour of Denmark and Sweden where he proposed that the property issue could be solved using the model of the Immoveable Property Commission (IPC). In other words, compensation at a level unacceptable to Greek Cypriots and exchange of properties north and south, with a limited number of properties returned.
His pitch is the solemn suggestion that the IPC is effectively the love child of the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), deserving serious consideration.
Christofias, on the other hand, announced his triptych package of proposals at a public event. He suggested linking property talks with territory and settlers; opening Famagusta port in exchange for Varosha, and inviting Turkey with a lot of other people, states and organisations to an international conference to wrap things up, once the bulk of work has been agreed upon between the two leaders.
The irony here being that neither positions are new and both have already been rejected by the other side.
The focus of next month will be who will lose the blame game. You can expect some progress but not completion. The endgame will come in November and December with the UN report and EU Summit,” said Faustmann, referring to the European Council’s annual progress report on Turkey’s accession path.
A source close to the Greek Cypriot negotiating team said the call for intensified talks was a “red herring” to make the Greek Cypriot side look bad.
“What’s the point of everyday talks if there are no logical proposals put on the table? Eroglu says the same things every time. If we could make a breakthrough, then yes, but more of the same stale and futile effort is not reason enough.”
The source argued that “the Turkish and Turkish Cypriot assessment is that the ECHR has decided that Greek Cypriots have no rights other than for compensation”.
“Eroglu is on a tight leash from Ankara not to create noise, but he remains the political child of (Rauf) Denktash. The maximum concession he’s willing to give is a confederation of two equal states with some territory handed over and nothing more,” he added.
The same source predicted that little was likely to come of the talks until the end of October when Turkey would make a “big splash” before the November report.
“That is their strategy. They will wait till there’s almost a crisis and then come and say they’ll return 20 per cent of Greek Cypriot properties instead of ten. They’ve doubled the figure but still fall short.”
This will again put the Greek Cypriots in a corner, for two reasons. “Due to the internal situation, there is absolutely no room for manoeuvre,” he said, referring to the complete disunity on the domestic front. “Second, by the time we study the proposal, consult everyone and convene the National Council, we won’t have a chance to come back with a counter offer before Ban’s report.”
A Turkish Cypriot analyst who did not wish to be named disagreed that Eroglu was of the same vein as his former role model.
“Eroglu is more interested in a deal than Denktash ever was but his idea of a solution is not likely one that Greek Cypriots can accept,” he said.
He noted that a lot depended on how the referendum on September 12 will go in Turkey. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called a vote aimed at amending Turkey’s constitution to strengthen parliament, civil rights and his own grip over the Kemalists, judiciary and military. If he gets his amendments passed, the timing of a Turkish general election may not be until the end of 2011. If not, it may come earlier. Whatever happens, the Cyprus parliamentary elections will be held in May 2011.
“So when the Turkish side uses the end of the year as a timeframe, there is some logic to that,” said the analyst, adding, “any movement has to happen in the fall”.
How much the two sides are likely to agree depends on what they bring to the table.
“A lot of convergence in the talks has to do with the question of financing a property deal. For that to happen, Greek Cypriots have to agree on mass exchange. The Greek Cypriot proposals on reinstatement of property are impossible to implement. There is too much uncertainty, especially when you consider (the ECHR ruling) Demopoulos which says the current user has a say.”
On the other hand, in another ECHR ruling, “Arestis suggests the wholesale reinstatement of vacant property, so a lot depends on how you deal with the categories”.
Then there’s the issue of direct trade and return of Varosha, the fenced off part of Famagusta with both sides hedging their bets on securing concessions outside of a comprehensive solution.
Direct trade is clearly an issue that Brussels would like to see passed. The European Parliament’s legal committee is set to discuss the legal basis of this regulation on Thursday.
DISY’s MEP Ioannis Kasoulides believes the verdict will probably be somewhat ambiguous, leaving it for the Conference of Presidents (heads of political groupings in the EP) to decide. He predicts a “long, hard battle ahead, which at the end of the day, only the European Court of Justice can decide”.
“What we are facing is the European Commission coming very heavily in favour of its proposal (on direct trade) to the point where they have converted and influenced key people in their favour. It’s very difficult when you have the Commission against you to give an equitable fight,” said Kasoulides.
So, this autumn we can expect to see pressure for progress on the property talks, a key constitutional vote in Turkey, a bruising match on direct trade, possible meetings with Ban in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, his November report, and all the machinations that come before and during an EU December Summit.
The Greek Cypriot source said he expected the November report to be balanced on both sides, despite the fact “Eroglu has done nothing to show he’s trying for a solution”. Instead, the focus may be on making a small reduction in the number of troops in UNFICYP, while slightly increasing the number of civilian police. On the EU Summit, the Greek Cypriots had little leg room, he added.
For Faustmann, the target is clear: “The likely scenario is Turkey needs to be let off the hook. The EU will push for direct trade in exchange for Turkey opening its ports and airports to Cyprus, allowing the eight chapters to be unblocked.
“This is simply disastrous for the Greek Cypriots. They’ll try to throw in Varosha. If successful it would be a major breakthrough and an ideal scenario. It’s a win, win, win situation, not to mention the economic boost for all sides, but it’s a much less likely scenario,” he said.
“Turkey will only include Varosha if Ercan (Tympou) airport opens up, but the Greek Cypriots won’t go for that because control of airports is clearly a sovereignty issue,” added Faustmann.
He argued that pushing for direct trade would violate EU practices as it is “an attack on the vital interests of the Cyprus Republic, which would then block everything for Turkey”.
“We can expect massive moves or a massive clash,” he warned.
The Turkish Cypriot analyst agreed that Varosha was a hard sell, though if enough Greek Cypriot refugees applied to the IPC for land which has no current user, it would very soon become a liability for Turkey.
“Since Arestis, it’s more of a liability but Greek Cypriots are not willing to flood the IPC so Turkey has time,” he said.
With all this in mind, is there any chance of a solution soon?
“It’s not impossible, but there’s no political will on both sides. The Greek Cypriots know a solution can’t be anything other than the dreaded Annan plan, which won’t satisfy their constituency, while the Turkish Cypriots are preoccupied with their own internal mess.”
Still, the island remains divided, Turkey is on its EU path, the UN is here, bridging proposals will come, in-depth polls will enlighten, and as someone, somewhere once said…hope die
http://www.cyprus-mail.com/cyprus/somet ... h/20100829
I wonder if the GC's will accept an Annan based solution? Hmmm interesting. I wonder if under such solution whether GC's will be able to settle in the north freely as would TC's be able to settle freely on the Island. Or will it be one rule for the TC's another for the GC's.
