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Two options if talks fail

How can we solve it? (keep it civilized)

Postby Tony-4497 » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:31 pm

zan wrote:
Tony-4497 wrote:Oh, and as for the doom & gloom scenarios, again, you are completely ignoring the parameter of Turkey's EU accession, which is Turkey's only incentive for accepting any solution in the first place. It goes without saying that if "TRNC" becomes a Taiwan (i.e. direct flights, trade etc) then the RoC will retaliate by blocking fully Turkey's EU path and closing the green line.

Not to mention the legal difficulties re flights and the fact that full recognition would needed to develop an international financial centre - even Taiwan has not penetrated this market (unlike Hong Kong and Singapore), precisely because Taiwan-registered holding companies have substantial drawbacks due to non-recognition (both legal and tax/ treaties obstacles).


And if the decision comes FROM the "RoC"...................

You mean if the RoC voluntarily facilitates direct flights, trade etc? Then it would of course work, but this would mean that we are close to a solution and this is an interim stage..

I could only see this happening in case Turkey agrees to significant territorial adjustments (i.e. not just Varoshia) and removal of almost all of the troops (that she doesn't need anyway, given its planes can get here in 5 minutes..)..
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Postby Bananiot » Wed Aug 18, 2010 5:53 pm

Tony, I have just listened to EDEK's leader Omirou on the 6 o'clock news on tv. You talk about my doom and gloom scenarios but you should have heard Omirou! He reckoned, with Karatzaferis standing next to him nodding his head in approval, that Cyprus is facing the most crucial time ever. He warned that solution is imminent and that this will be pressed on us with asfyxiating time frames and arbitration. You see, this is the general feeling in Cyprus and many analysts from across the political spectrum are pointing out towards this direction.

If Turkey is not pronounced as the guilty party for the failure of the talks, but rather as the party that did everything to keep the momentum of the talks going, I do not see how this will affect the accession path of Turkey to the EU. Contrary, it will recieve a huge boost and her path will be made much easier this time, without having to worry about the Cyprus issue because we will be held wholly responsible for failure to reach solution and thus the Cyprob will be declared usolvable.

Christofias has committed basic mistakes in my view. There was only one way to go about the talks. He should have negotiated on the basic of the Annan Plan for which he should have asked for such improvements as to make it palatable to the GC community. In fact, he pin pointed these improvements in 2004, a few weeks after the referendum. Instead, he started from scratch and this gave the possibility to the Turkish side to appear with really tough asks. They cannot be blamed for this, such is the nature of negotiations. Thus, he missed the opportunity to put Turkey to the test. Probably, the course he took was directed by his partners in government, DIKO and EDEK, at the time. Still, this is not an excuse for Christofias, who committed the cardinal sin in 2003, when he made Papadopoulos president.

There will be no legal difficulties in Taiwanisation of the north. In fact, the north will appear as a european state, without the obligations of a european state. A perfect fianancial paradise which we could never antagonise. Closing the green line might just be possible but it will look really bad for us. In fact, it will be good in the long run for recognition. Blocking the EU path of Turkey by Cyprus is not on. The EU has ways of preventing such nonsense, I assure you.

The Archbishop (and you Tony) should look at the size of Cyprus before opening his mouth. This micromegalomaniac wants to speak tough to Turkey and I cannot stop thinking of the ant and the elephant joke.
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Postby DT. » Wed Aug 18, 2010 6:02 pm

Bananiot wrote:
There will be no legal difficulties in Taiwanisation of the north. In fact, the north will appear as a european state, without the obligations of a european state. A perfect fianancial paradise which we could never antagonise. Closing the green line might just be possible but it will look really bad for us. In fact, it will be good in the long run for recognition. Blocking the EU path of Turkey by Cyprus is not on. The EU has ways of preventing such nonsense, I assure you.

The Archbishop (and you Tony) should look at the size of Cyprus before opening his mouth. This micromegalomaniac wants to speak tough to Turkey and I cannot stop thinking of the ant and the elephant joke.


i skipped straight to your wishlist bananiot (growing tired of your constant ramblings)

the points in red are alarming to say the least. What proof do you have of the taiwanisation and why would it be a sinch legally? Do you read what you write or have you been on the papapetrou spirits again?

As for the european financial paradise you mention, you obviously know nothing about the finance industry and the requirements of being on FATF lists, KYC processes and recognised money laundering procedures.

As for the last, you're proving naive to say the least by not considering which powerful interests Cyprus has alligned itself with for the special relationship outcome between Turkey and EU.
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Postby Get Real! » Wed Aug 18, 2010 6:17 pm

Bananiot wrote:There will be no legal difficulties in Taiwanisation of the north. In fact, the north will appear as a european state, without the obligations of a european state. A perfect fianancial paradise which we could never antagonise. Closing the green line might just be possible but it will look really bad for us. In fact, it will be good in the long run for recognition. Blocking the EU path of Turkey by Cyprus is not on. The EU has ways of preventing such nonsense, I assure you.

I'm glad you admit that illegalities were always aimed for and preplanned, and that your purported "peace" and "solution" negotiations and/or “peace rallies” were nothing but a sham!

You shameless and spineless creature of a human… Image





But we will have the final say... :wink:
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Postby zan » Wed Aug 18, 2010 6:51 pm

Get Real! wrote:
Bananiot wrote:There will be no legal difficulties in Taiwanisation of the north. In fact, the north will appear as a european state, without the obligations of a european state. A perfect fianancial paradise which we could never antagonise. Closing the green line might just be possible but it will look really bad for us. In fact, it will be good in the long run for recognition. Blocking the EU path of Turkey by Cyprus is not on. The EU has ways of preventing such nonsense, I assure you.

I'm glad you admit that illegalities were always aimed for and preplanned, and that your purported "peace" and "solution" negotiations and/or “peace rallies” were nothing but a sham!

You shameless and spineless creature of a human… Image





But we will have the final say... :wink:


No GR....Your actions always come as a surprise to us.....FFS :roll:
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Postby Tony-4497 » Thu Aug 19, 2010 11:29 am

Bana
he should have asked for such improvements as to make it palatable to the GC community.


Agreed - and additionally he should have also (a) justified the required changes using basic human rights law, facts and common sense, (b) communicated this to international public opinion through proper PR and (c) presented Turkey with a deadline to accept the revised plan, stating that in the opposite case all talks would cease, Turkey's EU progress would fully freeze and green line would be closed until Turkey EITHER accepted this plan OR withdrew its troops and we all reverted to full legality i.e. respect by all to the 1960 consitution.

This would have resulted in either the problem being solved or at least noone blaming us for it and Turkey having a strong incentive to solve it.

In fact, he pin pointed these improvements in 2004


Ah, here is where we fully disagree! You are referring to his statement that the plan is pretty much fine and we just need guarantees for its implementation.

I believe this is in stark conflict with your statement above as implementation guarantees are nowhere near enough to make this plan palatable to 50%+1 GC referendum voters. If you or Christofias really believe this, then you need to get your head examined - or at least start reading what all polls say. Going with this plan would be the "suicide" that Ananstasiades mentioned as it would result in a second No and be the last nail in the coffin of Cyprus.

However, I am sure that if someone runs a poll, he/ she would find that 50%+ of GCs and possibly 50%+ of TCs (if not now, then after they have realised this is the best they will ever get) would accept a version of the Annan plan that provides for 4 key changes:

- a central government with absolute minimum functions necessary for single international representation, giving near-sovereignty to the component states

- Turkish guarantees/ intervention rights for only the TC statelet, UN Ch7/ EU guarantees+base for GC state

- Land and Coast sharing of 75% GC, 5% Federal, 20% TC (which reduces the property issue dramatically and ensures the 18% TCs owning 12% of land do not get massive spoils of war at our expense)

- The ONLY "implementation guarantee" that can work: FIRST Turkey hands back ALL areas to be returned to the UN, and THEN the new state of affairs is recognised. This (i.e. escrow a/c) is the ONLY way in which deals are done today - anything else will rely on Turkey "goodwill" and will never be accepted at referendum.

The sooner we all understand this is the ONLY way forward, the better.
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Postby Nikitas » Thu Aug 19, 2010 1:01 pm

Tony 4497,

Good post and finally a touch of common sense about the goals that should be set.

One obsrvation re this: "- Land and Coast sharing of 75% GC, 5% Federal, 20% TC (which reduces the property issue dramatically and ensures the 18% TCs owning 12% of land do not get massive spoils of war at our expense)"

There is the potential minefield of the British bases. Therefore it should be made clear from the outset that should the British leave, the bases revert to the GC state, thus preventing any future dispute about the share of that territory which right now is regarded as British but contains mostlyl GC villages (Xyltymmbou, Xylofagou, Ormthia etc). Additionally, the TC community should incorporate in their referendum text a declaration that they desist from any future claims to any new territory and forego the projection of any "minority rights" which might in time arise in the south through internal migration.

By now we know enough about the means used to undermine and sabotage and we should do the wise thing to prevent such moves in the future.
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Postby Nikitas » Thu Aug 19, 2010 1:09 pm

If the talks fail it will not be to any mistake by Christofias or others. Collectively we ignored the simple hierarchy implicit in the acronym BBF. The term itself prioritises matters, Bizonality, ie territory comes first, then follow the others, Bicommunality and finally Federation.

We tackled this simple formula ass first, going for the high falluting bullshit like "governance" and wasting time on a part we know in practice will evolve the way the Turks want no matter what. But "governance" is dialectically charged, it melds well with our kafenio culture. It makes for good discussions and arguments, it even translates into Greek katharevousa, high grammar, not your rif raf dialect.

Go back to basics. BBF is partition in fancy dress. Concentrate on the essentials, aim the fork at the meat, forget the gravy.
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