by Bananiot » Wed Aug 18, 2010 10:24 am
The time for cynicism is over Tony. Come this fall we will face crunch time. While we are running scared of timeframes for solution, Turkey's position in the world is becoming more important, Turkey has the 16th economy worldwide, Turkey is a member of G20 and has not been touched by the economic crisis, while becoming more and more involved in the political scene in the Middle East, as a mediator. Currently, Turkey is becoming a leader force within the Islamic world too. Yes, when the Turkish leader speaks, the world listens, no matter how harsh this may sound for us, the victims of the invasion of 1974.
As a result, because Turkey is also winning the communication game, most countries, even those that traditionally supported us, think that we are responsible for the lack of solution. This will be reflected in some important decisions the international community will take this Autumn and Winter, and we will not like them. Probably, if the talks fail to bear fruit, the UN Secretary General will suggest some sort of an international conference as an antidote to the final failure (final because just about everybody is fed up with us) to which Turkey will say yes straight away while we will reject it, as we have already done so.
I do not know if recognition of the break away state will be achieved this time. Turkey is not in a hurry on this anyway. She can wait until we make more tactical mistakes and rest assure that we will see recognition too. For the moment, though, Taiwanisation is the best bet. This will be detrimental to our economy which will suffer greatly if a Taiwan type economy is set up next door. It will be a huge blow as our main income comes from services which will now be offered considerably more cheaply by the "TRNC" which will also become a tax heaven, with a European Union outlook.