Kikapu wrote:CopperLine wrote:Look at this map and regret.
Had the vote for the AP been positive then much of what everyone on this forum is haggling over would have been resolved. The whole island would be within the EU, GCs and TCs woiuld have had property-losses addressed, Turkish settlement would have come to an end, the Turkish military would have left, and the territorial 'division' would have been completed (i.e, as of today, Varosha would have been returned over two and a half years ago).
No, the AP was by no means perfect and was open to all sorts of criticism, but better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong.
Any other solution is going to be a variety of AP (or worse). If only we had made the Cyprus problem history.
CopperLine,
The AP being a Confederation Plan as well as both north and south being the "founding states" of the New United Cyprus, what makes you think that the north would not have separated to become an independent sovereign state and remain a EU member at the same time, which would have served Turkey's interest in order to have influence in the EU through the north state with their EU veto power in the EU. Also, as a Confederate "founding state" the north state could have given as many citizenship's to the future settlers from Turkey and made them EU citizens in short time, which then would have been spread all over the island at will. How long do you think it would have taken for the new Turkish EU citizens to take ove the whole island in your view.?? In the meantime, Turkey would have retain her guarantorship over the whole island, including the south state. Everything in the AP could have been turned upside down by the slightest ethnic altercations for Turkey to remain in Cyprus with her troops citing her garantourship rights, and don't think for a moment, there wouldn't have been ethnic violence cooked up sooner or later to justify for Turkey to remain in Cyprus. AP had 9,000 + pages to deal with and not the one or two soundbites you have introduced above on what ifs. What you have pointed out had the AP passed could be easily be categorized as being
"Penny wise and a Pound foolish" for the GCs, hence the strong 76% rejection by them. What more do you need to know about what the AP was all about..??..!
CopperLine, can you also tell me who made this quote below, please.!
"TRNC could be recognised at the drop of a hat, just as Slovenia, Croatia, and other former federal Yugoslav states were even though the FR of Yugoslavia in the form of the core state of Serbia Montenegro violently opposed their secession and international recognition. The irony is that if the 1974 separation and the 1983 TRNC declaration had occurred respectively one decade later the chances are that TRNC wouuld have been recognised immediately by the international community because of the developments in 'international humanitarian law' and the 'laws of war' following the end of the Cold War. You could say that TCs were just too far ahead of their time."
CopperLine wrote:In politics anything is possible, so Kikapu, yes what you fear may have come about, but I don't think so. That's the point of a negtotiated settlement : you attend to the possibilities and one tries to limit the negative possibilities by putting in procedures and practices which minimise the chances of those negatives arising. As I've said many times here, the AP was by no means perfect, but I challenge anyone to propose anything which has anything like as strong a chance of agreement and approval. (If this forum were any reflections of reality then the "best" most likely proposals would gather no more than say 10% of a popular vote, in my estimate).
Yes of course everything is possible in politics, CopperLine and I have given my version of it, based on purely on what was suppose to be a "peace plan settlement" that was Racist, Undemocratic, Anti EU Principles, Human Rights violation, International Law violations, an Apartheid system to name a few, a totally unworkable plan which was a "perfect storm" for disaster that would have made the 1960 constitution a child's play. The whole AP required everyone to accept the "goodwill" of everyone involved that this plan could work, but anytime the "goodwill" was taken away, it would have fallen down like a house of cards. And who were we suppose to expect the "goodwill" from.?? Well, no other than all the same ones who had not lived up to their responsibilities in the past, but in fact continue to violate their responsibilities even today. Call be a pessimist if you want, but just like I wouldn't get on a plane when one of it's engines is held by a duct tape and has missing fan blades, few missing tyres on it's landing gear, few missing windows in the fuselage, and the captain is drunk in the front passed out, no matter how much the flight attendant may want to assure me that we will have a smooth flight and that we will reach our destination intact.!
CopperLine wrote:OK so AP had problems but we all know that current and future negotiations have taken AP as a basic default from which new (and not so new) variations have been discussed. The UN and the EU are publicly committed to some variant (albeit under different names) and RoC, TRNC and RoT negotiators have all publicly stated, repeatedly, their commitment to a UN-EU backed process. There is only one game in town, it is AP version 2.0 or X.whatever.
Yes, the AP did have problems, major problems, but just because a better one is not being produced when it can be, you are asking everyone to get aboard that "sick plane" as I've described above, since it's the only plane available. Errr, no thanks.! I don't care what the next plan is called, that is not the point nor is it important. Call it AP whatever. It is not the name that is disliked, just it's content. Keep the name, but change it's contents.!
CopperLine wrote:Of course states can renege on an agreement, but this is not peculiar to Turkey. In fact regarding the Cyprus question, the RoC has more to be embarassed about reneging on agreements, not least regarding EU accession. But let's not bicker about that. Any agreement is as strong as the reasons for compliance and the costs of 'defection'. In my view there were huge interests for Turkey to honour AP commitments. To use a contrary aphorism "Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves."
There is a difference between reneging on issues by outfoxing your opponents who intend on harming you, as the case was to get into the EU first no matter and reneging on all of one's responsibilities to keep the peace for all one supposed to protect island-wide. The main actors we were asked to rely on had failed Cyprus big time. Asking them to be our future "Guardian Angels" would have been like asking "Jack the Ripper" to become our chief surgeon.! Errr, no thanks.!
CopperLine wrote:I simply don't buy your nightmare scenario on Turkish immigration and citizenship claims post Annan. There is absolutely no evidence from the rest of the EU enlargement process that 'fortress Europe' has been weakened in the way you alarm.
Can you show me a place in the EU member states where Turkey has a control/influence of a EU member state like she would have had on the "TC state" whether it was part of the Union in Cyprus, or worse, as an independent sovereign state and a EU member. The answer is a NO. Therefore you cannot make a comparison, CopperLine.
CopperLine wrote:On the last point, I stand by every word of it. (Although you should note that that was a comment about recognition and declaration of independence. The ICJ case was solely about the declaration of independence in international law, not recognition. Recognition is a national political question and not a matter of international law).
I'm glad that you stand by your above statement you made over 3 years ago, CopperLine, because there is a lot of truth to it, which is also why I base my concerns on when we have a damaged and corrupted plan like the AP of 2004. The conversation when you made those statements were not about the ICJ however, but more about the ECHR. Here is the link if you want to look back.
http://www.cyprus-forum.com/viewtopic.p ... c&start=10
Copperline, you may be asking the question as to why "Kikapu" as a TC, doesn't like the AP as 65% of those in the north did in 2004. The answer is, if I was interested in another crises as in 1963 which I lived through, I would be all for it, and with the Turkish Army in Cyprus, the TCs would be in a winning side to partition the island permanently. The only problem is, the war in Cyprus would not be over and will once again re-appear. Time Does Not Stand Still. Secondly, it will be the beginning of the end of the TCs as we know them. The TCs will disappear by Turkey and the Turks. Osmosis would take place without the chance of ever reversing it. I know we have few mindless idiot who wouldn't mind seeing that happen, claiming that they have their roots in Turkey and that they are "Turkish" even after 450 years living on the island of Cyprus. I cannot take part in the cultural genocide of my own people. What the GCs couldn't /wouldn't do to us in the last 450 years, we TCs are now a willing participants of our own extinction of the TC culture and heritage. It doesn't have to be that way. We can all get what we want with the GCs, and in the 21st century as a EU member, we are now not were we were in the middle of the last century. Times have changes, and so must the Cypriots. A good compromise as I see it from a Unitary state of the past is to have a BBF based on True Democracy, True Federation, Human Rights, EU Principles and International Laws. Anything less, would be like getting on that "sick plane".!