Cyprus-Forum.com

[Cap]

Its only a matter of time you foolish Greeks just beg for Turkey to come kick you ass again, like you did the last time and for sure it will come.

You guys getting itchy again ?

lol
Yes, that's nice son, run along now.

[Get Real!]

Its only a matter of time you foolish Greeks just beg for Turkey to come kick you ass again, like you did the last time and for sure it will come.

You guys getting itchy again ?

...and you want us to help you find the owner of a car?

Crucify him on the fig tree…

[Byron]

Its only a matter of time you foolish Greeks just beg for Turkey to come kick you ass again, like you did the last time and for sure it will come.

You guys getting itchy again ?

Please, please do come and kick our ass again ! we really need it ! What are you waiting for !

Better one minute of freedom than 36 years of slavery!

[Kikapu]

I don't see Turkey saying "we are withdrawing our EU application". If they have made up their minds that they are not interested in the EU, why not walk away with dignity. Is it because their economy would do a nose dive along with the Turkish Lira.? ......

Now, had the AP passed in 2004, Turkey would have had a lot of influence in the EU through the TCs, so I guess she will try and try again to get another AP to pass. I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you or Turkey.!

The odds of the markets believing Turkey will not get in is minimal, even at its peak a few years ago it was less than 60%. Turkey not getting into the EU is already priced into the risk associated with Turkish assets.

I happen to believe that the Turkish Market is still mostly already priced in for her EU entry and any deviation from that course of action will be curtains for Turkey. The Turkish Lira had already lost as much as 60% against some major world currencies in the last 2 years, most likely because of her not conforming to EU's requests on many fronts, which Cyprus problem is just one of Turkey's headaches with the EU and not just because of the world financial crises. The only major world currency that's been doing as badly as the Turkish Lira has been the British Pound in the last 2 years and the Euro due to the Greece's financial problems, but even the Euro has started to recover lately.

Back to the control over Cyprus by Turkey if AP approved, to give Turkey leverage in EU. Kikapu, consider there are 735 MEPs in Europe, next consider how much influence 2 TC MEPs would have. Incorporate that AP foreign policy was decided at the Federal level not local. See why the argument continues to not make sense?

Açikgöz, I don't mean to be disrespectful, but you are always seeing the AP as a one dimensional entity, a "Peace Plan", just like you saw the 1960 Constitution of Cyprus in a one dimensional way. We all know that the AP by far was worse than the 1960 agreements were, and look how long that had lasted, about 3 years. What, how and who did what is not important as to why it only lasted 3 years. The point is, it was a very bad document, therefore it did not last, just because is wasn't design to last. It was designed to create problems and conflicts between the Cypriots, and it did. The AP had the same goal in mind and same would have happened if it had passed. It was inevitable, just because it was going to be confederation system with the north and south becoming the FOUNDING STATES in the form of "virgin birth" on the New United Cyprus. What that meant was, all of Cyprus would become a EU member and when the whole AP was going to become unworkable by design just because bombs and killings would have started deliberately as the case was in the past, either one of the two Founding states would and could have asked to detach themselves from the union. At this point, the EU would have had to deal with 2 state emerging from one and I doubt the EU could have prevented both the Founding states from becoming independent states as EU members. This would have put Turkey in the driving seat to influence the EU through the north Founding state as a EU member, the "TCs", while at the same time, still being a guarantor power for the whole island per the Annan Plan. The "TC" state at that time would have had a veto rights in the EU and would have used it to blackmail the EU to allow Turkey in with all her faults. Just like how Greece was accused of blackmailing the EU to let Cyprus in.

That was one possible outcome. The other was, if the EU made it clear that the Founding states would not become EU members as independent states, then they may not break the union but, as Founding states, they still each had a veto power on the governments workings, that would have prevented the government of United Cyprus to perform her duties in the EU, just because Turkey would have pulled all the strings on the "TCs" as they do now. The whole United Cyprus would have been brought to it's knees as a EU member by Turkey. Soon violence would have erupted to force the EU into accepting two separate states to emerge from one and for them to remain as a EU member.

The third possibility could have been, that upon the AP passing and the new United Cyprus came to be, the EU could have refused her entry into the EU club citing that the EU application was made by the RoC and EU membership was granted to the RoC only and not to some entity called the "New United Cyprus" since both the "trnc" and the RoC would have ceased to exist after the AP's referendum. All there was were just two communities who had agreed on non Democratic, non International laws, Human Rights violations, Racist and Apartheid kind of a plan with Turkey with her troops on the island along with the settlers to work things out. I don't think I need to tell you what the outcome of that situation was going to be like since the RoC was no longer a independent sovereign country but a one of two communities and Turkey as their guardians. From then on, Turkey would have ruled supreme.!

That's how Turkey would have had influence in the EU, and not with the 2 TC EU MEP's if Cyprus had become a normal democratic country after the 2004 referendum. That was not what was going to happen, which explains the reason why the GCs said OXI to the AP.!

Sorry for the delay in getting back to you on your post, Açikgöz.!!:oops:

After AP Turkey could not have any control over Cyprus
Firstly the AP was announced dead by the GCs very soon after the referendum. 6 years later, it seems the will of TCs is also to pronounce the AP dead.

You don't say, Açikgöz, really.!:roll:

Did you figure all that out all by yourself.??

1. AP worse than 1960 constitution => problems experienced in 1960 leading to destruction of constitution in 3 years would mean AP doomed to destruction.

They were both the destructive, only 2004 was worse than 1960.

1960 constitution never was given a chance to work, the GC desire of Enosis was the driving factor that was not prevalent in 2004.

1960 constitution was never meant to work, because of Enosis and Taksim Dreams. In 2004, there was only Taksim dreams, is the main reason why it failed.

The AP was complicated and not fluid, but neither were the concerns and deeprooted mistrust that required buffers to protect each side's concerns.

It was made to be complicated, so that it wouldn't work. It was designed to fail, hence the reason why it was worse than 1960.

For this reason the AP was never 1 dimensional but multi-dimensional.

I keep telling you the AP was not one dimentional, but that's how you pretend to see it as a "peace plan" when it wasn't. It must be a genetic defect amongst the NeoPartitionist.!:wink:

As a river steadily meanders and over time erodes the sides that cause the least friction. The NO vote was the servicing of the dam that didn't allow the water to flow.
It was designed to allay fears.

Was that meant to be poetry or what.?

2. When you write about such things, I notice there is always a "boogie monster" in the shape of Turkey and what its drive was and its ambitions, you ignore realities. If you need to place apportion ill-intent, you have to consider those that relate to the counter. If you want to apply 1 dimensional thought then this would be a much more relevant example.

That's because Turkey is in Cyprus for herself, and not for the TCs. That's the least complicated part of the present situation in Cyprus to understand if one had an open mind..!

3. Please review the articles of the dead and buried AP:

Article 5 The federal government
1. The federal Parliament composed of two chambers, the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies, shall exercise the legislative power:
a. Each Chamber shall have 48 members. The Senate shall be composed of an equal number of Senators from each constituent state. The Chamber of Deputies shall be composed in proportion to persons holding internal constituent state citizenship status of each constituent state, provided that each constituent state shall be attributed no less than one quarter of seats.
b. Decisions of Parliament shall require the approval of both Chambers by simple majority, including one quarter of voting Senators from each constituent state. For specified matters, a special majority of two-fifths of sitting Senators from each constituent state shall be required.


Article 14 Competences and functions of the federal government
1. The federal government shall, in accordance with this Constitution, sovereignly exercise legislative and executive competences in the following matters:
a. External relations, including conclusion of international treaties and defence policy;8
b. Relations with the European Union;9

8 Reference: Defence policy must be formulated and exercised in accordance with agreed security arrangements, and the international obligations of Cyprus.
9 Observation: This power authorises the federal government to take necessary measures for the participation of Cyprus in the Economic and Monetary Union, the Common European Defence (non-military matters) and Security Policy and the “closer cooperation” within the meaning of the Treaty on the European Union.

Totally unworkable.!

With this in mind, TCs could not veto anything in the EU as it pertains to Turkey.

Sure they could.

Article 19 Cyprus as a member of the European Union

1. The United Cyprus Republic shall be a member of the European Union.
2. The governments of the constituent states shall participate in the formulation of the policy of Cyprus in the European Union.

They could resist an aggressive stance by GCs, but not blackmail anyone. They would have no ability to veto anything.

The whole procedure of the senate had a veto built in the system for all sides. Perfect receipe for disaster.

Moving to the Lisbon treaty, even less say as the EU moves towards greater proportional representation. The comparison of the TCs with Greece is not valid in these circumstances.

Lisbon treaty did not reflect on how each sovereign states vote within their own borders, but only voting withing the EU itself in certain situations to the best of my knowledge.

Your third point does not warrant an answer.

There is nothing to warrant your argument on Turkey having control over Cyprus if the dead and buried AP was to have been voted in.

Of course it did. Turkey was going to be the "supreme leader" in Cyprus in all corners of the island regardless what the south & north states did after the AP's YES. You just seeing everything with the AP as a one dimentional "peace plan"!

What the Markets Tells us of Turkey and EU relation
If you want to go by the currencies as an indicator, then you must consider what has happened in the last 2 years - the flow of money into safe haven currencies and to underline the point Gold.

No, it's not just currency indicators, but it does give a strong hint as to where the countries economy is on the whole. But if you are saying Turkey has put most of her currency into Gold Reserves, then surely that would support her currency to be strong.! It hasn't against other major currencies.

Against which countries has TRY lost value in your example? USD, JPY, CHF. All perceived as safe haven countries by investors.
CAD has its own macroeconomic miracle that makes it unique in the current climate.
Against which were it neutral? GBP and EUR.

Would you also say Russia or Mexico had issues with the EU and that is why their paths are similar to Turkey?

Mexican Peso and the Russian Ruble are on the same par as the Turkish Lira. They too suck against world's mojor currencies.

I realised when I read through my eariler post I placed big ambiguity with the following 2 sentences:

The odds of the markets believing Turkey will not get in is minimal, even at its peak a few years ago it was less than 60%. Turkey not getting into the EU is already priced into the risk associated with Turkish assets.

Remove the word "not" from the first sentence and that is what I meant.

No problem.! I did notice the "not" already.!

I happen to believe that the Turkish Market is still mostly already priced in for her EU entry and any deviation from that course of action will be curtains for Turkey. The Turkish Lira had already lost as much as 60% against some major world currencies in the last 2 years, most likely because of her not conforming to EU's requests on many fronts, which Cyprus problem is just one of Turkey's headaches with the EU and not just because of the world financial crises. The only major world currency that's been doing as badly as the Turkish Lira has been the British Pound in the last 2 years and the Euro due to the Greece's financial problems, but even the Euro has started to recover lately.

Sorry Kikapu, but your argument has no basis.

But of course not, Açikgöz.!:lol: