Kikapu wrote:I don't see Turkey saying "we are withdrawing our EU application". If they have made up their minds that they are not interested in the EU, why not walk away with dignity. Is it because their economy would do a nose dive along with the Turkish Lira.? ......
Now, had the AP passed in 2004, Turkey would have had a lot of influence in the EU through the TCs, so I guess she will try and try again to get another AP to pass. I wouldn't hold my breath if I were you or Turkey.!
Acikgoz wrote:The odds of the markets believing Turkey will not get in is minimal, even at its peak a few years ago it was less than 60%. Turkey not getting into the EU is already priced into the risk associated with Turkish assets.
I happen to believe that the Turkish Market is still mostly already priced in for her EU entry and any deviation from that course of action will be curtains for Turkey. The Turkish Lira had already lost as much as 60% against some major world currencies in the last 2 years, most likely because of her not conforming to EU's requests on many fronts, which Cyprus problem is just one of Turkey's headaches with the EU and not just because of the world financial crises. The only major world currency that's been doing as badly as the Turkish Lira has been the British Pound in the last 2 years and the Euro due to the Greece's financial problems, but even the Euro has started to recover lately.
Acikgoz wrote:Back to the control over Cyprus by Turkey if AP approved, to give Turkey leverage in EU. Kikapu, consider there are 735 MEPs in Europe, next consider how much influence 2 TC MEPs would have. Incorporate that AP foreign policy was decided at the Federal level not local. See why the argument continues to not make sense?
Açikgöz, I don't mean to be disrespectful, but you are always seeing the AP as a one dimensional entity, a "Peace Plan", just like you saw the 1960 Constitution of Cyprus in a one dimensional way. We all know that the AP by far was worse than the 1960 agreements were, and look how long that had lasted, about 3 years. What, how and who did what is not important as to why it only lasted 3 years. The point is, it was a very bad document, therefore it did not last, just because is wasn't design to last. It was designed to create problems and conflicts between the Cypriots, and it did. The AP had the same goal in mind and same would have happened if it had passed. It was inevitable, just because it was going to be confederation system with the north and south becoming the FOUNDING STATES in the form of "virgin birth" on the New United Cyprus. What that meant was, all of Cyprus would become a EU member and when the whole AP was going to become unworkable by design just because bombs and killings would have started deliberately as the case was in the past, either one of the two Founding states would and could have asked to detach themselves from the union. At this point, the EU would have had to deal with 2 state emerging from one and I doubt the EU could have prevented both the Founding states from becoming independent states as EU members. This would have put Turkey in the driving seat to influence the EU through the north Founding state as a EU member, the "TCs", while at the same time, still being a guarantor power for the whole island per the Annan Plan. The "TC" state at that time would have had a veto rights in the EU and would have used it to blackmail the EU to allow Turkey in with all her faults. Just like how Greece was accused of blackmailing the EU to let Cyprus in.
That was one possible outcome. The other was, if the EU made it clear that the Founding states would not become EU members as independent states, then they may not break the union but, as Founding states, they still each had a veto power on the governments workings, that would have prevented the government of United Cyprus to perform her duties in the EU, just because Turkey would have pulled all the strings on the "TCs" as they do now. The whole United Cyprus would have been brought to it's knees as a EU member by Turkey. Soon violence would have erupted to force the EU into accepting two separate states to emerge from one and for them to remain as a EU member.
The third possibility could have been, that upon the AP passing and the new United Cyprus came to be, the EU could have refused her entry into the EU club citing that the EU application was made by the RoC and EU membership was granted to the RoC only and not to some entity called the "New United Cyprus" since both the "trnc" and the RoC would have ceased to exist after the AP's referendum. All there was were just two communities who had agreed on non Democratic, non International laws, Human Rights violations, Racist and Apartheid kind of a plan with Turkey with her troops on the island along with the settlers to work things out. I don't think I need to tell you what the outcome of that situation was going to be like since the RoC was no longer a independent sovereign country but a one of two communities and Turkey as their guardians. From then on, Turkey would have ruled supreme.!
That's how Turkey would have had influence in the EU, and not with the 2 TC EU MEP's if Cyprus had become a normal democratic country after the 2004 referendum. That was not what was going to happen, which explains the reason why the GCs said OXI to the AP.!