-mikkie2- wrote: Things will be much clearer at the end of August after the COREPER meeting which will formalise the start (or not) of of Turkish negotiations.
They certainly will
-mikkie2- wrote:
France is the 1st large EU country to openly question Turkeys announcement re the Ankara agreement concerning Cyprus. Germany will also be doing the same especially if the Christian Democrats come to power in September. The German press is full of negative sentiment towards Turkey regarding the protocol.
If these countries that previsouly agreed the terms placed on Turkey for the start of Turkish acession, then decide to move the goal posts, it can onlt encourage Turkey to abbandon it's efforts to joion the EU - and if that happens where does that leave the GC 'policy' on gaining a solution?
You beleive that if Turkey is forced to chose between recognising and legitimise the RoC as it now exists and as the sole government for all of Cyprus (essentialy abandoning the TRNC and TC) or abandoning EU accession - that they will choose the former. I do not believe they will do this or even can do this without risking political turmoil in Turkey.
So what if the EU does what you want and Turkey abandons its persuit of EU accession? What then happens to your GC strategy of a 'EU solution' to the Cyprus problem? What happens then to Cyprus? To me this 'strategy' is similar to previous GC strategies, where they risk all and push us all to the edge of the cliff in the persuit of maximalist demands. In 74 this strategy culminated in Cyprus falling over the cliff and the results were disasterous. I fear this may be the result agains if GC persue similar strategies.
I believe the RoC should accpet why Turkey can not give them everything they want (recognition of the RoC as it stands today in return for allowing the start of a process that is not guaranteed to achieve accession at the end and due to take 15 years plus to complete). They should accpet a functional 'recognition' but not demand a formal 'political recognition' and should accpet that this later will come as part of a comprehensive agreed solutiuon. I also believe they should stop all the 'rehtoric' about how impossible it is for Turkey to begin accession process unless they get their maximal demand of formal poltical recognition of the RoC as it exits today as the sole legal government of all Cyprus and all Cypriots. It is perfectly possible for Turkey to start acession talks with only a 'functional' recognition of the current RoC that preculdes full formal political recognition pending a comprehensive agreed solution in Cyprus, provided of course that the RoC choses to not try and force it's maximal demands on Turkey and TC and in the process 'risk all' but accepts that an agreed negotiatied process of give and take is the right way to solve the Cyprus problem (and in doing so remove the ultimate block on Turkish accession that is due to take 15years +)
-mikkie2- wrote:It cannot be possible for Turkey to start opening chapters for negotiation when Cyprus will be sitting round the same table as Turkey.
If it were impossible, in the collective view of the EU at the last heads of states meeting, for Turkey to start the accession process without full and formal recognition of the RoC as it stabds today - then the collective voice of the EU would have said that. They did not - so clearly they decided then that it was NOT impossible. They may of course change their view on that if they wish to make collective agreements with other nations and then break those agrements.
-mikkie2- wrote:This is actually more a matter of principle for these states than anything else.
With respect - what rubbish. Why was in not a point of principle when the EU collectively (including the RoC) agreed that formal and total recognition of the RoC was NOT a requirment for the start of talks? This is politicis and nothing but politics. Politics of the RoC trying to use Turkish accession to secure 'froced' maximal demands vs an agreed negotiatied and compromise solution and the politics of those forces in the EU oopsosed to Turksih accesion using the 'Cyprus problem' (and by extension using all cypriots) to acheive their aim of blocking Turkish entry.
-mikkie2- wrote:We shall see what transpires.
Indeed we will.